A stochastic downscaling approach for generating high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios
Abstract
Solar power is increasingly cost viable with solar photovoltaic (PV) installations becoming commonplace. PV planning and operational studies, however, require high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios to understand potential electric grid impacts due to the variability and uncertainty of the underlying solar resource. Existing remote sensing solar data products are often available over large spatial domains, but are limited in temporal resolution. For example, the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) component contained within the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is available at time resolution of 30 min on an approximately four-kilometer grid. In contrast, substantial solar variability is present at finer time scales and this article describes an algorithm to stochastically generate one-minute GHI from widely available sub-hourly NSRDB. A generalized linear modeling (GLM) framework is proposed, which includes non-Gaussian mixtures, and extends the literature involving the synthesis of GHI data. The model is trained on a set of sample locations around Oregon, USA, and validated across the USA using both the Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) dataset and Solar Radiation Monitoring Laboratory (SRML) network. Simulated ensembles show good coverage properties and temporal correlation structure. The resulting downscaled ensembles allow for understanding the unpredictable variability inherent in GHI at locations without direct measurements.more »
- Authors:
-
- Univ. of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO (United States)
- National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1481844
- Report Number(s):
- NREL/JA-5D00-72667
Journal ID: ISSN 0038-092X
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC36-08GO28308
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Solar Energy
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 176; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0038-092X
- Publisher:
- Elsevier
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 14 SOLAR ENERGY; 47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION; Irradiance modeling; high-resolution; stochastic; non-Gaussian
Citation Formats
Zhang, Wenqi, Kleiber, William, Florita, Anthony R., Hodge, Bri -Mathias, and Mather, Barry A. A stochastic downscaling approach for generating high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1016/j.solener.2018.10.019.
Zhang, Wenqi, Kleiber, William, Florita, Anthony R., Hodge, Bri -Mathias, & Mather, Barry A. A stochastic downscaling approach for generating high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2018.10.019
Zhang, Wenqi, Kleiber, William, Florita, Anthony R., Hodge, Bri -Mathias, and Mather, Barry A. Mon .
"A stochastic downscaling approach for generating high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2018.10.019. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1481844.
@article{osti_1481844,
title = {A stochastic downscaling approach for generating high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios},
author = {Zhang, Wenqi and Kleiber, William and Florita, Anthony R. and Hodge, Bri -Mathias and Mather, Barry A.},
abstractNote = {Solar power is increasingly cost viable with solar photovoltaic (PV) installations becoming commonplace. PV planning and operational studies, however, require high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios to understand potential electric grid impacts due to the variability and uncertainty of the underlying solar resource. Existing remote sensing solar data products are often available over large spatial domains, but are limited in temporal resolution. For example, the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) component contained within the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is available at time resolution of 30 min on an approximately four-kilometer grid. In contrast, substantial solar variability is present at finer time scales and this article describes an algorithm to stochastically generate one-minute GHI from widely available sub-hourly NSRDB. A generalized linear modeling (GLM) framework is proposed, which includes non-Gaussian mixtures, and extends the literature involving the synthesis of GHI data. The model is trained on a set of sample locations around Oregon, USA, and validated across the USA using both the Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) dataset and Solar Radiation Monitoring Laboratory (SRML) network. Simulated ensembles show good coverage properties and temporal correlation structure. The resulting downscaled ensembles allow for understanding the unpredictable variability inherent in GHI at locations without direct measurements. Here, future work can leverage the algorithm as part of a stochastic optimization of electric grid operations with high-penetration PV systems.},
doi = {10.1016/j.solener.2018.10.019},
journal = {Solar Energy},
number = C,
volume = 176,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Oct 22 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Mon Oct 22 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
Web of Science
Figures / Tables:
Works referenced in this record:
SURFRAD—A National Surface Radiation Budget Network for Atmospheric Research
journal, October 2000
- Augustine, John A.; DeLuisi, John J.; Long, Charles N.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 81, Issue 10
Hourly irradiance forecasting in Malaysia using support vector machine
conference, October 2014
- Baharin, Kyairul Azmi; Rahman, Hasimah Abd; Hassan, Mohammad Yusri
- 2014 IEEE Conference on Energy Conversion (CENCON)
A synthetic, spatially decorrelating solar irradiance generator and application to a LV grid model with high PV penetration
journal, May 2017
- Bright, Jamie M.; Babacan, Oytun; Kleissl, Jan
- Solar Energy, Vol. 147
Stochastic generation of synthetic minutely irradiance time series derived from mean hourly weather observation data
journal, May 2015
- Bright, J. M.; Smith, C. J.; Taylor, P. G.
- Solar Energy, Vol. 115
Wind and solar resource data sets: Wind and solar resource data sets
journal, December 2017
- Clifton, Andrew; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Draxl, Caroline
- Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Vol. 7, Issue 2
Control strategies and cycling demands for Li-ion storage batteries in residential micro-cogeneration systems
journal, March 2015
- Darcovich, K.; Kenney, B.; MacNeil, D. D.
- Applied Energy, Vol. 141
Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and a proposition for small-scale insular grids
journal, November 2013
- Diagne, Maimouna; David, Mathieu; Lauret, Philippe
- Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 27
Increasing the temporal resolution of direct normal solar irradiance series in different climatic zones
journal, May 2015
- Fernández-Peruchena, Carlos M.; Blanco, Manuel; Gastón, Martín
- Solar Energy, Vol. 115
A simple and efficient procedure for increasing the temporal resolution of global horizontal solar irradiance series
journal, February 2016
- Fernández-Peruchena, Carlos M.; Gastón, Martín
- Renewable Energy, Vol. 86
Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness
journal, April 2007
- Gneiting, Tilmann; Balabdaoui, Fadoua; Raftery, Adrian E.
- Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), Vol. 69, Issue 2
Generating synthetic sequences of global horizontal irradiation
journal, March 2018
- Grantham, A. P.; Pudney, P. J.; Boland, J. W.
- Solar Energy, Vol. 162
Quantifying PV power Output Variability
journal, October 2010
- Hoff, Thomas E.; Perez, Richard
- Solar Energy, Vol. 84, Issue 10
Spatiotemporal interpolation and forecast of irradiance data using Kriging
journal, December 2017
- Jamaly, Mohammad; Kleissl, Jan
- Solar Energy, Vol. 158
Geostatistical Model Averaging for Locally Calibrated Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting
journal, December 2011
- Kleiber, William; Raftery, Adrian E.; Gneiting, Tilmann
- Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 106, Issue 496
Field Experiences with the Operation of Solar Radiation Resource Assessment Stations in India
journal, January 2014
- Kumar, A.; Gomathinayagam, S.; Giridhar, G.
- Energy Procedia, Vol. 49
Methodology to synthetically downscale DNI time series from 1-h to 1-min temporal resolution with geographic flexibility
journal, March 2018
- Larrañeta, M.; Fernandez-Peruchena, C.; Silva-Pérez, M. A.
- Solar Energy, Vol. 162
An improved model for the synthetic generation of high temporal resolution direct normal irradiation time series
journal, December 2015
- Larrañeta, M.; Moreno-Tejera, S.; Silva-Pérez, M. A.
- Solar Energy, Vol. 122
Solar variability of four sites across the state of Colorado
journal, December 2010
- Lave, Matthew; Kleissl, Jan
- Renewable Energy, Vol. 35, Issue 12
High-frequency irradiance fluctuations and geographic smoothing
journal, August 2012
- Lave, Matthew; Kleissl, Jan; Arias-Castro, Ery
- Solar Energy, Vol. 86, Issue 8
A Wavelet-Based Variability Model (WVM) for Solar PV Power Plants
journal, April 2013
- Lave, Matthew; Kleissl, Jan; Stein, Joshua S.
- IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, Vol. 4, Issue 2
A stochastic solar irradiance model adjusted on the Ångström–Prescott regression
journal, January 2013
- Morf, Heinrich
- Solar Energy, Vol. 87
High PV penetration impacts on five local distribution networks using high resolution solar resource assessment with sky imager and quasi-steady state distribution system simulations
journal, July 2016
- Nguyen, Andu; Velay, Maxime; Schoene, Jens
- Solar Energy, Vol. 132
Synthetic generation of high temporal resolution solar radiation data using Markov models
journal, May 2014
- Ngoko, B. O.; Sugihara, H.; Funaki, T.
- Solar Energy, Vol. 103
Simulating irradiance enhancement dependence on cloud optical depth and solar zenith angle
journal, October 2016
- Pecenak, Zachary K.; Mejia, Felipe A.; Kurtz, Ben
- Solar Energy, Vol. 136
On the spatial decorrelation of stochastic solar resource variability at long timescales
journal, July 2015
- Perez, Marc J. R.; Fthenakis, Vasilis M.
- Solar Energy, Vol. 117
Parameterization of site-specific short-term irradiance variability
journal, July 2011
- Perez, Richard; Kivalov, Sergey; Schlemmer, James
- Solar Energy, Vol. 85, Issue 7
High frequency generation of coupled GHI and DNI based on clustered Dynamic Paths
journal, January 2018
- Peruchena, Carlos F.; Larrañeta, Miguel; Blanco, Manuel
- Solar Energy, Vol. 159
A simple approach to the synthetic generation of solar irradiance time series with high temporal resolution
journal, May 2011
- Polo, J.; Zarzalejo, L. F.; Marchante, R.
- Solar Energy, Vol. 85, Issue 5
Identification of periods of clear sky irradiance in time series of GHI measurements
journal, May 2016
- Reno, Matthew J.; Hansen, Clifford W.
- Renewable Energy, Vol. 90
The future of solar energy: A personal assessment
journal, December 2015
- Schmalensee, Richard
- Energy Economics, Vol. 52
The National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB)
journal, June 2018
- Sengupta, Manajit; Xie, Yu; Lopez, Anthony
- Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 89
Stochastic partial differential equation based modelling of large space-time data sets
journal, March 2014
- Sigrist, Fabio; Künsch, Hans R.; Stahel, Werner A.
- Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), Vol. 77, Issue 1
Cloud cover effect of clear-sky index distributions and differences between human and automatic cloud observations
journal, March 2017
- Smith, Christopher J.; Bright, Jamie M.; Crook, Rolf
- Solar Energy, Vol. 144
The frequency distribution of instantaneous insolation values
journal, January 1988
- Suehrcke, H.; McCormick, P. G.
- Solar Energy, Vol. 40, Issue 5
Solar Irradiance Short-Term Prediction Model Based on BP Neural Network
journal, January 2011
- Wang, Zhe; Wang, Fei; Su, Shi
- Energy Procedia, Vol. 12
Comparison of numerical weather prediction based deterministic and probabilistic wind resource assessment methods
journal, October 2015
- Zhang, Jie; Draxl, Caroline; Hopson, Thomas
- Applied Energy, Vol. 156
Modeling and Simulation of High-Frequency Solar Irradiance
journal, January 2019
- Zhang, Wenqi; Kleiber, William; Florita, Anthony R.
- IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics, Vol. 9, Issue 1
Works referencing / citing this record:
A generative hidden Markov model of the clear-sky index
journal, July 2019
- Shepero, Mahmoud; Munkhammar, Joakim; Widén, Joakim
- Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, Vol. 11, Issue 4
Figures / Tables found in this record: