Investigating the future supply distribution of industrial grade wood pellets in the global bioenergy market

Roni, Mohammad S.; Lamers, Patrick; Hoefnagels, Ric

doi:10.1080/17597269.2018.1432268

Title: Investigating the future supply distribution of industrial grade wood pellets in the global bioenergy market

Abstract

This study analyzes the potential resource distribution in global competitive feedstock markets for industrial grade wood pellets. Based on historic trade patterns and expected future production and demand structures, a set of potential buyers and sellers of industrial grade wood pellets are simulated for 2022, 2030, and 2040. In contrast to previous trade modeling efforts, this study assumes a fully competitive market, i.e., excluding long-term contract arrangements, to show resource distributions under a potential future commodity market. This is done via a non-cooperative bi-level Stackelberg leader-follower game model. Of particular interest is the potential impact of international feedstock competition on the availability of US feedstock resources. The model results show that the main destinations for US wood pellet exports typically pay 10-20% more per tonne than the domestic market. The results show that domestic wood pellets are available to US industry at prices higher than the expected $88 per tonne delivered.

Authors:

^[1];

^[2]

Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (The Netherlands)

Publication Date:: Thu Feb 08 00:00:00 EST 2018

Research Org.:: Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Sustainable Transportation Office. Bioenergy Technologies Office

OSTI Identifier:: 1473707

Report Number(s):: INL/JOU-16-38378-Rev000
Journal ID: ISSN 1759-7269

Grant/Contract Number:: AC07-05ID14517

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Biofuels

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Name: Biofuels; Journal ID: ISSN 1759-7269

Publisher:: Taylor & Francis

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 09 BIOMASS FUELS; Stackelberg game, bi-level programming, international trade, wood pellets

Citation Formats


                    Roni, Mohammad S., Lamers, Patrick, and Hoefnagels, Ric. Investigating the future supply distribution of industrial grade wood pellets in the global bioenergy market.  United States: N. p., 2018. 
Web.  doi:10.1080/17597269.2018.1432268.

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                    Roni, Mohammad S., Lamers, Patrick, & Hoefnagels, Ric. Investigating the future supply distribution of industrial grade wood pellets in the global bioenergy market.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1080/17597269.2018.1432268

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                    Roni, Mohammad S., Lamers, Patrick, and Hoefnagels, Ric. Thu .  
"Investigating the future supply distribution of industrial grade wood pellets in the global bioenergy market".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1080/17597269.2018.1432268.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1473707.

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@article{osti_1473707,

  title        = {Investigating the future supply distribution of industrial grade wood pellets in the global bioenergy market},

  author       = {Roni, Mohammad S. and Lamers, Patrick and Hoefnagels, Ric},

  abstractNote = {This study analyzes the potential resource distribution in global competitive feedstock markets for industrial grade wood pellets. Based on historic trade patterns and expected future production and demand structures, a set of potential buyers and sellers of industrial grade wood pellets are simulated for 2022, 2030, and 2040. In contrast to previous trade modeling efforts, this study assumes a fully competitive market, i.e., excluding long-term contract arrangements, to show resource distributions under a potential future commodity market. This is done via a non-cooperative bi-level Stackelberg leader-follower game model. Of particular interest is the potential impact of international feedstock competition on the availability of US feedstock resources. The model results show that the main destinations for US wood pellet exports typically pay 10-20% more per tonne than the domestic market. The results show that domestic wood pellets are available to US industry at prices higher than the expected $88 per tonne delivered.},

  doi          = {10.1080/17597269.2018.1432268},

  journal      = {Biofuels},

  number       = ,

  volume       = ,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Thu Feb 08 00:00:00 EST 2018},

  month        = {Thu Feb 08 00:00:00 EST 2018}

}

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Journal Article:

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https://doi.org/10.1080/17597269.2018.1432268

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Figure 1: Top destinations for wood pellets exported from the United States in 2012 through 2014 Tg [2]

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Similar Records

Title: Investigating the future supply distribution of industrial grade wood pellets in the global bioenergy market

