A Robust Increase of the Intraseasonal Periodic Behavior of the Precipitation and Eddy Kinetic Energy in a Warming Climate
Abstract
Precipitation and storm track activity in the Southern Hemisphere feature a remarkable 25-day periodicity known as Baroclinic Annular Mode, which is more robust in austral summer. However, it is unclear how this mode of variability will change in a warming climate. Using climate model projections following the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario, this work finds a robust increase of intra-seasonal variability of the precipitation and density weighted eddy kinetic energy preferentially at the 25-day frequency range by 25% and 20% respectively in austral summer toward the end of the century, despite small changes in seasonal mean quantities at corresponding latitudes. These results suggest that a warming climate could feature a stronger dynamical organization of the 25-day periodicity by the moist baroclinic waves in summer, and for the austral winter, the weak 25-day periodicity in the current climate will become a prominent mode of periodic variability toward the end of the century.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
[1]
- Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1490195
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-131409
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 45; Journal Issue: 15; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 58 GEOSCIENCES; intraseasonal variability; baroclinic annular mode; precipitation; eddy kinetic energy; storm track; climate change
Citation Formats
Wang, Lei, Lu, Jian, and Kuang, Zhiming. A Robust Increase of the Intraseasonal Periodic Behavior of the Precipitation and Eddy Kinetic Energy in a Warming Climate. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1029/2018GL078495.
Wang, Lei, Lu, Jian, & Kuang, Zhiming. A Robust Increase of the Intraseasonal Periodic Behavior of the Precipitation and Eddy Kinetic Energy in a Warming Climate. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078495
Wang, Lei, Lu, Jian, and Kuang, Zhiming. Tue .
"A Robust Increase of the Intraseasonal Periodic Behavior of the Precipitation and Eddy Kinetic Energy in a Warming Climate". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078495. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1490195.
@article{osti_1490195,
title = {A Robust Increase of the Intraseasonal Periodic Behavior of the Precipitation and Eddy Kinetic Energy in a Warming Climate},
author = {Wang, Lei and Lu, Jian and Kuang, Zhiming},
abstractNote = {Precipitation and storm track activity in the Southern Hemisphere feature a remarkable 25-day periodicity known as Baroclinic Annular Mode, which is more robust in austral summer. However, it is unclear how this mode of variability will change in a warming climate. Using climate model projections following the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario, this work finds a robust increase of intra-seasonal variability of the precipitation and density weighted eddy kinetic energy preferentially at the 25-day frequency range by 25% and 20% respectively in austral summer toward the end of the century, despite small changes in seasonal mean quantities at corresponding latitudes. These results suggest that a warming climate could feature a stronger dynamical organization of the 25-day periodicity by the moist baroclinic waves in summer, and for the austral winter, the weak 25-day periodicity in the current climate will become a prominent mode of periodic variability toward the end of the century.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL078495},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 15,
volume = 45,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Jun 05 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Tue Jun 05 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
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Figures / Tables:
Figure 1: The robust increase of the precipitation intraseasonal variability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble simulations. (a and e) The power spectrum of satellite observed rain rate AMSR-E, (b and f) 40-member ensemble-mean rain rate from CESM Large Ensemble historical simulations (1975–2005), and (c and g)more »
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