Model consensus projections of US regional hydroclimates under greenhouse warming
Abstract
We investigate ensemble-mean ('consensus') values of resolution-weighted CMIP5 multi-model simulations of 1976–2005 summer regional hydroclimates, and of their projected 2070–2099 changes under three progressively more severe representative concentration pathways greenhouse scenarios. Uncertainties in these consensus values are estimated from the cross-ensemble scatter. We analyze differences among 30 year present-day and future consensus summer hydroclimates that are averaged over three disparate regions of the United States: the semi-arid Southern Great Plains, the arid Southwest, and the humid Southeast. Our study considers the impact of several scenarios of greenhouse forcing on the regional averages of both single hydroclimatic variables and on ratios of variables which are indicative of continental drying, as well as the partitioning of surface moisture or available energy into their respective subcomponents. In all three study regions, there is a projected robust increase in surface temperature as the severity of the greenhouse scenario increases; but the regional-average hydroclimatic changes are comparatively uncertain, and often are not proportional to the change in surface warming. There is, however, a projected robust increase in continental drying that is manifested by several complementary measures, but that differs in magnitude by region. The prospect of future continental aridification should be viewed with some caution,more »
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1489852
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1497972
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-JRNL-757085
Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-07NA27344
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Volume: 14 Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
- Publisher:
- IOP Publishing
- Country of Publication:
- United Kingdom
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Phillips, Thomas J., Bonfils, Céline J. W., and Zhang, Chengzhu. Model consensus projections of US regional hydroclimates under greenhouse warming. United Kingdom: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaf03d.
Phillips, Thomas J., Bonfils, Céline J. W., & Zhang, Chengzhu. Model consensus projections of US regional hydroclimates under greenhouse warming. United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf03d
Phillips, Thomas J., Bonfils, Céline J. W., and Zhang, Chengzhu. Tue .
"Model consensus projections of US regional hydroclimates under greenhouse warming". United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf03d.
@article{osti_1489852,
title = {Model consensus projections of US regional hydroclimates under greenhouse warming},
author = {Phillips, Thomas J. and Bonfils, Céline J. W. and Zhang, Chengzhu},
abstractNote = {We investigate ensemble-mean ('consensus') values of resolution-weighted CMIP5 multi-model simulations of 1976–2005 summer regional hydroclimates, and of their projected 2070–2099 changes under three progressively more severe representative concentration pathways greenhouse scenarios. Uncertainties in these consensus values are estimated from the cross-ensemble scatter. We analyze differences among 30 year present-day and future consensus summer hydroclimates that are averaged over three disparate regions of the United States: the semi-arid Southern Great Plains, the arid Southwest, and the humid Southeast. Our study considers the impact of several scenarios of greenhouse forcing on the regional averages of both single hydroclimatic variables and on ratios of variables which are indicative of continental drying, as well as the partitioning of surface moisture or available energy into their respective subcomponents. In all three study regions, there is a projected robust increase in surface temperature as the severity of the greenhouse scenario increases; but the regional-average hydroclimatic changes are comparatively uncertain, and often are not proportional to the change in surface warming. There is, however, a projected robust increase in continental drying that is manifested by several complementary measures, but that differs in magnitude by region. The prospect of future continental aridification should be viewed with some caution, however, since it may be a result of various shortcomings in current-generation climate models or in the specified greenhouse scenarios.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaf03d},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 1,
volume = 14,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {Tue Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2019},
month = {Tue Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2019}
}
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Figures / Tables:
Table 1: Listing of the selected CMIP5 models, their institutional/country affiliations, their horizontal grid resolution (expressed as the total number of latitude x longitude grid cells), and the climate simulations for each type of numerical experiment that were available from the PCMDI data archives (denoted by √ ).
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