Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles
Abstract
Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. In this work, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple global energy-economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to 2050. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary to drive widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient to bring low-carbon vehicles to the mass market, though it may have a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonized energy supply.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[3];
[5];
[9];
[10];
[4]
- International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy
- International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom). Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
- Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Milan (Italy). Climate and Sustainable Innovation (CSI) Program, Eni Enrico Mattei Foundation (FEEM), and Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division (ECIP)
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague (Netherlands). Climate, Air and Energy Dept.; Utrecht Univ. (Netherlands). Copernicus Inst. of Sustainable Development
- School of Bridges ParisTech, Nogent-sur-Marne (France). International Center for Research on Environment and Development (CIRED)
- National Technical Univ. of Athens, Zografou (Greece). E3MLab/Inst. of Communications and Computer Systems
- Univ. College London (UCL) (United Kingdom). UCL Energy Inst.
- International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Center for Transportation Analysis (CTA); Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Industrial and Systems Engineering
- School of Bridges ParisTech, Nogent-sur-Marne (France). International Center for Research on Environment and Development (CIRED) and Society of Applied Mathematics and Humanities (SMASH)
- Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom). Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
- Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States). Inst. of Transportation Studies
- International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Graz Univ. of Technology (Austria). Inst. of Thermal Engineering; Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States). Payne Inst.
- Research Inst. of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Kyoto (Japan). Systems Analysis Group
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE); European Commission (EC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1474484
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725; 308329
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Nature Energy
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 3; Journal Issue: 8; Journal ID: ISSN 2058-7546
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; 32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
Citation Formats
McCollum, David L., Wilson, Charlie, Bevione, Michela, Carrara, Samuel, Edelenbosch, Oreane Y., Emmerling, Johannes, Guivarch, Céline, Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis, Keppo, Ilkka, Krey, Volker, Lin, Zhenhong, Broin, Eoin Ó., Paroussos, Leonidas, Pettifor, Hazel, Ramea, Kalai, Riahi, Keywan, Sano, Fuminori, Rodriguez, Baltazar Solano, and van Vuuren, Detlef P. Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z.
McCollum, David L., Wilson, Charlie, Bevione, Michela, Carrara, Samuel, Edelenbosch, Oreane Y., Emmerling, Johannes, Guivarch, Céline, Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis, Keppo, Ilkka, Krey, Volker, Lin, Zhenhong, Broin, Eoin Ó., Paroussos, Leonidas, Pettifor, Hazel, Ramea, Kalai, Riahi, Keywan, Sano, Fuminori, Rodriguez, Baltazar Solano, & van Vuuren, Detlef P. Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z
McCollum, David L., Wilson, Charlie, Bevione, Michela, Carrara, Samuel, Edelenbosch, Oreane Y., Emmerling, Johannes, Guivarch, Céline, Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis, Keppo, Ilkka, Krey, Volker, Lin, Zhenhong, Broin, Eoin Ó., Paroussos, Leonidas, Pettifor, Hazel, Ramea, Kalai, Riahi, Keywan, Sano, Fuminori, Rodriguez, Baltazar Solano, and van Vuuren, Detlef P. Mon .
"Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1474484.
@article{osti_1474484,
title = {Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles},
author = {McCollum, David L. and Wilson, Charlie and Bevione, Michela and Carrara, Samuel and Edelenbosch, Oreane Y. and Emmerling, Johannes and Guivarch, Céline and Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis and Keppo, Ilkka and Krey, Volker and Lin, Zhenhong and Broin, Eoin Ó. and Paroussos, Leonidas and Pettifor, Hazel and Ramea, Kalai and Riahi, Keywan and Sano, Fuminori and Rodriguez, Baltazar Solano and van Vuuren, Detlef P.},
abstractNote = {Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. In this work, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple global energy-economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to 2050. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary to drive widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient to bring low-carbon vehicles to the mass market, though it may have a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonized energy supply.},
doi = {10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z},
journal = {Nature Energy},
number = 8,
volume = 3,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {7}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Cited by: 5 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field
journal, May 2009
- DellaVigna, Stefano
- Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 47, Issue 2
Social influence in the global diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles – A meta-analysis
journal, June 2017
- Pettifor, H.; Wilson, C.; Axsen, J.
- Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 62
Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices
journal, May 2016
- Rai, Varun; Henry, Adam Douglas
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 6
Long-term transport energy demand and climate policy: Alternative visions on transport decarbonization in energy-economy models
journal, January 2014
- Pietzcker, Robert C.; Longden, Thomas; Chen, Wenying
- Energy, Vol. 64
Discount rates in consumers' energy-related decisions: A review of the literature
journal, December 1985
- Train, K.
