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Title: Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping

Abstract

As global temperatures increase, sea ice loss will increasingly enable commercial shipping traffic to cross the Arctic Ocean, where the ships' gas and particulate emissions may have strong regional effects. Here we investigate impacts of shipping emissions on Arctic climate using a fully coupled Earth system model (CESM 1.2.2) and a suite of newly developed projections of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping emissions. We find that trans-Arctic shipping will reduce Arctic warming by nearly 1 °C by 2099, due to sulfate-driven liquid water cloud formation. Cloud fraction and liquid water path exhibit significant positive trends, cooling the lower atmosphere and surface. Positive feedbacks from sea ice growth-induced albedo increases and decreased downwelling longwave radiation due to reduced water vapor content amplify the cooling relative to the shipping-free Arctic. Our findings thus point to the complexity in Arctic climate responses to increased shipping traffic, justifying further study and policy considerations as trade routes open.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]
  1. Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States). Dept. of Geography
  2. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States). Dept. of Earth System Science
  3. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1475071
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1479151; OSTI ID: 1510437
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-135168
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Grant/Contract Number:  
SC0012998; AC05-76RL01830; AC02-05CH11231; NNX14AH55A; 80NSSC17K0540; 80NSSC17K0416; AC05-76RLO1830
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 45; Journal Issue: 18; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Earth system modeling; Arctic; Emissions; Cloud feedbacks; Shipping; Sea ice

Citation Formats

Stephenson, Scott R., Wang, Wenshan, Zender, Charles S., Wang, Hailong, Davis, Steven J., and Rasch, Philip J. Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1029/2018GL078969.
Stephenson, Scott R., Wang, Wenshan, Zender, Charles S., Wang, Hailong, Davis, Steven J., & Rasch, Philip J. Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping. United States. doi:10.1029/2018GL078969.
Stephenson, Scott R., Wang, Wenshan, Zender, Charles S., Wang, Hailong, Davis, Steven J., and Rasch, Philip J. Wed . "Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping". United States. doi:10.1029/2018GL078969.
@article{osti_1475071,
title = {Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping},
author = {Stephenson, Scott R. and Wang, Wenshan and Zender, Charles S. and Wang, Hailong and Davis, Steven J. and Rasch, Philip J.},
abstractNote = {As global temperatures increase, sea ice loss will increasingly enable commercial shipping traffic to cross the Arctic Ocean, where the ships' gas and particulate emissions may have strong regional effects. Here we investigate impacts of shipping emissions on Arctic climate using a fully coupled Earth system model (CESM 1.2.2) and a suite of newly developed projections of 21st-century trans-Arctic shipping emissions. We find that trans-Arctic shipping will reduce Arctic warming by nearly 1 °C by 2099, due to sulfate-driven liquid water cloud formation. Cloud fraction and liquid water path exhibit significant positive trends, cooling the lower atmosphere and surface. Positive feedbacks from sea ice growth-induced albedo increases and decreased downwelling longwave radiation due to reduced water vapor content amplify the cooling relative to the shipping-free Arctic. Our findings thus point to the complexity in Arctic climate responses to increased shipping traffic, justifying further study and policy considerations as trade routes open.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL078969},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 18,
volume = 45,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {9}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
DOI: 10.1029/2018GL078969

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