Permafrost Degradation and Subsidence Observations during a Controlled Warming Experiment
Abstract
Global climate change has resulted in a warmer Arctic, with projections indicating accelerated modifications to permafrost in the near future. The thermal, hydrological, and mechanical physics of permafrost thaw have been hypothesized to couple in a complex fashion but data collection efforts to study these feedbacks in the field have been limited. As a result, laboratory and numerical models have largely outpaced field calibration datasets. We present the design, execution, and initial results from the first decameter-scale controlled thawing experiment, targeting coupled thermal/mechanical response, particularly the temporal sequence of surface subsidence relative to permafrost degradation at depth. The warming test was conducted in Fairbanks, AK, and utilized an array of in-ground heaters to induce thaw of a ~11 × 13 × 1.5 m soil volume over 63 days. The 4-D temperature evolution demonstrated that the depth to permafrost lowered 1 m during the experiment. The resulting thaw-induced surface deformation was ~10 cm as observed using a combination of measurement techniques. Surface deformation occurred over a smaller spatial domain than the full thawed volume, suggesting that gradients in cryotexture and ice content were significant. Our experiment provides the first large field calibration dataset for multiphysics thaw models.
- Authors:
-
- U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Lab. (CRREL), Fairbanks, AK (United States)
- Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth and Planetary Sciences Dept.; Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Lab. (CRREL), Hanover, NH (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE; USDOD; National Science Foundation (NSF)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1477422
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231; RC-2437; DGE 1106400
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Scientific Reports
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 8; Journal ID: ISSN 2045-2322
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 58 GEOSCIENCES; civil engineering; cryospheric science; environmental health; environmental impact
Citation Formats
Wagner, Anna M., Lindsey, Nathaniel J., Dou, Shan, Gelvin, Arthur, Saari, Stephanie, Williams, Christopher, Ekblaw, Ian, Ulrich, Craig, Borglin, Sharon, Morales, Alejandro, and Ajo-Franklin, Jonathan. Permafrost Degradation and Subsidence Observations during a Controlled Warming Experiment. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1038/s41598-018-29292-y.
Wagner, Anna M., Lindsey, Nathaniel J., Dou, Shan, Gelvin, Arthur, Saari, Stephanie, Williams, Christopher, Ekblaw, Ian, Ulrich, Craig, Borglin, Sharon, Morales, Alejandro, & Ajo-Franklin, Jonathan. Permafrost Degradation and Subsidence Observations during a Controlled Warming Experiment. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-29292-y
Wagner, Anna M., Lindsey, Nathaniel J., Dou, Shan, Gelvin, Arthur, Saari, Stephanie, Williams, Christopher, Ekblaw, Ian, Ulrich, Craig, Borglin, Sharon, Morales, Alejandro, and Ajo-Franklin, Jonathan. Thu .
"Permafrost Degradation and Subsidence Observations during a Controlled Warming Experiment". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-29292-y. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1477422.
@article{osti_1477422,
title = {Permafrost Degradation and Subsidence Observations during a Controlled Warming Experiment},
author = {Wagner, Anna M. and Lindsey, Nathaniel J. and Dou, Shan and Gelvin, Arthur and Saari, Stephanie and Williams, Christopher and Ekblaw, Ian and Ulrich, Craig and Borglin, Sharon and Morales, Alejandro and Ajo-Franklin, Jonathan},
abstractNote = {Global climate change has resulted in a warmer Arctic, with projections indicating accelerated modifications to permafrost in the near future. The thermal, hydrological, and mechanical physics of permafrost thaw have been hypothesized to couple in a complex fashion but data collection efforts to study these feedbacks in the field have been limited. As a result, laboratory and numerical models have largely outpaced field calibration datasets. We present the design, execution, and initial results from the first decameter-scale controlled thawing experiment, targeting coupled thermal/mechanical response, particularly the temporal sequence of surface subsidence relative to permafrost degradation at depth. The warming test was conducted in Fairbanks, AK, and utilized an array of in-ground heaters to induce thaw of a ~11 × 13 × 1.5 m soil volume over 63 days. The 4-D temperature evolution demonstrated that the depth to permafrost lowered 1 m during the experiment. The resulting thaw-induced surface deformation was ~10 cm as observed using a combination of measurement techniques. Surface deformation occurred over a smaller spatial domain than the full thawed volume, suggesting that gradients in cryotexture and ice content were significant. Our experiment provides the first large field calibration dataset for multiphysics thaw models.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-018-29292-y},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = ,
volume = 8,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Jul 19 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Thu Jul 19 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
Web of Science
Works referenced in this record:
A method for experimental heating of intact soil profiles for application to climate change experiments: EXPERIMENTAL HEATING OF INTACT SOIL PROFILES
journal, January 2011
- Hanson, Paul J.; Childs, Kenneth W.; Wullschleger, Stan D.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 17, Issue 2
Thermal effects of groundwater flow through subarctic fens: A case study based on field observations and numerical modeling: THERMAL EFFECTS OF GROUNDWATER FLOW THROUGH SUBARCTIC FENS
journal, March 2016
- Sjöberg, Ylva; Coon, Ethan; K. Sannel, A. Britta
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 52, Issue 3
Surface Geophysical Methods for Characterising Frozen Ground in Transitional Permafrost Landscapes: Surface Geophysical Methods for Characterising Frozen Ground
journal, May 2016
- Briggs, Martin A.; Campbell, Seth; Nolan, Jay
- Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, Vol. 28, Issue 1
Groundwater flow with energy transport and water–ice phase change: Numerical simulations, benchmarks, and application to freezing in peat bogs
journal, April 2007
- McKenzie, Jeffrey M.; Voss, Clifford I.; Siegel, Donald I.