Abstract

Citation Formats

Figures / Tables:

A penalty function approach for solving bi-level linear programs journal, January 1993

Techno-economic assessment of pellets produced from steam pretreated biomass feedstock journal, April 2016

Economic impact of wood pellet co-firing in South and West Alabama journal, June 2013

Restricted generalized Nash equilibria and controlled penalty algorithm journal, May 2009

Elasticity of import demand for wood pellets by the European Union journal, August 2017

A game theory approach in seller–buyer supply chain journal, June 2009

Numerical solutions to coupled-constraint (or generalised Nash) equilibrium problems journal, November 2006

Production and quality analysis of pellets manufactured from five potential energy crops in the Northern Region of Costa Rica journal, April 2016

A bilevel mixed-integer program for critical infrastructure protection planning journal, June 2008

Global solid biomass trade for energy by 2020: an assessment of potential import streams and supply costs to North-West Europe under different sustainability constraints journal, February 2014

A linear two-level programming problem journal, January 1982

An Efficient Point Algorithm for a Linear Two-Stage Optimization Problem journal, August 1983

Two-Level Linear Programming journal, August 1984

Heating values of wood pellets from different species journal, July 2011

An overview of bilevel optimization journal, April 2007

Long-term operation of biomass-to-liquid systems coupled to gasification and Fischer–Tropsch processes for biofuel production journal, January 2013

Biofuel supply chain design under competitive agricultural land use and feedstock market equilibrium journal, September 2012

The suitability of wood pellet heating for domestic households: A review of literature journal, February 2015

A general bilevel linear programming formulation of the network design problem journal, August 1988

Lignocellulosic feedstock supply systems with intermodal and overseas transportation journal, May 2014

A supply chain network design model for biomass co-firing in coal-fired power plants journal, January 2014

Modeling price-driven interactions between wood bioenergy and global wood product markets journal, January 2014

Mathematical Programs with Optimization Problems in the Constraints journal, February 1973

Assessment of different feedstocks in South Tyrol (Northern Italy): Energy potential and suitability for domestic pellet boilers journal, July 2016

Strategic supply system design - a holistic evaluation of operational and production cost for a biorefinery supply chain: Strategic biorefinery feedstock supply system design journal, August 2015

Leadership and Competition in Network Supply Chains journal, June 2008

The Linear-Quadratic Bilevel Programming Problem journal, May 1994

An exploratory game-theoretic analysis of biomass electricity generation supply chain journal, November 2009

A Two-Sided Optimization for Theater Ballistic Missile Defense journal, October 2005

A Bilevel Model for Toll Optimization on a Multicommodity Transportation Network journal, November 2001

A Representation and Economic Interpretation of a Two-Level Programming Problem journal, September 1981

Game-theoretic modeling and optimization of multi-echelon supply chain design and operation under Stackelberg game and market equilibrium journal, December 2014

Evaluation of wood pellet application for residential heating in British Columbia based on a streamlined life cycle analysis journal, February 2013

Solving discretely-constrained MPEC problems with applications in electric power markets journal, January 2010

Qualitative insights into the commercialization of wood pellets: The case of Andalusia, Spain journal, May 2014

Bilevel approach to wind-CSP day-ahead scheduling with spinning reserve under controllable degree of trust journal, January 2016

Analysis of the global wood‐chip trade's response to renewable energy policies using a spatial price equilibrium model journal, February 2017

Effect of process parameters and raw material characteristics on physical and mechanical properties of wood pellets made from sugar maple particles journal, September 2015

Techno-economic analysis of decentralized biomass processing depots journal, October 2015

European wood pellet market integration – A study of the residential sector journal, January 2011

International and domestic uses of solid biofuels under different renewable energy support scenarios in the European Union journal, October 2014

Wood pellets production costs and energy consumption under different framework conditions in Northeast Argentina journal, March 2011

A Representation and Economic Interpretation of a Two-Level Programming Problem journal, September 1981

