Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system
Abstract
Abstract. The unprecedented use of Earth's resources by humans, in combination with increasing natural variability in natural processes over the past century, is affecting the evolution of the Earth system. To better understand natural processes and their potential future trajectories requires improved integration with and quantification of human processes. Similarly, to mitigate risk and facilitate socio-economic development requires a better understanding of how the natural system (e.g. climate variability and change, extreme weather events, and processes affecting soil fertility) affects human processes. Our understanding of these interactions and feedback between human and natural systems has been formalized through a variety of modelling approaches. However, a common conceptual framework or set of guidelines to model human–natural-system feedbacks is lacking. The presented research lays out a conceptual framework that includes representing model coupling configuration in combination with the frequency of interaction and coordination of communication between coupled models. Four different approaches used to couple representations of the human and natural system are presented in relation to this framework, which vary in the processes represented and in the scale of their application. From the development and experience associated with the four models of coupled human–natural systems, the following eight lessons were identified thatmore »
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth and Environmental Systems Science Division
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1457508
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1476517
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Earth System Dynamics (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Earth System Dynamics (Online) Journal Volume: 9 Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 2190-4987
- Publisher:
- Copernicus Publications, EGU
- Country of Publication:
- Germany
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 58 GEOSCIENCES
Citation Formats
Robinson, Derek T., Di Vittorio, Alan, Alexander, Peter, Arneth, Almut, Barton, C. Michael, Brown, Daniel G., Kettner, Albert, Lemmen, Carsten, O'Neill, Brian C., Janssen, Marco, Pugh, Thomas A. M., Rabin, Sam S., Rounsevell, Mark, Syvitski, James P., Ullah, Isaac, and Verburg, Peter H. Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system. Germany: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.5194/esd-9-895-2018.
Robinson, Derek T., Di Vittorio, Alan, Alexander, Peter, Arneth, Almut, Barton, C. Michael, Brown, Daniel G., Kettner, Albert, Lemmen, Carsten, O'Neill, Brian C., Janssen, Marco, Pugh, Thomas A. M., Rabin, Sam S., Rounsevell, Mark, Syvitski, James P., Ullah, Isaac, & Verburg, Peter H. Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system. Germany. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-895-2018
Robinson, Derek T., Di Vittorio, Alan, Alexander, Peter, Arneth, Almut, Barton, C. Michael, Brown, Daniel G., Kettner, Albert, Lemmen, Carsten, O'Neill, Brian C., Janssen, Marco, Pugh, Thomas A. M., Rabin, Sam S., Rounsevell, Mark, Syvitski, James P., Ullah, Isaac, and Verburg, Peter H. Tue .
"Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system". Germany. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-895-2018.
@article{osti_1457508,
title = {Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system},
author = {Robinson, Derek T. and Di Vittorio, Alan and Alexander, Peter and Arneth, Almut and Barton, C. Michael and Brown, Daniel G. and Kettner, Albert and Lemmen, Carsten and O'Neill, Brian C. and Janssen, Marco and Pugh, Thomas A. M. and Rabin, Sam S. and Rounsevell, Mark and Syvitski, James P. and Ullah, Isaac and Verburg, Peter H.},
abstractNote = {Abstract. The unprecedented use of Earth's resources by humans, in combination with increasing natural variability in natural processes over the past century, is affecting the evolution of the Earth system. To better understand natural processes and their potential future trajectories requires improved integration with and quantification of human processes. Similarly, to mitigate risk and facilitate socio-economic development requires a better understanding of how the natural system (e.g. climate variability and change, extreme weather events, and processes affecting soil fertility) affects human processes. Our understanding of these interactions and feedback between human and natural systems has been formalized through a variety of modelling approaches. However, a common conceptual framework or set of guidelines to model human–natural-system feedbacks is lacking. The presented research lays out a conceptual framework that includes representing model coupling configuration in combination with the frequency of interaction and coordination of communication between coupled models. Four different approaches used to couple representations of the human and natural system are presented in relation to this framework, which vary in the processes represented and in the scale of their application. From the development and experience associated with the four models of coupled human–natural systems, the following eight lessons were identified that if taken into account by future coupled human–natural-systems model developments may increase their success: (1) leverage the power of sensitivity analysis with models, (2) remember modelling is an iterative process, (3) create a common language, (4) make code open-access, (5) ensure consistency, (6) reconcile spatio-temporal mismatch, (7) construct homogeneous units, and (8) incorporating feedback increases non-linearity and variability. Following a discussion of feedbacks, a way forward to expedite model coupling and increase the longevity and interoperability of models is given, which suggests the use of a wrapper container software, a standardized applications programming interface (API), the incorporation of standard names, the mitigation of sunk costs by creating interfaces to multiple coupling frameworks, and the adoption of reproducible workflow environments to wire the pieces together.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-9-895-2018},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics (Online)},
number = 2,
volume = 9,
place = {Germany},
year = {Tue Jun 26 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Tue Jun 26 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-895-2018
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