A Holistic View of Water Management Impacts on Future Droughts: A Global Multimodel Analysis
Abstract
Abstract This study investigates the impacts of climate change and water management including agricultural irrigation, water withdrawal, and reservoir regulation on future meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts and their connections. The analysis is based on the simulations from four global hydrological models forced with the projections from five global climate models for historical period 1971–2000 and future period 2070–2099 with and without water management. Three unified drought indices, the standardized precipitation index, standardized soil moisture index, and standardized streamflow index, are adopted to represent the meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts, respectively. The analysis suggests that the climate‐induced drought changes in all three types of droughts are enhanced but in different directions, while water‐management‐induced changes in agricultural and hydrological droughts are more consistent across space and simulations. Overall, water management activities reduce both the duration and intensity of agricultural droughts by roughly 1 order of magnitude, while increase those of hydrological droughts by up to 50%. Basin‐scale analysis reveals that the higher is the intensity of irrigation, the larger will be the water‐management‐induced drought changes. Due to water management activities at some regions, the return periods of extreme agricultural droughts (in terms of severity) can change from 100 to 300 years ormore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
[3];
[4];
[2];
[6];
- Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States)
- Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)
- Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States)
- Clemson Univ., SC (United States)
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (United States)
- Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China); China Institute of Hydropower and Water Resources, Beijing (China)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1489902
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1441244
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-129690
Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830; DE‐AC05‐76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 123; Journal Issue: 11; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Wan, Wenhua, Zhao, Jianshi, Li, Hong-Yi, Mishra, Ashok, Hejazi, Mohamad, Lu, Hui, Demissie, Yonas, and Wang, Hao. A Holistic View of Water Management Impacts on Future Droughts: A Global Multimodel Analysis. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1029/2017JD027825.
Wan, Wenhua, Zhao, Jianshi, Li, Hong-Yi, Mishra, Ashok, Hejazi, Mohamad, Lu, Hui, Demissie, Yonas, & Wang, Hao. A Holistic View of Water Management Impacts on Future Droughts: A Global Multimodel Analysis. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD027825
Wan, Wenhua, Zhao, Jianshi, Li, Hong-Yi, Mishra, Ashok, Hejazi, Mohamad, Lu, Hui, Demissie, Yonas, and Wang, Hao. Wed .
"A Holistic View of Water Management Impacts on Future Droughts: A Global Multimodel Analysis". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD027825. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1489902.
@article{osti_1489902,
title = {A Holistic View of Water Management Impacts on Future Droughts: A Global Multimodel Analysis},
author = {Wan, Wenhua and Zhao, Jianshi and Li, Hong-Yi and Mishra, Ashok and Hejazi, Mohamad and Lu, Hui and Demissie, Yonas and Wang, Hao},
abstractNote = {Abstract This study investigates the impacts of climate change and water management including agricultural irrigation, water withdrawal, and reservoir regulation on future meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts and their connections. The analysis is based on the simulations from four global hydrological models forced with the projections from five global climate models for historical period 1971–2000 and future period 2070–2099 with and without water management. Three unified drought indices, the standardized precipitation index, standardized soil moisture index, and standardized streamflow index, are adopted to represent the meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts, respectively. The analysis suggests that the climate‐induced drought changes in all three types of droughts are enhanced but in different directions, while water‐management‐induced changes in agricultural and hydrological droughts are more consistent across space and simulations. Overall, water management activities reduce both the duration and intensity of agricultural droughts by roughly 1 order of magnitude, while increase those of hydrological droughts by up to 50%. Basin‐scale analysis reveals that the higher is the intensity of irrigation, the larger will be the water‐management‐induced drought changes. Due to water management activities at some regions, the return periods of extreme agricultural droughts (in terms of severity) can change from 100 to 300 years or even longer, while typical 100‐year hydrological droughts are likely to occur more often for the regions located in 25°N–40°N and 15°S–50°S. This study provides a global view on drought modification in the Anthropocene, which will help improve adaptation strategies for future droughts.},
doi = {10.1029/2017JD027825},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = 11,
volume = 123,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed May 23 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Wed May 23 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Cited by: 20 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Figures / Tables:
Table 1: Five Global Climate Models of ISI-MIP-FT From CMIP5 Used for This Study
All figures and tables
(19 total)
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 1: Model description and input meteorological forcing
journal, January 2008
- Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 12, Issue 4
Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model
journal, January 2016
- Kim, Son H.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Liu, Lu
- Climatic Change, Vol. 136, Issue 2
A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models
journal, January 1994
- Liang, Xu; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Wood, Eric F.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 99, Issue D7
Impact of Human Intervention and Climate Change on Natural Flow Regime
journal, November 2015
- Mittal, Neha; Bhave, Ajay Gajanan; Mishra, Ashok
- Water Resources Management, Vol. 30, Issue 2
Identification of changes in hydrological drought characteristics from a multi-GCM driven ensemble constrained by observed discharge
journal, May 2014
- van Huijgevoort, M. H. J.; van Lanen, H. A. J.; Teuling, A. J.