A penalty function approach for solving bi-level linear programs
journal, January 1993

Techno-economic assessment of pellets produced from steam pretreated biomass feedstock
journal, April 2016

Economic impact of wood pellet co-firing in South and West Alabama
journal, June 2013

Restricted generalized Nash equilibria and controlled penalty algorithm
journal, May 2009

Elasticity of import demand for wood pellets by the European Union
journal, August 2017

A game theory approach in seller–buyer supply chain
journal, June 2009

Numerical solutions to coupled-constraint (or generalised Nash) equilibrium problems
journal, November 2006

Production and quality analysis of pellets manufactured from five potential energy crops in the Northern Region of Costa Rica
journal, April 2016

A bilevel mixed-integer program for critical infrastructure protection planning
journal, June 2008

Global solid biomass trade for energy by 2020: an assessment of potential import streams and supply costs to North-West Europe under different sustainability constraints
journal, February 2014

A linear two-level programming problem
journal, January 1982

An Efficient Point Algorithm for a Linear Two-Stage Optimization Problem
journal, August 1983

Two-Level Linear Programming
journal, August 1984

Heating values of wood pellets from different species
journal, July 2011

An overview of bilevel optimization
journal, April 2007

Long-term operation of biomass-to-liquid systems coupled to gasification and Fischer–Tropsch processes for biofuel production
journal, January 2013

Biofuel supply chain design under competitive agricultural land use and feedstock market equilibrium
journal, September 2012

The suitability of wood pellet heating for domestic households: A review of literature
journal, February 2015

A general bilevel linear programming formulation of the network design problem
journal, August 1988

Lignocellulosic feedstock supply systems with intermodal and overseas transportation
journal, May 2014

A supply chain network design model for biomass co-firing in coal-fired power plants
journal, January 2014

Modeling price-driven interactions between wood bioenergy and global wood product markets
journal, January 2014

Mathematical Programs with Optimization Problems in the Constraints
journal, February 1973

Assessment of different feedstocks in South Tyrol (Northern Italy): Energy potential and suitability for domestic pellet boilers
journal, July 2016

Strategic supply system design - a holistic evaluation of operational and production cost for a biorefinery supply chain: Strategic biorefinery feedstock supply system design
journal, August 2015

Leadership and Competition in Network Supply Chains
journal, June 2008

The Linear-Quadratic Bilevel Programming Problem
journal, May 1994

An exploratory game-theoretic analysis of biomass electricity generation supply chain
journal, November 2009

A Two-Sided Optimization for Theater Ballistic Missile Defense
journal, October 2005

A Bilevel Model for Toll Optimization on a Multicommodity Transportation Network
journal, November 2001

A Representation and Economic Interpretation of a Two-Level Programming Problem
journal, September 1981

Game-theoretic modeling and optimization of multi-echelon supply chain design and operation under Stackelberg game and market equilibrium
journal, December 2014

Evaluation of wood pellet application for residential heating in British Columbia based on a streamlined life cycle analysis
journal, February 2013

Solving discretely-constrained MPEC problems with applications in electric power markets
journal, January 2010

Qualitative insights into the commercialization of wood pellets: The case of Andalusia, Spain
journal, May 2014

Bilevel approach to wind-CSP day-ahead scheduling with spinning reserve under controllable degree of trust
journal, January 2016

Analysis of the global wood‐chip trade's response to renewable energy policies using a spatial price equilibrium model
journal, February 2017

Effect of process parameters and raw material characteristics on physical and mechanical properties of wood pellets made from sugar maple particles
journal, September 2015

Techno-economic analysis of decentralized biomass processing depots
journal, October 2015

European wood pellet market integration – A study of the residential sector
journal, January 2011

International and domestic uses of solid biofuels under different renewable energy support scenarios in the European Union
journal, October 2014

Wood pellets production costs and energy consumption under different framework conditions in Northeast Argentina
journal, March 2011

A Representation and Economic Interpretation of a Two-Level Programming Problem
journal, September 1981