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Title: Exacerbation of the 2013–2016 Pan‐Caribbean Drought by Anthropogenic Warming

Abstract

The Caribbean islands are expected to see more frequent and severe droughts from reduced precipitation and increased evaporative demand due to anthropogenic climate change. Between 2013 and 2016, the Caribbean experienced a widespread drought due in part to El Niño in 2015–2016, but it is unknown whether its severity was exacerbated by anthropogenic warming. This work examines the role of recent warming on this drought, using a recently developed high-resolution self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index data set. The resulting analysis suggest that anthropogenic warming accounted for ~15–17% of the drought's severity and ~7% of its spatial extent. These findings strongly suggest that climate model projected anthropogenic drying in the Caribbean is already underway, with major implications for the more than 43 million people currently living in this region.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [5]
  1. Department of Earth and Atmospheric SciencesCornell University Ithaca NY USA
  2. Climate and Global Dynamics DivisionNational Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
  3. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Woods Hole MA USA
  4. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York NY USA
  5. Lamont Doherty Earth ObservatoryColumbia University Palisades NY USA
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Univ. Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Science Foundation (NSF); National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA)
OSTI Identifier:
1476664
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1476665; OSTI ID: 1611935
Grant/Contract Number:  
SC0012711; AGS-1243125; AGS-1602564; AGS-1243107; NNH11ZDA001N; AGS-1703029
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Volume: 45 Journal Issue: 19; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; geology; Caribbean; drought; anthropogenic warming

Citation Formats

Herrera, Dimitris A., Ault, Toby R., Fasullo, John T., Coats, Sloan J., Carrillo, Carlos M., Cook, Benjamin I., and Williams, A. Park. Exacerbation of the 2013–2016 Pan‐Caribbean Drought by Anthropogenic Warming. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1029/2018GL079408.
Herrera, Dimitris A., Ault, Toby R., Fasullo, John T., Coats, Sloan J., Carrillo, Carlos M., Cook, Benjamin I., & Williams, A. Park. Exacerbation of the 2013–2016 Pan‐Caribbean Drought by Anthropogenic Warming. United States. doi:10.1029/2018GL079408.
Herrera, Dimitris A., Ault, Toby R., Fasullo, John T., Coats, Sloan J., Carrillo, Carlos M., Cook, Benjamin I., and Williams, A. Park. Sun . "Exacerbation of the 2013–2016 Pan‐Caribbean Drought by Anthropogenic Warming". United States. doi:10.1029/2018GL079408.
@article{osti_1476664,
title = {Exacerbation of the 2013–2016 Pan‐Caribbean Drought by Anthropogenic Warming},
author = {Herrera, Dimitris A. and Ault, Toby R. and Fasullo, John T. and Coats, Sloan J. and Carrillo, Carlos M. and Cook, Benjamin I. and Williams, A. Park},
abstractNote = {The Caribbean islands are expected to see more frequent and severe droughts from reduced precipitation and increased evaporative demand due to anthropogenic climate change. Between 2013 and 2016, the Caribbean experienced a widespread drought due in part to El Niño in 2015–2016, but it is unknown whether its severity was exacerbated by anthropogenic warming. This work examines the role of recent warming on this drought, using a recently developed high-resolution self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index data set. The resulting analysis suggest that anthropogenic warming accounted for ~15–17% of the drought's severity and ~7% of its spatial extent. These findings strongly suggest that climate model projected anthropogenic drying in the Caribbean is already underway, with major implications for the more than 43 million people currently living in this region.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079408},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 19,
volume = 45,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {10}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
DOI: 10.1029/2018GL079408

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Cited by: 2 works
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