- Advances in Water Resources, Vol. 30, Issue 4
Exchange of groundwater and surface-water mediated by permafrost response to seasonal and long term air temperature variation: GROUNDWATER AND PERMAFROST
journal, July 2011
- Ge, Shemin; McKenzie, Jeffrey; Voss, Clifford
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 14
Attaining whole-ecosystem warming using air and deep-soil heating methods with an elevated CO 2 atmosphere
journal, January 2017
- Hanson, Paul J.; Riggs, Jeffery S.; Nettles, W. Robert
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 14, Issue 4
Premelting Dynamics
journal, January 2006
- Wettlaufer, J. S.; Worster, M. Grae
- Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics, Vol. 38, Issue 1
The Cold Vadose Zone: Hydrological and Ecological Significance of Frozen-Soil Processes
journal, January 2013
- Hayashi, Masaki
- Vadose Zone Journal, Vol. 12, Issue 4
Advances in Thermokarst Research: Recent Advances in Research Investigating Thermokarst Processes
journal, April 2013
- Kokelj, S. V.; Jorgenson, M. T.
- Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, Vol. 24, Issue 2
Effects of experimental warming of air, soil and permafrost on carbon balance in Alaskan tundra: WARMING OF ALASKAN TUNDRA
journal, February 2011
- Natali, Susan M.; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Trucco, Christian
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 17, Issue 3
Hydrologic Impacts of Thawing Permafrost—A Review
journal, January 2016
- Walvoord, Michelle A.; Kurylyk, Barret L.
- Vadose Zone Journal, Vol. 15, Issue 6
Permafrost thaw in a nested groundwater-flow system
journal, January 2013
- McKenzie, Jeffrey M.; Voss, Clifford I.
- Hydrogeology Journal, Vol. 21, Issue 1
Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback
journal, April 2015
- Schuur, E. A. G.; McGuire, A. D.; Schädel, C.
- Nature, Vol. 520, Issue 7546
Remote sensing measurements of thermokarst subsidence using InSAR: Insar Thermokarst
journal, September 2015
- Liu, L.; Schaefer, K. M.; Chen, A. C.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, Vol. 120, Issue 9
Abrupt increase in permafrost degradation in Arctic Alaska
journal, January 2006
- Jorgenson, M. Torre; Shur, Yuri L.; Pullman, Erik R.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, Issue 2
Permafrost degradation stimulates carbon loss from experimentally warmed tundra
journal, March 2014
- Natali, Susan M.; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Webb, Elizabeth E.
- Ecology, Vol. 95, Issue 3
Climate-driven thaw of permafrost preserved glacial landscapes, northwestern Canada
journal, February 2017
- Kokelj, Steven V.; Lantz, Trevor C.; Tunnicliffe, Jon
- Geology, Vol. 45, Issue 4
Impacts of permafrost degradation on a road embankment at Umiujaq in Nunavik (Quebec), Canada
journal, May 2011
- Fortier, Richard; LeBlanc, Anne-Marie; Yu, Wenbing
- Canadian Geotechnical Journal, Vol. 48, Issue 5
Subsidence risk from thawing permafrost
journal, April 2001
- Nelson, Frederick E.; Anisimov, Oleg A.; Shiklomanov, Nikolay I.
