A stochastic downscaling approach for generating high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios

Zhang, Wenqi; Kleiber, William; Florita, Anthony R.; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Mather, Barry A.

doi:10.1016/j.solener.2018.10.019

Title: A stochastic downscaling approach for generating high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios

Abstract

Solar power is increasingly cost viable with solar photovoltaic (PV) installations becoming commonplace. PV planning and operational studies, however, require high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios to understand potential electric grid impacts due to the variability and uncertainty of the underlying solar resource. Existing remote sensing solar data products are often available over large spatial domains, but are limited in temporal resolution. For example, the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) component contained within the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is available at time resolution of 30 min on an approximately four-kilometer grid. In contrast, substantial solar variability is present at finer time scales and this article describes an algorithm to stochastically generate one-minute GHI from widely available sub-hourly NSRDB. A generalized linear modeling (GLM) framework is proposed, which includes non-Gaussian mixtures, and extends the literature involving the synthesis of GHI data. The model is trained on a set of sample locations around Oregon, USA, and validated across the USA using both the Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) dataset and Solar Radiation Monitoring Laboratory (SRML) network. Simulated ensembles show good coverage properties and temporal correlation structure. The resulting downscaled ensembles allow for understanding the unpredictable variability inherent in GHI at locations without direct measurements.more »« less

Authors:

^[1]; Kleiber, William ^[1];

^[2]; Hodge, Bri -Mathias ^[2]; Mather, Barry A. ^[2]

Univ. of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO (United States)
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Publication Date:: Mon Oct 22 00:00:00 EDT 2018

Research Org.:: National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office

OSTI Identifier:: 1481844

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA-5D00-72667
Journal ID: ISSN 0038-092X

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Solar Energy

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 176; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0038-092X

Publisher:: Elsevier

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 14 SOLAR ENERGY; 47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION; Irradiance modeling; high-resolution; stochastic; non-Gaussian

Citation Formats


                    Zhang, Wenqi, Kleiber, William, Florita, Anthony R., Hodge, Bri -Mathias, and Mather, Barry A. A stochastic downscaling approach for generating high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios.  United States: N. p., 2018. 
Web.  doi:10.1016/j.solener.2018.10.019.

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                    Zhang, Wenqi, Kleiber, William, Florita, Anthony R., Hodge, Bri -Mathias, & Mather, Barry A. A stochastic downscaling approach for generating high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2018.10.019

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                    Zhang, Wenqi, Kleiber, William, Florita, Anthony R., Hodge, Bri -Mathias, and Mather, Barry A. Mon .  
"A stochastic downscaling approach for generating high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2018.10.019.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1481844.

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@article{osti_1481844,

  title        = {A stochastic downscaling approach for generating high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios},

  author       = {Zhang, Wenqi and Kleiber, William and Florita, Anthony R. and Hodge, Bri -Mathias and Mather, Barry A.},

  abstractNote = {Solar power is increasingly cost viable with solar photovoltaic (PV) installations becoming commonplace. PV planning and operational studies, however, require high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios to understand potential electric grid impacts due to the variability and uncertainty of the underlying solar resource. Existing remote sensing solar data products are often available over large spatial domains, but are limited in temporal resolution. For example, the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) component contained within the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is available at time resolution of 30 min on an approximately four-kilometer grid. In contrast, substantial solar variability is present at finer time scales and this article describes an algorithm to stochastically generate one-minute GHI from widely available sub-hourly NSRDB. A generalized linear modeling (GLM) framework is proposed, which includes non-Gaussian mixtures, and extends the literature involving the synthesis of GHI data. The model is trained on a set of sample locations around Oregon, USA, and validated across the USA using both the Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) dataset and Solar Radiation Monitoring Laboratory (SRML) network. Simulated ensembles show good coverage properties and temporal correlation structure. The resulting downscaled ensembles allow for understanding the unpredictable variability inherent in GHI at locations without direct measurements. Here, future work can leverage the algorithm as part of a stochastic optimization of electric grid operations with high-penetration PV systems.},

  doi          = {10.1016/j.solener.2018.10.019},

  journal      = {Solar Energy},

  number       = C,

  volume       = 176,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Mon Oct 22 00:00:00 EDT 2018},

  month        = {Mon Oct 22 00:00:00 EDT 2018}

}

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Journal Article:

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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2018.10.019

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Cited by: 13 works

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Figure 1: Interpolated NSRDB data and in situ data for Eugene, OR, January 6, 2013.