- Energy, Vol. 10, Issue 12
Addressing policy credibility problems for low-carbon investment
journal, January 2017
- Nemet, Gregory F.; Jakob, Michael; Steckel, Jan Christoph
- Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42
Policy trade-offs between climate mitigation and clean cook-stove access in South Asia
journal, January 2016
- Cameron, Colin; Pachauri, Shonali; Rao, Narasimha D.
- Nature Energy, Vol. 1, Issue 1
What does the 2°c Target Imply for a Global Climate Agreement in 2020? the Limits Study on Durban Platform Scenarios
journal, November 2013
- Kriegler, Elmar; Tavoni, Massimo; Aboumahboub, Tino
- Climate Change Economics, Vol. 04, Issue 04
The effectiveness of policy on consumer choices for private road passenger transport emissions reductions in six major economies
journal, June 2015
- Mercure, J-F; Lam, A.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 6
Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals
journal, January 2015
- Riahi, Keywan; Kriegler, Elmar; Johnson, Nils
- Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 90
Simulating deep CO 2 emission reduction in transport in a general equilibrium framework: The GEM-E3T model
journal, August 2017
- Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis; Siskos, Pelopidas; Paroussos, Leonidas
- Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 55
Preference and lifestyle heterogeneity among potential plug-in electric vehicle buyers
journal, July 2015
- Axsen, Jonn; Bailey, Joseph; Castro, Marisol Andrea
- Energy Economics, Vol. 50
Explaining variance in national electric vehicle policies
journal, December 2016
- Wesseling, Joeri H.
- Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, Vol. 21
Modelling complex systems of heterogeneous agents to better design sustainability transitions policy
journal, March 2016
- Mercure, Jean-Francois; Pollitt, Hector; Bassi, Andrea. M.
- Global Environmental Change, Vol. 37
The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies
journal, January 2014
- Kriegler, Elmar; Weyant, John P.; Blanford, Geoffrey J.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 123, Issue 3-4
Travel intensity and climate policy: The influence of different mobility futures on the diffusion of battery integrated vehicles
journal, September 2014
- Longden, Thomas
- Energy Policy, Vol. 72
Useful models for simulating policies to induce technological change
journal, October 2006
- Rivers, Nic; Jaccard, Mark
- Energy Policy, Vol. 34, Issue 15
Interpersonal Influence within Car Buyers' Social Networks: Applying Five Perspectives to Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle Drivers
journal, May 2012
- Axsen, Jonn; Kurani, Kenneth S.
- Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, Vol. 44, Issue 5
Optimizing and Diversifying Electric Vehicle Driving Range for U.S. Drivers
journal, November 2014
- Lin, Zhenhong
- Transportation Science, Vol. 48, Issue 4
The adoption of sustainable innovations: Driven by symbolic and environmental motives
journal, March 2014
- Noppers, Ernst H.; Keizer, Kees; Bolderdijk, Jan Willem
- Global Environmental Change, Vol. 25
The transportation sector and low-carbon growth pathways: modelling urban, infrastructure, and spatial determinants of mobility
journal, March 2013
- Waisman, Henri-David; Guivarch, Celine; Lecocq, Franck
- Climate Policy, Vol. 13, Issue sup01
Transport: A roadblock to climate change mitigation?
journal, November 2015
- Creutzig, F.; Jochem, P.; Edelenbosch, O. Y.
- Science, Vol. 350, Issue 6263
Gasoline Prices, Fuel Economy, and the Energy Paradox
journal, December 2014
- Allcott, Hunt; Wozny, Nathan
- Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 96, Issue 5
The adoption of sustainable innovations: The role of instrumental, environmental, and symbolic attributes for earlier and later adopters
journal, December 2015
- Noppers, Ernst H.; Keizer, Kees; Bockarjova, Marija
- Journal of Environmental Psychology, Vol. 44
Uncertainty, loss aversion, and markets for energy efficiency
journal, July 2011
- Greene, David L.
- Energy Economics, Vol. 33, Issue 4
Predictors of technical adoption and behavioural change to transport energy-saving measures in response to climate change
journal, October 2013
- Aini, M. S.; Chan, S. C.; Syuhaily, O.
