Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles

McCollum, David L.; Wilson, Charlie; Bevione, Michela; Carrara, Samuel; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Emmerling, Johannes; Guivarch, Céline; Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis; Keppo, Ilkka; Krey, Volker; Lin, Zhenhong; Broin, Eoin Ó.; Paroussos, Leonidas; Pettifor, Hazel; Ramea, Kalai; Riahi, Keywan; Sano, Fuminori; Rodriguez, Baltazar Solano; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

doi:10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z

Title: Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles

Journal Article · 16 July 2018 · Nature Energy

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z · OSTI ID:1474484

^[1]; Wilson, Charlie ^[2]; Bevione, Michela ^[3]; Carrara, Samuel ^[3]; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y. ^[4];

^[3];

^[5]; Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis ^[6]; Keppo, Ilkka ^[7]; Krey, Volker ^[8];

^[9];

^[10]; Paroussos, Leonidas ^[6]; Pettifor, Hazel ^[11]; Ramea, Kalai ^[12]; Riahi, Keywan ^[13]; Sano, Fuminori ^[14]; Rodriguez, Baltazar Solano ^[7];

^[4]

International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy
International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom). Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Milan (Italy). Climate and Sustainable Innovation (CSI) Program, Eni Enrico Mattei Foundation (FEEM), and Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division (ECIP)
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague (Netherlands). Climate, Air and Energy Dept.; Utrecht Univ. (Netherlands). Copernicus Inst. of Sustainable Development
School of Bridges ParisTech, Nogent-sur-Marne (France). International Center for Research on Environment and Development (CIRED)
National Technical Univ. of Athens, Zografou (Greece). E3MLab/Inst. of Communications and Computer Systems
Univ. College London (UCL) (United Kingdom). UCL Energy Inst.
International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Center for Transportation Analysis (CTA); Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Industrial and Systems Engineering
School of Bridges ParisTech, Nogent-sur-Marne (France). International Center for Research on Environment and Development (CIRED) and Society of Applied Mathematics and Humanities (SMASH)
Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom). Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States). Inst. of Transportation Studies
International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Graz Univ. of Technology (Austria). Inst. of Thermal Engineering; Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States). Payne Inst.
Research Inst. of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Kyoto (Japan). Systems Analysis Group

Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. In this work, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple global energy-economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to 2050. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary to drive widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient to bring low-carbon vehicles to the mass market, though it may have a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonized energy supply.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE); European Commission (EC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1474484

Journal Information:: Nature Energy, Journal Name: Nature Energy Journal Issue: 8 Vol. 3; ISSN 2058-7546

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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