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 512
How representative is the spread of climate projections from the 5 CMIP5 GCMs used in ISI-MIP?
journal, March 2016
- McSweeney, Carol F.; Jones, Richard G.
- Climate Services, Vol. 1
Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison
journal, December 2013
- Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
Global warming and changes in drought
journal, December 2013
- Trenberth, Kevin E.; Dai, Aiguo; van der Schrier, Gerard
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 1
A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
journal, April 2010
- Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Beguería, Santiago; López-Moreno, Juan I.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 7
Model-Based Drought Indices over the United States
journal, December 2008
- Mo, Kingtse C.
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 9, Issue 6
Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations
journal, November 2007
- Sheffield, Justin; Wood, Eric F.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 31, Issue 1
Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment
journal, December 2013
- Prudhomme, Christel; Giuntoli, Ignazio; Robinson, Emma L.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
Multivariate assessment of droughts: Frequency analysis and dynamic return period: Multivariate Assessment of Droughts
journal, October 2013
- De Michele, C.; Salvadori, G.; Vezzoli, R.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 49, Issue 10
The ability of a GCM-forced hydrological model to reproduce global discharge variability
journal, January 2010
- Sperna Weiland, F. C.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Kwadijk, J. C. J.
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 14, Issue 8
Climate Change and Drought: a Perspective on Drought Indices
journal, April 2018
- Mukherjee, Sourav; Mishra, Ashok; Trenberth, Kevin E.
- Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 4, Issue 2
Review of complex networks application in hydroclimatic extremes with an implementation to characterize spatio-temporal drought propagation in continental USA
journal, December 2017
- Konapala, Goutam; Mishra, Ashok
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 555
Ecosystem resilience despite large-scale altered hydroclimatic conditions
journal, January 2013
- Ponce-Campos, Guillermo E.; Moran, M. Susan; Huete, Alfredo
- Nature, Vol. 494, Issue 7437
Creation of the WATCH Forcing Data and Its Use to Assess Global and Regional Reference Crop Evaporation over Land during the Twentieth Century
journal, October 2011
- Weedon, G. P.; Gomes, S.; Viterbo, P.
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 12, Issue 5
Modeling hydrologic and ecologic responses using a new eco-hydrological model for identification of droughts
journal, July 2014
- Sawada, Yohei; Koike, Toshio; Jaranilla-Sanchez, Patricia Ann
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 50, Issue 7
Uncertainty in the determination of soil hydraulic parameters and its influence on the performance of two hydrological models of different complexity
journal, January 2010
- Baroni, G.; Facchi, A.; Gandolfi, C.
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 14, Issue 2
Increase in the range between wet and dry season precipitation
journal, March 2013
- Chou, Chia; Chiang, John C. H.; Lan, Chia-Wei
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 6, Issue 4
Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming
journal, November 2006
- Held, Isaac M.; Soden, Brian J.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 21
Anthropogenic impacts on continental surface water fluxes
journal, January 2006
- Haddeland, Ingjerd; Skaugen, Thomas; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, Issue 8
Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability
journal, July 2017
- Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 7, Issue 1
Accurate Computation of a Streamflow Drought Index
journal, February 2012
- Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; López-Moreno, Juan I.; Beguería, Santiago
- Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 17, Issue 2
Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime
journal, January 2015
- Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.; Van Lanen, H. A. J.
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 6, Issue 1
Modeling global water use for the 21st century: the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches
journal, January 2016
- Wada, Y.; Flörke, M.; Hanasaki, N.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 1
Global projections of changing risks of floods and droughts in a changing climate
journal, August 2008
- Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Emori, Seita
- Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 53, Issue 4
Water security assessment using blue and green water footprint concepts
journal, November 2016
- Veettil, Anoop Valiya; Mishra, Ashok K.
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 542
Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations
journal, August 2004
- Murphy, James M.; Sexton, David M. H.; Barnett, David N.
- Nature, Vol. 430, Issue 7001
The water needs for LDV transportation in the United States
journal, February 2010
- King, Carey W.; Webber, Michael E.; Duncan, Ian J.
