Investigating the future supply distribution of industrial grade wood pellets in the global bioenergy market

doi:10.1080/17597269.2018.1432268

Title: Investigating the future supply distribution of industrial grade wood pellets in the global bioenergy market

Article Details
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This study analyzes the potential resource distribution in global competitive feedstock markets for industrial grade wood pellets. Based on historic trade patterns and expected future production and demand structures, a set of potential buyers and sellers of industrial grade wood pellets are simulated for 2022, 2030, and 2040. In contrast to previous trade modeling efforts, this study assumes a fully competitive market, i.e., excluding long-term contract arrangements, to show resource distributions under a potential future commodity market. This is done via a non-cooperative bi-level Stackelberg leader-follower game model. Of particular interest is the potential impact of international feedstock competition on the availability of US feedstock resources. The model results show that the main destinations for US wood pellet exports typically pay 10-20% more per tonne than the domestic market. The results show that domestic wood pellets are available to US industry at prices higher than the expected $88 per tonne delivered.

Authors:

; ;

Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands)

Publication Date:: 2018-02-08

Report Number(s):: INL/JOU-16-38378-Rev000
Journal ID: ISSN 1759-7269

Grant/Contract Number:: AC07-05ID14517

Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Biofuels

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Name: Biofuels; Journal ID: ISSN 1759-7269

Publisher:: Taylor & Francis

Research Org:: Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

Sponsoring Org:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Bioenergy Technologies Office (EE-3B)

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 09 BIOMASS FUELS; Stackelberg game, bi-level programming, international trade, wood pellets

OSTI Identifier:: 1473707


                    Roni, Mohammad S., Lamers, Patrick, and Hoefnagels, Ric. Investigating the future supply distribution of industrial grade wood pellets in the global bioenergy market.  United States: N. p.,  
        Web.  doi:10.1080/17597269.2018.1432268.

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                    Roni, Mohammad S., Lamers, Patrick, & Hoefnagels, Ric. Investigating the future supply distribution of industrial grade wood pellets in the global bioenergy market.  United States.  doi:10.1080/17597269.2018.1432268.

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                    Roni, Mohammad S., Lamers, Patrick, and Hoefnagels, Ric. 2018.  
        "Investigating the future supply distribution of industrial grade wood pellets in the global bioenergy market".  United States.  
        doi:10.1080/17597269.2018.1432268.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1473707.

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@article{osti_1473707,

  title        = {Investigating the future supply distribution of industrial grade wood pellets in the global bioenergy market},

  author       = {Roni, Mohammad S. and Lamers, Patrick and Hoefnagels, Ric},

  abstractNote = {This study analyzes the potential resource distribution in global competitive feedstock markets for industrial grade wood pellets. Based on historic trade patterns and expected future production and demand structures, a set of potential buyers and sellers of industrial grade wood pellets are simulated for 2022, 2030, and 2040. In contrast to previous trade modeling efforts, this study assumes a fully competitive market, i.e., excluding long-term contract arrangements, to show resource distributions under a potential future commodity market. This is done via a non-cooperative bi-level Stackelberg leader-follower game model. Of particular interest is the potential impact of international feedstock competition on the availability of US feedstock resources. The model results show that the main destinations for US wood pellet exports typically pay 10-20% more per tonne than the domestic market. The results show that domestic wood pellets are available to US industry at prices higher than the expected $88 per tonne delivered.},

  doi          = {10.1080/17597269.2018.1432268},

  journal      = {Biofuels},

  number       = ,

  volume       = ,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {2018},

  month        = {2}

}

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Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
Accepted Manuscript (DOE)
Publisher's Version of Record
10.1080/17597269.2018.1432268
https://doi.org/10.1080/17597269.2018.1432268

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