- Energy Policy, Vol. 61
Global travel within the 2°C climate target
journal, June 2012
- Girod, Bastien; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Deetman, Sebastiaan
- Energy Policy, Vol. 45
Applying conjoint analysis to evaluate consumer preferences toward subcompact cars
journal, May 2014
- Wu, Wann Yih; Liao, Ying Kai; Chatwuthikrai, Anon
- Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 41, Issue 6
Estimating home energy decision parameters for a hybrid energy—economy policy model
journal, January 2006
- Jaccard, Mark; Dennis, Margo
- Environmental Modeling & Assessment, Vol. 11, Issue 2
Modelling energy transitions for climate targets under landscape and actor inertia
journal, September 2017
- Li, Francis G. N.; Strachan, Neil
- Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, Vol. 24
Using Attributional Life Cycle Assessment to Estimate Climate-Change Mitigation Benefits Misleads Policy Makers: Attributional LCA Can Mislead Policy Makers
journal, November 2013
- Plevin, Richard J.; Delucchi, Mark A.; Creutzig, Felix
- Journal of Industrial Ecology, Vol. 18, Issue 1
Incorporating social context and co-evolution in an innovation diffusion model—with an application to cleaner vehicles
journal, August 2011
- Dijk, Marc; Kemp, René; Valkering, Pieter
- Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Vol. 23, Issue 2
Model projections for household energy use in developing countries
journal, January 2012
- Daioglou, Vassilis; van Ruijven, Bas J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.
- Energy, Vol. 37, Issue 1
Understanding the human dimensions of a sustainable energy transition
journal, June 2015
- Steg, Linda; Perlaviciute, Goda; van der Werff, Ellen
- Frontiers in Psychology, Vol. 6
On the use and potential of behavioural economics from the perspective of transport and climate change
journal, September 2012
- Avineri, Erel
- Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 24
Potential for widespread electrification of personal vehicle travel in the United States
journal, August 2016
- Needell, Zachary A.; McNerney, James; Chang, Michael T.
- Nature Energy, Vol. 1, Issue 9
Light duty vehicle transportation and global climate policy: The importance of electric drive vehicles
journal, July 2013
- Bosetti, Valentina; Longden, Thomas
- Energy Policy, Vol. 58
Private household demand for vehicles on alternative fuels and drive trains: a review
journal, February 2013
- Turcksin, Laurence; Mairesse, Olivier; Macharis, Cathy
- European Transport Research Review, Vol. 5, Issue 3
Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices
journal, August 2017
- McCollum, David L.; Wilson, Charlie; Pettifor, Hazel
- Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 55
Happy or liberal? Making sense of behavior in transport policy design
journal, June 2016
- Mattauch, Linus; Ridgway, Monica; Creutzig, Felix
- Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 45
Realizing the electric-vehicle revolution
journal, April 2012
- Tran, Martino; Banister, David; Bishop, Justin D. K.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 5
Dynamic Wireless Power Transfer: Potential Impact on Plug-in Electric Vehicle Adoption
conference, April 2014
- Lin, Zhenhong; Li, Jan-Mou; Dong, Jing
- SAE 2014 World Congress & Exhibition, SAE Technical Paper Series
Light Duty Vehicle Transportation and Global Climate Policy: The Importance of Electric Drive Vehicles
journal, January 2012
- Bosetti, Valentina; Longden, Thomas
- SSRN Electronic Journal
Transport: A roadblock to climate change mitigation?
text, January 2015
- Creutzig, Felix; Jochem, Patrick; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.
- Karlsruhe
Interpersonal influence within car buyers' social networks: applying five perspectives to plug-in hybrid vehicle drivers
journal, January 2012
- Axsen, Jonn; Kurani, Kenneth S.
- Environment and Planning A, Vol. 44, Issue 5
Light Duty Vehicle Transportation and Global Climate Policy: The Importance of Electric Drive Vehicles
text, January 2012
- Bosetti, Valentina; Longden, Thomas; Bosetti, Valentina
- Unknown
Works referencing / citing this record:
CO 2 , water, and sunlight to hydrocarbon fuels: a sustained sunlight to fuel (Joule-to-Joule) photoconversion efficiency of 1%
journal, January 2019
- Sorcar, Saurav; Hwang, Yunju; Lee, Jaewoong
- Energy & Environmental Science, Vol. 12, Issue 9
Modelling innovation and the macroeconomics of low-carbon transitions: theory, perspectives and practical use
journal, May 2019
- Mercure, Jean-Francois; Knobloch, Florian; Pollitt, Hector
- Climate Policy, Vol. 19, Issue 8
Prioritizing electric miles over electric vehicles will deliver greater benefits at lower cost
journal, September 2019
- Rajagopal, Deepak; Phadke, Amol
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 9
Could a bioenergy program stimulate electric vehicle market penetration? Potential impacts of biogas to electricity annual rebate program
journal, December 2018
- Xie, Fei; Lin, Zhenhong; Podkaminer, Kara
- GCB Bioenergy, Vol. 11, Issue 4
Modelling innovation and the macroeconomics of low-carbon transitions: theory, perspectives and practical use
text, January 2019
- Mercure, Jean-Francois; Knobloch, Florian; Pollitt, Hector
- Figshare
Modelling innovation and the macroeconomics of low-carbon transitions: theory, perspectives and practical use
text, January 2019
- Mercure, Jean-Francois; Knobloch, Florian; Pollitt, Hector
- Figshare