Exacerbation of the 2013–2016 Pan‐Caribbean Drought by Anthropogenic Warming
Abstract
The Caribbean islands are expected to see more frequent and severe droughts from reduced precipitation and increased evaporative demand due to anthropogenic climate change. Between 2013 and 2016, the Caribbean experienced a widespread drought due in part to El Niño in 2015–2016, but it is unknown whether its severity was exacerbated by anthropogenic warming. This work examines the role of recent warming on this drought, using a recently developed high-resolution self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index data set. The resulting analysis suggest that anthropogenic warming accounted for ~15–17% of the drought's severity and ~7% of its spatial extent. These findings strongly suggest that climate model projected anthropogenic drying in the Caribbean is already underway, with major implications for the more than 43 million people currently living in this region.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
[3];
[1];
[4];
[5]
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric SciencesCornell University Ithaca NY USA
- Climate and Global Dynamics DivisionNational Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Woods Hole MA USA
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York NY USA
- Lamont Doherty Earth ObservatoryColumbia University Palisades NY USA
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Science Foundation (NSF); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1476664
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1476665; OSTI ID: 1611935
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0012711; AGS-1243125; AGS-1602564; AGS-1243107; NNH11ZDA001N; AGS-1703029
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Volume: 45 Journal Issue: 19; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 58 GEOSCIENCES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; geology; Caribbean; drought; anthropogenic warming
Citation Formats
Herrera, Dimitris A., Ault, Toby R., Fasullo, John T., Coats, Sloan J., Carrillo, Carlos M., Cook, Benjamin I., and Williams, A. Park. Exacerbation of the 2013–2016 Pan‐Caribbean Drought by Anthropogenic Warming. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1029/2018GL079408.
Herrera, Dimitris A., Ault, Toby R., Fasullo, John T., Coats, Sloan J., Carrillo, Carlos M., Cook, Benjamin I., & Williams, A. Park. Exacerbation of the 2013–2016 Pan‐Caribbean Drought by Anthropogenic Warming. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079408
Herrera, Dimitris A., Ault, Toby R., Fasullo, John T., Coats, Sloan J., Carrillo, Carlos M., Cook, Benjamin I., and Williams, A. Park. Sun .
"Exacerbation of the 2013–2016 Pan‐Caribbean Drought by Anthropogenic Warming". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079408.
@article{osti_1476664,
title = {Exacerbation of the 2013–2016 Pan‐Caribbean Drought by Anthropogenic Warming},
author = {Herrera, Dimitris A. and Ault, Toby R. and Fasullo, John T. and Coats, Sloan J. and Carrillo, Carlos M. and Cook, Benjamin I. and Williams, A. Park},
abstractNote = {The Caribbean islands are expected to see more frequent and severe droughts from reduced precipitation and increased evaporative demand due to anthropogenic climate change. Between 2013 and 2016, the Caribbean experienced a widespread drought due in part to El Niño in 2015–2016, but it is unknown whether its severity was exacerbated by anthropogenic warming. This work examines the role of recent warming on this drought, using a recently developed high-resolution self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index data set. The resulting analysis suggest that anthropogenic warming accounted for ~15–17% of the drought's severity and ~7% of its spatial extent. These findings strongly suggest that climate model projected anthropogenic drying in the Caribbean is already underway, with major implications for the more than 43 million people currently living in this region.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL079408},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 19,
volume = 45,
place = {United States},
year = {Sun Oct 07 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Sun Oct 07 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079408
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