Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping
Abstract
As global temperatures increase, sea ice loss will increasingly enable commercial shipping traffic to cross the Arctic Ocean, where the ships' gas and particulate emissions may have strong regional effects. Here we investigate impacts of shipping emissions on Arctic climate using a fully coupled Earth system model (CESM 1.2.2) and a suite of newly developed projections of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping emissions. We find that trans-Arctic shipping will reduce Arctic warming by nearly 1 °C by 2099, due to sulfate-driven liquid water cloud formation. Cloud fraction and liquid water path exhibit significant positive trends, cooling the lower atmosphere and surface. Positive feedbacks from sea ice growth-induced albedo increases and decreased downwelling longwave radiation due to reduced water vapor content amplify the cooling relative to the shipping-free Arctic. Our findings thus point to the complexity in Arctic climate responses to increased shipping traffic, justifying further study and policy considerations as trade routes open.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
[2];
[3];
[2];
[3]
- Department of Geography, University of Connecticut, Storrs CT USA
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine CA USA
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1475071
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1479151; OSTI ID: 1510437
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-135168
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0012998; AC05-76RL01830; AC02-05CH11231; AC05-76RLO1830; NNX14AH55A; 80NSSC17K0540; 80NSSC17K0416
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Volume: 45 Journal Issue: 18; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Earth system modeling; Arctic; Emissions; Cloud feedbacks; Shipping; Sea ice
Citation Formats
Stephenson, Scott R., Wang, Wenshan, Zender, Charles S., Wang, Hailong, Davis, Steven J., and Rasch, Philip J. Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1029/2018GL078969.
Stephenson, Scott R., Wang, Wenshan, Zender, Charles S., Wang, Hailong, Davis, Steven J., & Rasch, Philip J. Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078969
Stephenson, Scott R., Wang, Wenshan, Zender, Charles S., Wang, Hailong, Davis, Steven J., and Rasch, Philip J. Fri .
"Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078969.
@article{osti_1475071,
title = {Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping},
author = {Stephenson, Scott R. and Wang, Wenshan and Zender, Charles S. and Wang, Hailong and Davis, Steven J. and Rasch, Philip J.},
abstractNote = {As global temperatures increase, sea ice loss will increasingly enable commercial shipping traffic to cross the Arctic Ocean, where the ships' gas and particulate emissions may have strong regional effects. Here we investigate impacts of shipping emissions on Arctic climate using a fully coupled Earth system model (CESM 1.2.2) and a suite of newly developed projections of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping emissions. We find that trans-Arctic shipping will reduce Arctic warming by nearly 1 °C by 2099, due to sulfate-driven liquid water cloud formation. Cloud fraction and liquid water path exhibit significant positive trends, cooling the lower atmosphere and surface. Positive feedbacks from sea ice growth-induced albedo increases and decreased downwelling longwave radiation due to reduced water vapor content amplify the cooling relative to the shipping-free Arctic. Our findings thus point to the complexity in Arctic climate responses to increased shipping traffic, justifying further study and policy considerations as trade routes open.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL078969},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 18,
volume = 45,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Sep 28 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Fri Sep 28 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078969
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