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Title: Failure time distributions for complex equipment

Abstract

The exponential distribution is inadequate as a failure time model for most components; however, under certain conditions (in particular, that component failure rates are small and mutually independent, and failed components are immediately replaced or perfectly repaired), it is applicable to complex repairable systems with large numbers of components in series, regardless of component distributions, as shown by Drenick in 1960. This result implies that system behavior may become simpler as more components are added. We review necessary conditions for the result and present some simulation studies to assess how well it holds in systems with finite numbers of components. Lastly, we also note that Drenick's result is analogous to similar results in other systems disciplines, again resulting in simpler behavior as the number of entities in the system increases.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [1]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1479952
Report Number(s):
[LA-UR-18-22407]
[Journal ID: ISSN 0748-8017]
Grant/Contract Number:  
[AC52-06NA25396]
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Quality and Reliability Engineering International
Additional Journal Information:
[ Journal Volume: 35; Journal Issue: 1]; Journal ID: ISSN 0748-8017
Publisher:
Wiley
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
42 ENGINEERING; Failure law; complex systems; exponential distribution; Drenick’s theorem

Citation Formats

Collins, David H., and Warr, Richard L. Failure time distributions for complex equipment. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1002/qre.2387.
Collins, David H., & Warr, Richard L. Failure time distributions for complex equipment. United States. doi:10.1002/qre.2387.
Collins, David H., and Warr, Richard L. Sun . "Failure time distributions for complex equipment". United States. doi:10.1002/qre.2387. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1479952.
@article{osti_1479952,
title = {Failure time distributions for complex equipment},
author = {Collins, David H. and Warr, Richard L.},
abstractNote = {The exponential distribution is inadequate as a failure time model for most components; however, under certain conditions (in particular, that component failure rates are small and mutually independent, and failed components are immediately replaced or perfectly repaired), it is applicable to complex repairable systems with large numbers of components in series, regardless of component distributions, as shown by Drenick in 1960. This result implies that system behavior may become simpler as more components are added. We review necessary conditions for the result and present some simulation studies to assess how well it holds in systems with finite numbers of components. Lastly, we also note that Drenick's result is analogous to similar results in other systems disciplines, again resulting in simpler behavior as the number of entities in the system increases.},
doi = {10.1002/qre.2387},
journal = {Quality and Reliability Engineering International},
number = [1],
volume = [35],
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {9}
}

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