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Title: A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States

Abstract

In this paper, climate change might impact various components of the bulk electric power system, including electricity demand; transmission; and thermal, hydropower, wind, and solar generators. Most research in this area quantifies impacts on one or a few components and does not link these impacts to effects on power system planning and operations. Here, we advance the understanding of how climate change might impact the bulk U.S. power system in three ways. First, we synthesize recent research to capture likely component-level impacts of climate change in the United States. Second, given the interconnected nature of the electric power system, we assess how aggregated component-level impacts might affect power system planning and operations. Third, we outline an agenda for future research on climate change impacts on power system planning and operations. Although component-level impacts vary in their magnitude, collectively they might significantly affect planning and operations. Most notably, increased demand plus reduced firm capacity across generation types might require systems to procure significant additional capacity to maintain planning reserve margins, and regional declines in renewable resources might need to be offset by increasing zero-carbon investment to meet decarbonization targets. Aggregated impacts might also affect operations, e.g., through shifts in dispatching andmore » increased operational reserve requirements. Future research should aggregate component-level impacts at operational timescales, quantify impacts on wind and solar variability, and contextualize climate change impacts within ongoing shifts in the electric power system.« less

Authors:
 [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [1]; ORCiD logo [1]
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  1. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1476442
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1637051
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-5D00-71406
Journal ID: ISSN 1364-0321
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC36-08GO28308
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 98; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 1364-0321
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; climate change; power system; climate change impacts; power system planning; power system operations

Citation Formats

Craig, Michael T., Cohen, Stuart M., Macknick, Jordan E., Draxl, Caroline, Guerra, Omar J., Sengupta, Manajit, Haupt, Sue Ellen, Hodge, Brian -Mathias, and Brancucci, Carlo. A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2018.09.022.
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Craig, Michael T., Cohen, Stuart M., Macknick, Jordan E., Draxl, Caroline, Guerra, Omar J., Sengupta, Manajit, Haupt, Sue Ellen, Hodge, Brian -Mathias, & Brancucci, Carlo. A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.09.022
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Craig, Michael T., Cohen, Stuart M., Macknick, Jordan E., Draxl, Caroline, Guerra, Omar J., Sengupta, Manajit, Haupt, Sue Ellen, Hodge, Brian -Mathias, and Brancucci, Carlo. Tue . "A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.09.022. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1476442.
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@article{osti_1476442,
title = {A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States},
author = {Craig, Michael T. and Cohen, Stuart M. and Macknick, Jordan E. and Draxl, Caroline and Guerra, Omar J. and Sengupta, Manajit and Haupt, Sue Ellen and Hodge, Brian -Mathias and Brancucci, Carlo},
abstractNote = {In this paper, climate change might impact various components of the bulk electric power system, including electricity demand; transmission; and thermal, hydropower, wind, and solar generators. Most research in this area quantifies impacts on one or a few components and does not link these impacts to effects on power system planning and operations. Here, we advance the understanding of how climate change might impact the bulk U.S. power system in three ways. First, we synthesize recent research to capture likely component-level impacts of climate change in the United States. Second, given the interconnected nature of the electric power system, we assess how aggregated component-level impacts might affect power system planning and operations. Third, we outline an agenda for future research on climate change impacts on power system planning and operations. Although component-level impacts vary in their magnitude, collectively they might significantly affect planning and operations. Most notably, increased demand plus reduced firm capacity across generation types might require systems to procure significant additional capacity to maintain planning reserve margins, and regional declines in renewable resources might need to be offset by increasing zero-carbon investment to meet decarbonization targets. Aggregated impacts might also affect operations, e.g., through shifts in dispatching and increased operational reserve requirements. Future research should aggregate component-level impacts at operational timescales, quantify impacts on wind and solar variability, and contextualize climate change impacts within ongoing shifts in the electric power system.},
doi = {10.1016/j.rser.2018.09.022},
journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews},
number = C,
volume = 98,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {9}
}
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Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.09.022
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Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 11 works
Citation information provided by
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Figures / Tables:

Table 1 Table 1: For each component-level impact, our Scopus search terms, the number of publications returned by each search, and the number of publications returned by each search filtered for relevance.
All figures and tables (11 total)
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Works referenced in this record:

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
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Advances and challenges in water management within energy systems
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  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 122, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1002/2016JD025869

Electric Grid Vulnerabilities to Rising Air Temperatures in Arizona
journal, January 2016

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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Water–Energy–Food Nexus Simulation: An Optimization Approach for Resource Security
    journal, March 2019

    • Wicaksono, Albert; Jeong, Gimoon; Kang, Doosun
    • Water, Vol. 11, Issue 4
    • DOI: 10.3390/w11040667

    Compounding climate change impacts during high stress periods for a high wind and solar power system in Texas
    journal, January 2020

    • Craig, Michael T.; Jaramillo, Paulina; Hodge, Bri-Mathias
    • Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 15, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6615

    Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change
    journal, March 2019

    • Craig, Michael T.; Losada Carreño, Ignacio; Rossol, Michael
    • Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf93b
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      Figures / Tables found in this record:

      Table 1 (p. 6)table
      Table 2 (p. 9)table
      Table 3 (p. 11)table
      Table 4 (p. 15)table
      Table 5 (p. 20)table
      Table 6 (p. 26)table
      Table 7 (p. 30)table
      Figure 1 (p. 35)figure
      Figure 2 (p. 38)figure
      Table S8 (p. 50)table
      Figure S3 (p. 51)figure
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