- Energy Policy, Vol. 38, Issue 2
Regional frequency analysis of annual maximum streamflow drought
journal, December 1995
- Clausen, B.; Pearson, C. P.
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 173, Issue 1-4
Global modeling of withdrawal, allocation and consumptive use of surface water and groundwater resources
journal, January 2014
- Wada, Y.; Wisser, D.; Bierkens, M. F. P.
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 5, Issue 1
21st century climate change in the European Alps—A review
journal, September 2014
- Gobiet, Andreas; Kotlarski, Sven; Beniston, Martin
- Science of The Total Environment, Vol. 493
Analysis of a Sahelian annual rainfall index from 1896 to 2000; the drought continues
journal, August 2002
- L'HÔTe, Yann; MahÉ, Gil; SomÉ, Bonaventure
- Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 47, Issue 4
Human and climate impacts on the 21st century hydrological drought
journal, July 2015
- Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 526
Human water consumption intensifies hydrological drought worldwide
journal, September 2013
- Wada, Yoshihide; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Wanders, Niko
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 8, Issue 3
Multimodel projections and uncertainties of irrigation water demand under climate change: IRRIGATION DEMAND UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE
journal, September 2013
- Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; Eisner, Stephanie
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 17
Drought in the Anthropocene
journal, February 2016
- Van Loon, Anne F.; Gleeson, Tom; Clark, Julian
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 9, Issue 2
A CMIP5 multimodel projection of future temperature, precipitation, and climatological drought in China: A MULTIMODEL PROJECTION OF CLIMATE IN CHINA
journal, September 2013
- Wang, Lin; Chen, Wen
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 34, Issue 6
Are droughts becoming more frequent or severe in China based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index: 1951-2010?: DROUGHTS OVER CHINA BASED ON SPEI: 1951-2010
journal, May 2013
- Yu, Meixiu; Li, Qiongfang; Hayes, Michael J.
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 34, Issue 3
Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change
journal, December 2013
- Haddeland, Ingjerd; Heinke, Jens; Biemans, Hester
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
A multi-model and multi-index evaluation of drought characteristics in the 21st century
journal, July 2015
- Touma, Danielle; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Nayak, Munir A.
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 526
Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate
journal, May 2003
- Kalnay, Eugenia; Cai, Ming
- Nature, Vol. 423, Issue 6939
Impact of reservoirs on river discharge and irrigation water supply during the 20th century: IMPACT OF RESERVOIRS ON DISCHARGE AND IRRIGATION
journal, March 2011
- Biemans, H.; Haddeland, I.; Kabat, P.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 47, Issue 3
Hydrological drought explained: Hydrological drought explained
journal, April 2015
- Van Loon, Anne F.
- Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, Vol. 2, Issue 4
A review of drought concepts
journal, September 2010
- Mishra, Ashok K.; Singh, Vijay P.
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 391, Issue 1-2
ACCEPTING THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX: A CALCULATION ALGORITHM 1
journal, April 1999
- Guttman, Nathaniel B.
- JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 35, Issue 2
Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change
journal, December 2013
- Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
The impact of droughts and water management on various hydrological systems in the headwaters of the Tagus River (central Spain)
journal, May 2010
- Lorenzo-Lacruz, J.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; López-Moreno, J. I.
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 386, Issue 1-4
On the definition of droughts
journal, April 1980
- Dracup, John A.; Lee, Kil Seong; Paulson, Edwin G.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 16, Issue 2
21st century United States emissions mitigation could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mitigating
journal, August 2015
- Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Voisin, Nathalie; Liu, Lu
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 34
Multivariate drought index: An information theory based approach for integrated drought assessment
journal, July 2015
- Rajsekhar, Deepthi; Singh, Vijay. P.; Mishra, Ashok. K.
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 526
Agricultural drought in a future climate: results from 15 global climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment
journal, October 2005
- Wang, Guiling
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 25, Issue 7-8
Impact of climate forcing uncertainty and human water use on global and continental water balance components
journal, January 2016
- Müller Schmied, Hannes; Adam, Linda; Eisner, Stephanie
- Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Vol. 374
Multimodel Estimate of the Global Terrestrial Water Balance: Setup and First Results
journal, October 2011
- Haddeland, Ingjerd; Clark, Douglas B.; Franssen, Wietse
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 12, Issue 5
Drought forecasting using stochastic models
journal, June 2005
- Mishra, A. K.; Desai, V. R.
- Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Vol. 19, Issue 5
Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global water system: GLOBAL WATER USE IN AGRICULTURE
journal, September 2008
- Rost, Stefanie; Gerten, Dieter; Bondeau, Alberte
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 44, Issue 9
The physical drivers of historical and 21st century global precipitation changes
journal, May 2014
- Thorpe, Livia; Andrews, Timothy
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, Issue 6
Climate change impact on meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought in central Illinois: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON DROUGHT
journal, September 2011
- Wang, Dingbao; Hejazi, Mohamad; Cai, Ximing
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 47, Issue 9
Estimating the Impact of Global Change on Flood and Drought Risks in Europe: A Continental, Integrated Analysis
journal, April 2006
- Lehner, Bernhard; Döll, Petra; Alcamo, Joseph
- Climatic Change, Vol. 75, Issue 3
Water, climate change, and sustainability in the southwest
journal, December 2010
- MacDonald, G. M.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 50
Spatio-temporal development of streamflow droughts in north-west Europe
journal, January 2002
- Zaidman, M. D.; Rees, H. G.; Young, A. R.
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 6, Issue 4
High‐resolution mapping of the world's reservoirs and dams for sustainable river‐flow management
journal, May 2011
- Lehner, Bernhard; Liermann, Catherine Reidy; Revenga, Carmen
- Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 9, Issue 9
Do drought management plans reduce drought risk? A risk assessment model for a Mediterranean river basin
journal, April 2012
- Gómez Gómez, Carlos Mario; Pérez Blanco, Carlos Dionisio
- Ecological Economics, Vol. 76
A multimodel assessment of the climate change effect on the drought severity-duration-frequency relationship: CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT ON DROUGHT SEVERITY-DURATION-FREQUENCY RELATION
journal, June 2012
- Lee, Joo Heon; Kim, Chang Joo
- Hydrological Processes, Vol. 27, Issue 19
Correction of TRMM 3B42V7 Based on Linear Regression Models over China
journal, January 2016
- Liu, Shaohua; Yan, Denghua; Qin, Tianling
- Advances in Meteorology, Vol. 2016
Climate change impacts on meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China
journal, March 2015
- Leng, Guoyong; Tang, Qiuhong; Rayburg, Scott
- Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 126
The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework
journal, December 2013
- Warszawski, Lila; Frieler, Katja; Huber, Veronika
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
The Millennium Drought in southeast Australia (2001-2009): Natural and human causes and implications for water resources, ecosystems, economy, and society: CAUSES AND IMPACTS OF AUSTRALIA'S RECORD DROUGHT
journal, February 2013
- van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Beck, Hylke E.; Crosbie, Russell S.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 49, Issue 2
Drought under global warming: a review: Drought under global warming
journal, October 2010
- Dai, Aiguo
- Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 1
Intensification of hydrological drought in California by human water management
journal, February 2017
- He, Xiaogang; Wada, Yoshihide; Wanders, Niko
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 4
Dam effects on droughts magnitude and duration in a transboundary basin: The Lower River Tagus, Spain and Portugal: DROUGHTS MAGNITUDE AND DURATION
journal, February 2009
- López-Moreno, J. I.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Beguería, S.
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 45, Issue 2
Ecosystem resilience to the Millennium drought in southeast Australia (2001-2009): ECOSYSTEM RESPONSES TO PROLONGED DROUGHT
journal, September 2016
- Sawada, Yohei; Koike, Toshio
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 121, Issue 9
Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.: Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene
journal, November 2017
- Wan, Wenhua; Zhao, Jianshi; Li, Hong-Yi
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 122, Issue 21
Assessing arid Inland Lake Watershed Area and Vegetation Response to Multiple Temporal Scales of Drought Across the Ebinur Lake Watershed
journal, January 2020
- Zhang, Junyong; Ding, Jianli; Wu, Pengfei
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 10, Issue 1
Asymmetrical response of California electricity demand to summer-time temperature variation
journal, July 2020
- Kumar, Rohini; Rachunok, Benjamin; Maia-Silva, Debora
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 10, Issue 1
Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions,
understanding, and analysis approaches
journal, January 2016
- Van Loon, Anne F.; Stahl, Kerstin; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 20, Issue 9
Works referencing / citing this record:
Revisiting Water Supply Rule Curves with Hedging Theory for Climate Change Adaptation
journal, March 2019
- Wan, Wenhua; Zhao, Jianshi; Wang, Jiabiao
- Sustainability, Vol. 11, Issue 7
Figures / Tables found in this record:
Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.