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Title: Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles

Abstract

Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. In this work, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple global energy-economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to 2050. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary to drive widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient to bring low-carbon vehicles to the mass market, though it may have a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonized energy supply.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [3];  [3];  [4]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [5];  [6];  [7];  [8]; ORCiD logo [9]; ORCiD logo [10];  [6];  [11];  [12];  [13];  [14];  [7]; ORCiD logo [4]
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy
  2. International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom). Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
  3. Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Milan (Italy). Climate and Sustainable Innovation (CSI) Program, Eni Enrico Mattei Foundation (FEEM), and Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division (ECIP)
  4. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague (Netherlands). Climate, Air and Energy Dept.; Utrecht Univ. (Netherlands). Copernicus Inst. of Sustainable Development
  5. School of Bridges ParisTech, Nogent-sur-Marne (France). International Center for Research on Environment and Development (CIRED)
  6. National Technical Univ. of Athens, Zografou (Greece). E3MLab/Inst. of Communications and Computer Systems
  7. Univ. College London (UCL) (United Kingdom). UCL Energy Inst.
  8. International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
  9. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Center for Transportation Analysis (CTA); Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Industrial and Systems Engineering
  10. School of Bridges ParisTech, Nogent-sur-Marne (France). International Center for Research on Environment and Development (CIRED) and Society of Applied Mathematics and Humanities (SMASH)
  11. Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom). Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
  12. Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States). Inst. of Transportation Studies
  13. International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Graz Univ. of Technology (Austria). Inst. of Thermal Engineering; Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States). Payne Inst.
  14. Research Inst. of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE), Kyoto (Japan). Systems Analysis Group
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE); European Commission (EC)
OSTI Identifier:
1474484
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725; 308329
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Nature Energy
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 3; Journal Issue: 8; Journal ID: ISSN 2058-7546
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; 32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION

Citation Formats

McCollum, David L., Wilson, Charlie, Bevione, Michela, Carrara, Samuel, Edelenbosch, Oreane Y., Emmerling, Johannes, Guivarch, Céline, Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis, Keppo, Ilkka, Krey, Volker, Lin, Zhenhong, Broin, Eoin Ó., Paroussos, Leonidas, Pettifor, Hazel, Ramea, Kalai, Riahi, Keywan, Sano, Fuminori, Rodriguez, Baltazar Solano, and van Vuuren, Detlef P. Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z.
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McCollum, David L., Wilson, Charlie, Bevione, Michela, Carrara, Samuel, Edelenbosch, Oreane Y., Emmerling, Johannes, Guivarch, Céline, Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis, Keppo, Ilkka, Krey, Volker, Lin, Zhenhong, Broin, Eoin Ó., Paroussos, Leonidas, Pettifor, Hazel, Ramea, Kalai, Riahi, Keywan, Sano, Fuminori, Rodriguez, Baltazar Solano, & van Vuuren, Detlef P. Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles. United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z
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McCollum, David L., Wilson, Charlie, Bevione, Michela, Carrara, Samuel, Edelenbosch, Oreane Y., Emmerling, Johannes, Guivarch, Céline, Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis, Keppo, Ilkka, Krey, Volker, Lin, Zhenhong, Broin, Eoin Ó., Paroussos, Leonidas, Pettifor, Hazel, Ramea, Kalai, Riahi, Keywan, Sano, Fuminori, Rodriguez, Baltazar Solano, and van Vuuren, Detlef P. Mon . "Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles". United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1474484.
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@article{osti_1474484,
title = {Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles},
author = {McCollum, David L. and Wilson, Charlie and Bevione, Michela and Carrara, Samuel and Edelenbosch, Oreane Y. and Emmerling, Johannes and Guivarch, Céline and Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis and Keppo, Ilkka and Krey, Volker and Lin, Zhenhong and Broin, Eoin Ó. and Paroussos, Leonidas and Pettifor, Hazel and Ramea, Kalai and Riahi, Keywan and Sano, Fuminori and Rodriguez, Baltazar Solano and van Vuuren, Detlef P.},
abstractNote = {Burgeoning demands for mobility and private vehicle ownership undermine global efforts to reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Advanced vehicles powered by low-carbon sources of electricity or hydrogen offer an alternative to conventional fossil-fuelled technologies. Yet, despite ambitious pledges and investments by governments and automakers, it is by no means clear that these vehicles will ultimately reach mass-market consumers. In this work, we develop state-of-the-art representations of consumer preferences in multiple global energy-economy models, specifically focusing on the non-financial preferences of individuals. We employ these enhanced model formulations to analyse the potential for a low-carbon vehicle revolution up to 2050. Our analysis shows that a diverse set of measures targeting vehicle buyers is necessary to drive widespread adoption of clean technologies. Carbon pricing alone is insufficient to bring low-carbon vehicles to the mass market, though it may have a supporting role in ensuring a decarbonized energy supply.},
doi = {10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z},
journal = {Nature Energy},
number = 8,
volume = 3,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {7}
}
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DOI:  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0195-z
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