A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States

doi:10.1016/j.rser.2018.09.022

Title: A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States

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Abstract

In this paper, climate change might impact various components of the bulk electric power system, including electricity demand; transmission; and thermal, hydropower, wind, and solar generators. Most research in this area quantifies impacts on one or a few components and does not link these impacts to effects on power system planning and operations. Here, we advance the understanding of how climate change might impact the bulk U.S. power system in three ways. First, we synthesize recent research to capture likely component-level impacts of climate change in the United States. Second, given the interconnected nature of the electric power system, we assess how aggregated component-level impacts might affect power system planning and operations. Third, we outline an agenda for future research on climate change impacts on power system planning and operations. Although component-level impacts vary in their magnitude, collectively they might significantly affect planning and operations. Most notably, increased demand plus reduced firm capacity across generation types might require systems to procure significant additional capacity to maintain planning reserve margins, and regional declines in renewable resources might need to be offset by increasing zero-carbon investment to meet decarbonization targets. Aggregated impacts might also affect operations, e.g., through shifts in dispatching andmore »« less

Authors:

Craig, Michael T. ^[1];

^[1]; Macknick, Jordan E. ^[1];

^[1]; Guerra, Omar J. ^[1];

^[1]; Haupt, Sue Ellen ^[2]; Hodge, Brian -Mathias ^[1];

^[1]

National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

Publication Date:: 2018-09-25

Research Org.:: National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE

OSTI Identifier:: 1476442

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA-5D00-71406
Journal ID: ISSN 1364-0321

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 98; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 1364-0321

Publisher:: Elsevier

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; climate change; power system; climate change impacts; power system planning; power system operations

Citation Formats


                    Craig, Michael T., Cohen, Stuart M., Macknick, Jordan E., Draxl, Caroline, Guerra, Omar J., Sengupta, Manajit, Haupt, Sue Ellen, Hodge, Brian -Mathias, and Brancucci, Carlo. A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States.  United States: N. p., 2018. 
        Web.  doi:10.1016/j.rser.2018.09.022.

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                    Craig, Michael T., Cohen, Stuart M., Macknick, Jordan E., Draxl, Caroline, Guerra, Omar J., Sengupta, Manajit, Haupt, Sue Ellen, Hodge, Brian -Mathias, & Brancucci, Carlo. A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States.  United States.  doi:10.1016/j.rser.2018.09.022.

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                    Craig, Michael T., Cohen, Stuart M., Macknick, Jordan E., Draxl, Caroline, Guerra, Omar J., Sengupta, Manajit, Haupt, Sue Ellen, Hodge, Brian -Mathias, and Brancucci, Carlo. Tue .  
        "A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States".  United States.  doi:10.1016/j.rser.2018.09.022.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1476442.

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@article{osti_1476442,

  title        = {A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States},

  author       = {Craig, Michael T. and Cohen, Stuart M. and Macknick, Jordan E. and Draxl, Caroline and Guerra, Omar J. and Sengupta, Manajit and Haupt, Sue Ellen and Hodge, Brian -Mathias and Brancucci, Carlo},

  abstractNote = {In this paper, climate change might impact various components of the bulk electric power system, including electricity demand; transmission; and thermal, hydropower, wind, and solar generators. Most research in this area quantifies impacts on one or a few components and does not link these impacts to effects on power system planning and operations. Here, we advance the understanding of how climate change might impact the bulk U.S. power system in three ways. First, we synthesize recent research to capture likely component-level impacts of climate change in the United States. Second, given the interconnected nature of the electric power system, we assess how aggregated component-level impacts might affect power system planning and operations. Third, we outline an agenda for future research on climate change impacts on power system planning and operations. Although component-level impacts vary in their magnitude, collectively they might significantly affect planning and operations. Most notably, increased demand plus reduced firm capacity across generation types might require systems to procure significant additional capacity to maintain planning reserve margins, and regional declines in renewable resources might need to be offset by increasing zero-carbon investment to meet decarbonization targets. Aggregated impacts might also affect operations, e.g., through shifts in dispatching and increased operational reserve requirements. Future research should aggregate component-level impacts at operational timescales, quantify impacts on wind and solar variability, and contextualize climate change impacts within ongoing shifts in the electric power system.},

  doi          = {10.1016/j.rser.2018.09.022},

  journal      = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews},

  number       = C,

  volume       = 98,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {2018},

  month        = {9}

}

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DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2018.09.022

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