- Nature, Vol. 410, Issue 6831
Hydromechanical Processes in Freezing Soils
journal, January 2012
- Rempel, Alan W.
- Vadose Zone Journal, Vol. 11, Issue 4
Quantifying and relating land-surface and subsurface variability in permafrost environments using LiDAR and surface geophysical datasets
journal, December 2012
- Hubbard, S. S.; Gangodagamage, C.; Dafflon, B.
- Hydrogeology Journal, Vol. 21, Issue 1
Critical state soil constitutive model for methane hydrate soil: MHCS MODEL
journal, March 2012
- Uchida, S.; Soga, K.; Yamamoto, K.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, Vol. 117, Issue B3
A comprehensive data acquisition and management system for an ecosystem-scale peatland warming and elevated CO 2 experiment
journal, January 2015
- Krassovski, M. B.; Riggs, J. S.; Hook, L. A.
- Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems, Vol. 4, Issue 2
Geophysical estimation of shallow permafrost distribution and properties in an ice-wedge polygon-dominated Arctic tundra region
journal, January 2016
- Dafflon, Baptiste; Hubbard, Susan; Ulrich, Craig
- GEOPHYSICS, Vol. 81, Issue 1
Arctic permafrost landscapes in transition: towards an integrated Earth system approach
journal, June 2017
- Vincent, Warwick F.; Lemay, Mickaël; Allard, Michel
- Arctic Science, Vol. 3, Issue 2
Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation
journal, December 2016
- Melvin, April M.; Larsen, Peter; Boehlert, Brent
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 2
Are soil biota buffered against climatic extremes? An experimental test on testate amoebae in arctic tundra (Qeqertarsuaq, West Greenland)
journal, November 2008
- Beyens, L.; Ledeganck, P.; Graae, B. J.
- Polar Biology, Vol. 32, Issue 3
The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate
journal, August 2014
- Schaefer, Kevin; Lantuit, Hugues; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, Issue 8
An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming
journal, April 2017
- Chadburn, S. E.; Burke, E. J.; Cox, P. M.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 5
Permafrost degradation as a control on hydrogeological regime shifts in a warming climate: GROUNDWATER AND DEGRADING PERMAFROST
journal, September 2012
- Bense, V. F.; Kooi, H.; Ferguson, G.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, Vol. 117, Issue F3
Identifying multiscale zonation and assessing the relative importance of polygon geomorphology on carbon fluxes in an Arctic tundra ecosystem: ZONATION APPROACH IN AN ARCTIC ECOSYSTEM
journal, April 2015
- Wainwright, Haruko M.; Dafflon, Baptiste; Smith, Lydia J.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 120, Issue 4
Increased plant productivity in Alaskan tundra as a result of experimental warming of soil and permafrost: Increased plant productivity in Alaskan tundra
journal, November 2011
- Natali, Susan M.; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Rubin, Rachel L.
- Journal of Ecology, Vol. 100, Issue 2
Changing permafrost in a warming world and feedbacks to the Earth system
journal, March 2016
- Grosse, Guido; Goetz, Scott; McGuire, A. Dave
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 11, Issue 4
Using field observations to inform thermal hydrology models of permafrost dynamics with ATS (v0.83)
journal, January 2015
- Atchley, A. L.; Painter, S. L.; Harp, D. R.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 8, Issue 9
Satellite remote sensing classification of thaw lakes and drained thaw lake basins on the North Slope of Alaska
journal, July 2005
- Frohn, Robert C.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Eisner, Wendy R.
- Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 97, Issue 1
Permafrost thermal state in the polar Northern Hemisphere during the international polar year 2007-2009: a synthesis
journal, April 2010
- Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Smith, Sharon L.; Christiansen, Hanne H.
- Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, Vol. 21, Issue 2
The role of advective heat transport in talik development beneath lakes and ponds in discontinuous permafrost: GROUNDWATER FLOW AND LAKE TALIK
journal, September 2011
- Rowland, J. C.; Travis, B. J.; Wilson, C. J.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 17
The Cold Vadose Zone: Hydrological and Ecological Significance of Frozen-Soil Processes
journal, December 2013
- Hayashi, Masaki
- Vadose Zone Journal, Vol. 13, Issue 1
Using field observations to inform thermal hydrology models of permafrost dynamics with ATS (v0.83)
journal, January 2015
- Atchley, A. L.; Painter, S. L.; Harp, D. R.
- Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, Vol. 8, Issue 4
Surface Geophysical Methods for Characterising Frozen Ground in Transitional Permafrost Landscapes: Surface Geophysical Methods for Characterising Frozen Ground
journal, May 2016
- Briggs, Martin A.; Campbell, Seth; Nolan, Jay
- Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, Vol. 28, Issue 1
Water and energy transfer modeling in a permafrost‐dominated, forested catchment of Central Siberia: The key role of rooting depth
journal, February 2019
- Orgogozo, Laurent; Prokushkin, Anatoly S.; Pokrovsky, Oleg S.
- Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, Vol. 30, Issue 2
Quantifying and relating land-surface and subsurface variability in permafrost environments using LiDAR and surface geophysical datasets
journal, December 2012
- Hubbard, S. S.; Gangodagamage, C.; Dafflon, B.
- Hydrogeology Journal, Vol. 21, Issue 1
Permafrost thaw in a nested groundwater-flow system
journal, January 2013
- McKenzie, Jeffrey M.; Voss, Clifford I.
- Hydrogeology Journal, Vol. 21, Issue 1
Satellite remote sensing classification of thaw lakes and drained thaw lake basins on the North Slope of Alaska
journal, July 2005
- Frohn, Robert C.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Eisner, Wendy R.
- Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 97, Issue 1
Subsidence risk from thawing permafrost
journal, April 2001
- Nelson, Frederick E.; Anisimov, Oleg A.; Shiklomanov, Nikolay I.
- Nature, Vol. 410, Issue 6831
An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming
journal, April 2017
- Chadburn, S. E.; Burke, E. J.; Cox, P. M.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 5
Changing permafrost in a warming world and feedbacks to the Earth system
journal, March 2016
- Grosse, Guido; Goetz, Scott; McGuire, A. Dave
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 11, Issue 4
The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate
journal, August 2014
- Schaefer, Kevin; Lantuit, Hugues; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, Issue 8
Increased plant productivity in Alaskan tundra as a result of experimental warming of soil and permafrost: Increased plant productivity in Alaskan tundra
journal, November 2011
- Natali, Susan M.; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Rubin, Rachel L.
- Journal of Ecology, Vol. 100, Issue 2
Impacts of permafrost degradation on a road embankment at Umiujaq in Nunavik (Quebec), Canada
journal, May 2011
- Fortier, Richard; LeBlanc, Anne-Marie; Yu, Wenbing
- Canadian Geotechnical Journal, Vol. 48, Issue 5
Premelting Dynamics
journal, January 2006
- Wettlaufer, J. S.; Worster, M. Grae
- Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics, Vol. 38, Issue 1
Geophysical estimation of shallow permafrost distribution and properties in an ice-wedge polygon-dominated Arctic tundra region
journal, January 2016
- Dafflon, Baptiste; Hubbard, Susan; Ulrich, Craig
- GEOPHYSICS, Vol. 81, Issue 1
Permafrost Destabilization and Thermokarst Following Snow Fence Installation, Barrow, Alaska, U.S.A
journal, November 2006
- Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Hurd, John K.
- Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol. 38, Issue 4
Permafrost degradation stimulates carbon loss from experimentally warmed tundra
journal, March 2014
- Natali, Susan M.; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Webb, Elizabeth E.
- Ecology, Vol. 95, Issue 3
Attaining whole-ecosystem warming using air and deep-soil heating methods with an elevated CO 2 atmosphere
journal, January 2017
- Hanson, Paul J.; Riggs, Jeffery S.; Nettles, W. Robert
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 14, Issue 4
A comprehensive data acquisition and management system for an ecosystem-scale peatland warming and elevated CO 2 experiment
journal, January 2015
- Krassovski, M. B.; Riggs, J. S.; Hook, L. A.
- Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems, Vol. 4, Issue 2
Using field observations to inform thermal hydrology models of permafrost dynamics with ATS (v0.83)
journal, January 2015
- Atchley, A. L.; Painter, S. L.; Harp, D. R.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 8, Issue 9
Works referencing / citing this record:
Reviews and syntheses: Changing ecosystem influences on soil thermal regimes in northern high-latitude permafrost regions
journal, January 2018
- Loranty, Michael M.; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Blok, Daan
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 15, Issue 17
A distributed temperature profiling method for assessing spatial variability in ground temperatures in a discontinuous permafrost region of Alaska
journal, January 2019
- Léger, Emmanuel; Dafflon, Baptiste; Robert, Yves
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, Issue 11