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Title: Investigating the future supply distribution of industrial grade wood pellets in the global bioenergy market

Abstract

This study analyzes the potential resource distribution in global competitive feedstock markets for industrial grade wood pellets. Based on historic trade patterns and expected future production and demand structures, a set of potential buyers and sellers of industrial grade wood pellets are simulated for 2022, 2030, and 2040. In contrast to previous trade modeling efforts, this study assumes a fully competitive market, i.e., excluding long-term contract arrangements, to show resource distributions under a potential future commodity market. This is done via a non-cooperative bi-level Stackelberg leader-follower game model. Of particular interest is the potential impact of international feedstock competition on the availability of US feedstock resources. The model results show that the main destinations for US wood pellet exports typically pay 10-20% more per tonne than the domestic market. The results show that domestic wood pellets are available to US industry at prices higher than the expected $88 per tonne delivered.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]
  1. Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
  2. Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Bioenergy Technologies Office (EE-3B)
OSTI Identifier:
1473707
Report Number(s):
INL/JOU-16-38378-Rev000
Journal ID: ISSN 1759-7269
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC07-05ID14517
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Biofuels
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Biofuels; Journal ID: ISSN 1759-7269
Publisher:
Taylor & Francis
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
09 BIOMASS FUELS; Stackelberg game, bi-level programming, international trade, wood pellets

Citation Formats

Roni, Mohammad S., Lamers, Patrick, and Hoefnagels, Ric. Investigating the future supply distribution of industrial grade wood pellets in the global bioenergy market. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1080/17597269.2018.1432268.
Roni, Mohammad S., Lamers, Patrick, & Hoefnagels, Ric. Investigating the future supply distribution of industrial grade wood pellets in the global bioenergy market. United States. doi:10.1080/17597269.2018.1432268.
Roni, Mohammad S., Lamers, Patrick, and Hoefnagels, Ric. Thu . "Investigating the future supply distribution of industrial grade wood pellets in the global bioenergy market". United States. doi:10.1080/17597269.2018.1432268. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1473707.
@article{osti_1473707,
title = {Investigating the future supply distribution of industrial grade wood pellets in the global bioenergy market},
author = {Roni, Mohammad S. and Lamers, Patrick and Hoefnagels, Ric},
abstractNote = {This study analyzes the potential resource distribution in global competitive feedstock markets for industrial grade wood pellets. Based on historic trade patterns and expected future production and demand structures, a set of potential buyers and sellers of industrial grade wood pellets are simulated for 2022, 2030, and 2040. In contrast to previous trade modeling efforts, this study assumes a fully competitive market, i.e., excluding long-term contract arrangements, to show resource distributions under a potential future commodity market. This is done via a non-cooperative bi-level Stackelberg leader-follower game model. Of particular interest is the potential impact of international feedstock competition on the availability of US feedstock resources. The model results show that the main destinations for US wood pellet exports typically pay 10-20% more per tonne than the domestic market. The results show that domestic wood pellets are available to US industry at prices higher than the expected $88 per tonne delivered.},
doi = {10.1080/17597269.2018.1432268},
journal = {Biofuels},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {2}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Figures / Tables:

Figure 1 Figure 1: Top destinations for wood pellets exported from the United States in 2012 through 2014 Tg [2]

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