A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States

Craig, Michael T.; Cohen, Stuart M.; Macknick, Jordan E.; Draxl, Caroline; Guerra, Omar J.; Sengupta, Manajit; Haupt, Sue Ellen; Hodge, Brian -Mathias; Brancucci, Carlo

doi:10.1016/j.rser.2018.09.022

Title: A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States

Journal Article · 25 September 2018 · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.09.022 · OSTI ID:1476442

Craig, Michael T. ^[1];

^[1]; Macknick, Jordan E. ^[1];

^[1]; Guerra, Omar J. ^[1];

^[1]; Haupt, Sue Ellen ^[2]; Hodge, Brian -Mathias ^[1];

^[1]

National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

In this paper, climate change might impact various components of the bulk electric power system, including electricity demand; transmission; and thermal, hydropower, wind, and solar generators. Most research in this area quantifies impacts on one or a few components and does not link these impacts to effects on power system planning and operations. Here, we advance the understanding of how climate change might impact the bulk U.S. power system in three ways. First, we synthesize recent research to capture likely component-level impacts of climate change in the United States. Second, given the interconnected nature of the electric power system, we assess how aggregated component-level impacts might affect power system planning and operations. Third, we outline an agenda for future research on climate change impacts on power system planning and operations. Although component-level impacts vary in their magnitude, collectively they might significantly affect planning and operations. Most notably, increased demand plus reduced firm capacity across generation types might require systems to procure significant additional capacity to maintain planning reserve margins, and regional declines in renewable resources might need to be offset by increasing zero-carbon investment to meet decarbonization targets. Aggregated impacts might also affect operations, e.g., through shifts in dispatching and increased operational reserve requirements. Future research should aggregate component-level impacts at operational timescales, quantify impacts on wind and solar variability, and contextualize climate change impacts within ongoing shifts in the electric power system.

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Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 1476442

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1637051

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA-5D00-71406

Journal Information:: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 98, Issue C; ISSN 1364-0321

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 51 works

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