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Title: A Robust Increase of the Intraseasonal Periodic Behavior of the Precipitation and Eddy Kinetic Energy in a Warming Climate

Abstract

Precipitation and storm track activity in the Southern Hemisphere feature a remarkable 25-day periodicity known as Baroclinic Annular Mode, which is more robust in austral summer. However, it is unclear how this mode of variability will change in a warming climate. Using climate model projections following the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario, this work finds a robust increase of intra-seasonal variability of the precipitation and density weighted eddy kinetic energy preferentially at the 25-day frequency range by 25% and 20% respectively in austral summer toward the end of the century, despite small changes in seasonal mean quantities at corresponding latitudes. These results suggest that a warming climate could feature a stronger dynamical organization of the 25-day periodicity by the moist baroclinic waves in summer, and for the austral winter, the weak 25-day periodicity in the current climate will become a prominent mode of periodic variability toward the end of the century.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)
  2. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1490195
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-131409
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 45; Journal Issue: 15; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 58 GEOSCIENCES; intraseasonal variability; baroclinic annular mode; precipitation; eddy kinetic energy; storm track; climate change

Citation Formats

Wang, Lei, Lu, Jian, and Kuang, Zhiming. A Robust Increase of the Intraseasonal Periodic Behavior of the Precipitation and Eddy Kinetic Energy in a Warming Climate. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1029/2018GL078495.
Wang, Lei, Lu, Jian, & Kuang, Zhiming. A Robust Increase of the Intraseasonal Periodic Behavior of the Precipitation and Eddy Kinetic Energy in a Warming Climate. United States. doi:10.1029/2018GL078495.
Wang, Lei, Lu, Jian, and Kuang, Zhiming. Tue . "A Robust Increase of the Intraseasonal Periodic Behavior of the Precipitation and Eddy Kinetic Energy in a Warming Climate". United States. doi:10.1029/2018GL078495. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1490195.
@article{osti_1490195,
title = {A Robust Increase of the Intraseasonal Periodic Behavior of the Precipitation and Eddy Kinetic Energy in a Warming Climate},
author = {Wang, Lei and Lu, Jian and Kuang, Zhiming},
abstractNote = {Precipitation and storm track activity in the Southern Hemisphere feature a remarkable 25-day periodicity known as Baroclinic Annular Mode, which is more robust in austral summer. However, it is unclear how this mode of variability will change in a warming climate. Using climate model projections following the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario, this work finds a robust increase of intra-seasonal variability of the precipitation and density weighted eddy kinetic energy preferentially at the 25-day frequency range by 25% and 20% respectively in austral summer toward the end of the century, despite small changes in seasonal mean quantities at corresponding latitudes. These results suggest that a warming climate could feature a stronger dynamical organization of the 25-day periodicity by the moist baroclinic waves in summer, and for the austral winter, the weak 25-day periodicity in the current climate will become a prominent mode of periodic variability toward the end of the century.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL078495},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 15,
volume = 45,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {6}
}

Journal Article:
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Figures / Tables:

Figure 1 Figure 1: The robust increase of the precipitation intraseasonal variability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble simulations. (a and e) The power spectrum of satellite observed rain rate AMSR-E, (b and f) 40-member ensemble-mean rain rate from CESM Large Ensemble historical simulations (1975–2005), and (c and g)more » corresponding rain rate in the RCP 8.5 scenario (2070–2100). Note the different color bar range for the AMSR-E results and CESM results. (d and h) Ensemble-mean seasonal-mean zonal-mean rain rate from CESM Large Ensemble historical period (dashed) and RCP 8.5 period (solid). The upper panels show the austral summer (December–March), and the lower panels show austral winter (June–September). The power spectrum of rain rate has a unit of 100-16 m2, and the rain rate has a unit of ms-1.« less

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    Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.