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Title: Thinning Can Reduce Losses in Carbon Use Efficiency and Carbon Stocks in Managed Forests Under Warmer Climate

Journal Article · · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [7];  [10];  [4]; ORCiD logo [11];  [12];  [13]; ORCiD logo [14]; ORCiD logo [15]
  1. Foundation Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Viterbo (Italy); National Research Council of Italy (CNR), Rende (Italy)
  2. Univ. of Tuscia, Viterbo (Italy)
  3. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Division; ; Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
  4. Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark)
  5. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  6. Karlsruhe Inst. of Technology (KIT) (Germany)
  7. Univ. of Antwerp (Belgium)
  8. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)
  9. Max Plank Inst. for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany)
  10. Univ. of Exeter (UK)
  11. Foundation Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Bologna (Italy)
  12. Global Change Research Inst. (CAS), Brno (Czech Republic)
  13. Foundation Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Viterbo (Italy)
  14. European Commission, Ispra (Italy). Joint Research Centre
  15. National Research Council of Italy (CNR), Rende (Italy)

Climate change is likely to impact the dynamics of forest carbon and water cycles over the coming centuries. Managed forests represent a significant fraction of land cover in many countries that ratified the Paris Agreement, investigating the potential impacts of silvicultural management on carbon sequestration seems both promising and urgently needed. Such an investigation needs to consider the physical impacts implied by harvesting as well as natural acclimation processes occurring in response to a changing environment. Here we examine the projected dynamics of forest carbon use efficiency (CUE) and water use efficiency (WUE), which both need to be considered as highly dynamical – a feature that is often neglected in climate change impact scenarios. Using a complex forest ecosystem model that represents the current understanding of forest ecosystem functioning, forced by five Earth System Models and four Representative Concentration Pathways from the ISIMIP project, we estimate future changes in CUE and WUE as a consequence of projected climate warming, rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations and management for two intensively studied forest ecosystems. Our results indicate that CUE and WUE tend to decrease in unmanaged forests due to forest ageing and accompanying physiological alterations but increase in response to increasing CO2 concentrations and as a consequence of forest management. We find that forest management strategies can significantly counterbalance the decrease in CUE and WUE projected for the next decades, while in the long-term (100 years) the benefits of this kind of management decrease substantially. We identify alternative management strategies that provide significant benefits with respect to climate mitigation compared to those currently employed. These results indicate that enhanced mitigation due to forest management is possible over longer periods of time but can prolonged using alternative forest management schemes which should be considered as valuable adaptive options.

Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); European Union (EU); German Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF); Italian National Operational Program for Research and Competitiveness (PON R&C); European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830; AC02-05CH11231; 641816; LIFE15-CCM/IT/000141; 01LS1201A1; PON03PE-00024-1; AC02‐05CH11231
OSTI ID:
1477796
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1477799; OSTI ID: 1559161; OSTI ID: 1633045
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-124209
Journal Information:
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 10, Issue 10; ISSN 1942-2466
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Forest carbon allocation modelling under climate change text January 2019
Divergent Growth Responses to Warming between Stand-Grown and Open-Grown Trees in a Dryland Montane Forest in Northwestern China journal December 2019
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Figures / Tables (10)