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Title: Perturbed Input Ensemble Modeling With the Space Weather Modeling Framework

Abstract

In this paper, to assess the effect of uncertainties in solar wind driving on the predictions from the operational configuration of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) we have developed a nonparametric method for generating multiple possible realizations of the solar wind just upstream of the bow shock, based on observations near L1. We have applied this method to the solar wind inputs at the upstream boundary of SWMF and have simulated the geomagnetic storm of 5 April 2010. We ran a 40 member ensemble for this event and have used this ensemble to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted Sym-H index and ground magnetic disturbances (GMDs) due to the uncertainty in the upstream boundary conditions. Both the ensemble mean and the unperturbed simulation tend to underpredict the magnitude of Sym-H in the quiet interval before the storm and overpredict in the storm itself, consistent with previous work. The ensemble mean is a more accurate predictor of Sym-H, improving the mean absolute error by nearly 2nT for this interval and displaying a smaller bias. We also examine the uncertainty in predicted maxima in GMDs. The confidence intervals are typically narrow during periods where the predicted dB H/dt is low. Themore » confidence intervals are often much wider where the median prediction is for enhanced dB H/dt. The ensemble also allows us to identify intervals of activity that cannot be explained by uncertainty in the solar wind driver, driving further model improvements. Finally, this work demonstrates the feasibility and importance of ensemble modeling for space weather applications.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Space Science and Applications Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos NM USA
  2. Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering Department University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USA, Department of Physics University of Texas at Arlington Arlington TX USA
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE; LANL Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program
OSTI Identifier:
1469713
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1467346; OSTI ID: 1469714
Report Number(s):
[LA-UR-18-25975]
[Journal ID: ISSN 1542-7390]
Grant/Contract Number:  
[20170047DR; AC52-06NA25396]
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Space Weather
Additional Journal Information:
[Journal Name: Space Weather Journal Volume: 16 Journal Issue: 9]; Journal ID: ISSN 1542-7390
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS; 58 GEOSCIENCES; Heliospheric and Magnetospheric Physics

Citation Formats

Morley, S. K., Welling, D. T., and Woodroffe, J. R. Perturbed Input Ensemble Modeling With the Space Weather Modeling Framework. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1029/2018SW002000.
Morley, S. K., Welling, D. T., & Woodroffe, J. R. Perturbed Input Ensemble Modeling With the Space Weather Modeling Framework. United States. doi:10.1029/2018SW002000.
Morley, S. K., Welling, D. T., and Woodroffe, J. R. Wed . "Perturbed Input Ensemble Modeling With the Space Weather Modeling Framework". United States. doi:10.1029/2018SW002000.
@article{osti_1469713,
title = {Perturbed Input Ensemble Modeling With the Space Weather Modeling Framework},
author = {Morley, S. K. and Welling, D. T. and Woodroffe, J. R.},
abstractNote = {In this paper, to assess the effect of uncertainties in solar wind driving on the predictions from the operational configuration of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) we have developed a nonparametric method for generating multiple possible realizations of the solar wind just upstream of the bow shock, based on observations near L1. We have applied this method to the solar wind inputs at the upstream boundary of SWMF and have simulated the geomagnetic storm of 5 April 2010. We ran a 40 member ensemble for this event and have used this ensemble to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted Sym-H index and ground magnetic disturbances (GMDs) due to the uncertainty in the upstream boundary conditions. Both the ensemble mean and the unperturbed simulation tend to underpredict the magnitude of Sym-H in the quiet interval before the storm and overpredict in the storm itself, consistent with previous work. The ensemble mean is a more accurate predictor of Sym-H, improving the mean absolute error by nearly 2nT for this interval and displaying a smaller bias. We also examine the uncertainty in predicted maxima in GMDs. The confidence intervals are typically narrow during periods where the predicted dBH/dt is low. The confidence intervals are often much wider where the median prediction is for enhanced dBH/dt. The ensemble also allows us to identify intervals of activity that cannot be explained by uncertainty in the solar wind driver, driving further model improvements. Finally, this work demonstrates the feasibility and importance of ensemble modeling for space weather applications.},
doi = {10.1029/2018SW002000},
journal = {Space Weather},
number = [9],
volume = [16],
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {9}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
DOI: 10.1029/2018SW002000

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 7 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Figures / Tables:

Table 1 Table 1: Contingency table of the comparison between predictions and observations. The letters a-d represent the number of cases in each category.

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