CAUSES: Diagnosis of the Summertime Warm Bias in CMIP5 Climate Models at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site
Abstract
Abstract All the weather and climate models participating in the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface project show a summertime surface air temperature (T2 m) warm bias in the region of the central United States. To understand the warm bias in long‐term climate simulations, we assess the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, with long‐term observations mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program Southern Great Plains site. Quantities related to the surface energy and water budget, and large‐scale circulation are analyzed to identify possible factors and plausible links involved in the warm bias. The systematic warm season bias is characterized by an overestimation of T2 m and underestimation of surface humidity, precipitation, and precipitable water. Accompanying the warm bias is an overestimation of absorbed solar radiation at the surface, which is due to a combination of insufficient cloud reflection and clear‐sky shortwave absorption by water vapor and an underestimation in surface albedo. The bias in cloud is shown to contribute most to the radiation bias. The surface layer soil moisture impacts T2 m through its control on evaporative fraction. The error in evaporative fraction is another important contributor to T2 m. Similar sourcesmore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
[1];
[1];
[1];
[1];
[2];
[2];
[2]
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore CA USA
- Met Office Exeter UK
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1429535
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1429536; OSTI ID: 1488790
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-JRNL-731632
Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X
- Grant/Contract Number:
- DE‐AC52‐07NA27344; DE‐SC0014122; AC52-07NA27344; SC0014122
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Journal Volume: 123 Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 58 GEOSCIENCES
Citation Formats
Zhang, Chengzhu, Xie, Shaocheng, Klein, Stephen A., Ma, Hsi‐yen, Tang, Shuaiqi, Van Weverberg, Kwinten, Morcrette, Cyril J., and Petch, Jon. CAUSES: Diagnosis of the Summertime Warm Bias in CMIP5 Climate Models at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1002/2017JD027200.
Zhang, Chengzhu, Xie, Shaocheng, Klein, Stephen A., Ma, Hsi‐yen, Tang, Shuaiqi, Van Weverberg, Kwinten, Morcrette, Cyril J., & Petch, Jon. CAUSES: Diagnosis of the Summertime Warm Bias in CMIP5 Climate Models at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027200
Zhang, Chengzhu, Xie, Shaocheng, Klein, Stephen A., Ma, Hsi‐yen, Tang, Shuaiqi, Van Weverberg, Kwinten, Morcrette, Cyril J., and Petch, Jon. Sun .
"CAUSES: Diagnosis of the Summertime Warm Bias in CMIP5 Climate Models at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027200.
@article{osti_1429535,
title = {CAUSES: Diagnosis of the Summertime Warm Bias in CMIP5 Climate Models at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site},
author = {Zhang, Chengzhu and Xie, Shaocheng and Klein, Stephen A. and Ma, Hsi‐yen and Tang, Shuaiqi and Van Weverberg, Kwinten and Morcrette, Cyril J. and Petch, Jon},
abstractNote = {Abstract All the weather and climate models participating in the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface project show a summertime surface air temperature (T2 m) warm bias in the region of the central United States. To understand the warm bias in long‐term climate simulations, we assess the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, with long‐term observations mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program Southern Great Plains site. Quantities related to the surface energy and water budget, and large‐scale circulation are analyzed to identify possible factors and plausible links involved in the warm bias. The systematic warm season bias is characterized by an overestimation of T2 m and underestimation of surface humidity, precipitation, and precipitable water. Accompanying the warm bias is an overestimation of absorbed solar radiation at the surface, which is due to a combination of insufficient cloud reflection and clear‐sky shortwave absorption by water vapor and an underestimation in surface albedo. The bias in cloud is shown to contribute most to the radiation bias. The surface layer soil moisture impacts T2 m through its control on evaporative fraction. The error in evaporative fraction is another important contributor to T2 m. Similar sources of error are found in hindcast from other Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface studies. In Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations, biases in meridional wind velocity associated with the low‐level jet and the 500 hPa vertical velocity may also relate to T2 m bias through their control on the surface energy and water budget.},
doi = {10.1002/2017JD027200},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = 6,
volume = 123,
place = {United States},
year = {Sun Mar 25 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Sun Mar 25 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
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Table 1: Observed Quantities Considered in the Evaluation, Including the Quantity Names, the Data Sources, the Temporal and Spatial Information of the Data, the Original Data Sources or Instrument, and the Estimated Observational Uncertainties
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