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Works referencing / citing this record:

A generative hidden Markov model of the clear-sky index
journal, July 2019

Shepero, Mahmoud; Munkhammar, Joakim; Widén, Joakim
Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, Vol. 11, Issue 4
DOI: 10.1063/1.5110785

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Similar Records

Title: A stochastic downscaling approach for generating high-frequency solar irradiance scenarios

Abstract

Citation Formats

Figures / Tables:

SURFRAD—A National Surface Radiation Budget Network for Atmospheric Research journal, October 2000

Hourly irradiance forecasting in Malaysia using support vector machine conference, October 2014

A synthetic, spatially decorrelating solar irradiance generator and application to a LV grid model with high PV penetration journal, May 2017

Stochastic generation of synthetic minutely irradiance time series derived from mean hourly weather observation data journal, May 2015

Wind and solar resource data sets: Wind and solar resource data sets journal, December 2017

Control strategies and cycling demands for Li-ion storage batteries in residential micro-cogeneration systems journal, March 2015

Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and a proposition for small-scale insular grids journal, November 2013

Increasing the temporal resolution of direct normal solar irradiance series in different climatic zones journal, May 2015

A simple and efficient procedure for increasing the temporal resolution of global horizontal solar irradiance series journal, February 2016

Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness journal, April 2007

Generating synthetic sequences of global horizontal irradiation journal, March 2018

Quantifying PV power Output Variability journal, October 2010

Spatiotemporal interpolation and forecast of irradiance data using Kriging journal, December 2017

Geostatistical Model Averaging for Locally Calibrated Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting journal, December 2011

Field Experiences with the Operation of Solar Radiation Resource Assessment Stations in India journal, January 2014

Methodology to synthetically downscale DNI time series from 1-h to 1-min temporal resolution with geographic flexibility journal, March 2018

An improved model for the synthetic generation of high temporal resolution direct normal irradiation time series journal, December 2015

Solar variability of four sites across the state of Colorado journal, December 2010

High-frequency irradiance fluctuations and geographic smoothing journal, August 2012

A Wavelet-Based Variability Model (WVM) for Solar PV Power Plants journal, April 2013

A stochastic solar irradiance model adjusted on the Ångström–Prescott regression journal, January 2013

High PV penetration impacts on five local distribution networks using high resolution solar resource assessment with sky imager and quasi-steady state distribution system simulations journal, July 2016

Synthetic generation of high temporal resolution solar radiation data using Markov models journal, May 2014

Simulating irradiance enhancement dependence on cloud optical depth and solar zenith angle journal, October 2016

On the spatial decorrelation of stochastic solar resource variability at long timescales journal, July 2015

Parameterization of site-specific short-term irradiance variability journal, July 2011

High frequency generation of coupled GHI and DNI based on clustered Dynamic Paths journal, January 2018

A simple approach to the synthetic generation of solar irradiance time series with high temporal resolution journal, May 2011

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SURFRAD—A National Surface Radiation Budget Network for Atmospheric Research
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Hourly irradiance forecasting in Malaysia using support vector machine
conference, October 2014

A synthetic, spatially decorrelating solar irradiance generator and application to a LV grid model with high PV penetration
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Stochastic generation of synthetic minutely irradiance time series derived from mean hourly weather observation data
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Wind and solar resource data sets: Wind and solar resource data sets
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Control strategies and cycling demands for Li-ion storage batteries in residential micro-cogeneration systems
journal, March 2015

Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and a proposition for small-scale insular grids
journal, November 2013

Increasing the temporal resolution of direct normal solar irradiance series in different climatic zones
journal, May 2015

A simple and efficient procedure for increasing the temporal resolution of global horizontal solar irradiance series
journal, February 2016

Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness
journal, April 2007

Generating synthetic sequences of global horizontal irradiation
journal, March 2018

Quantifying PV power Output Variability
journal, October 2010

Spatiotemporal interpolation and forecast of irradiance data using Kriging
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Geostatistical Model Averaging for Locally Calibrated Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting
journal, December 2011

Field Experiences with the Operation of Solar Radiation Resource Assessment Stations in India
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Methodology to synthetically downscale DNI time series from 1-h to 1-min temporal resolution with geographic flexibility
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An improved model for the synthetic generation of high temporal resolution direct normal irradiation time series
journal, December 2015

Solar variability of four sites across the state of Colorado
journal, December 2010

High-frequency irradiance fluctuations and geographic smoothing
journal, August 2012

A Wavelet-Based Variability Model (WVM) for Solar PV Power Plants
journal, April 2013

A stochastic solar irradiance model adjusted on the Ångström–Prescott regression
journal, January 2013

High PV penetration impacts on five local distribution networks using high resolution solar resource assessment with sky imager and quasi-steady state distribution system simulations
journal, July 2016

Synthetic generation of high temporal resolution solar radiation data using Markov models
journal, May 2014

Simulating irradiance enhancement dependence on cloud optical depth and solar zenith angle
journal, October 2016

On the spatial decorrelation of stochastic solar resource variability at long timescales
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Parameterization of site-specific short-term irradiance variability
journal, July 2011

High frequency generation of coupled GHI and DNI based on clustered Dynamic Paths
journal, January 2018

A simple approach to the synthetic generation of solar irradiance time series with high temporal resolution
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Identification of periods of clear sky irradiance in time series of GHI measurements
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The future of solar energy: A personal assessment
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Stochastic partial differential equation based modelling of large space-time data sets
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Cloud cover effect of clear-sky index distributions and differences between human and automatic cloud observations
journal, March 2017

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