Methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes during the 21st century: An analysis with process-based models of lake evolution and biogeochemistry
Abstract
The importance of methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes in the global carbon cycle has been suggested by recent studies. These studies indicated that climate change influences this methane source mainly in two ways: the warming of lake sediments and the evolution of thermokarst lakes. Few studies have been conducted to quantify the two impacts together in a unified modeling framework. Here we adapt a region-specific lake evolution model to the pan-Arctic scale and couple it with a lake methane biogeochemical model to quantify the change of this freshwater methane source in the 21st century. Our simulations show that the extent of thaw lakes will increase throughout the 21st century in the northern lowlands of the pan-Arctic where the reworking of epigenetic ice in drained lake basins will continue. The projected methane emissions by 2100 are 28.3 ± 4.5 Tg CH4 yr-1 under a low warming scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6) and 32.7±5.2 Tg CH4 yr-1 under a high warming scenario (RCP 8.5), which are about 2.5 and 2.9 times the simulated present-day emissions. Most of the emitted methane originates from nonpermafrost carbon stock. For permafrost carbon, the methanogenesis will mineralize a cumulative amount of 3.4 ± 0.8 Pg Cmore »
- Authors:
-
- Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Purdue Climate Change Research Center
- Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Purdue Climate Change Research Center, and Dept. of Agronomy
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States); Univ. of California, Oakland, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1469113
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1402311
- Grant/Contract Number:
- FG02-08ER64599; AC02-05CH11231; DE‐FG02‐08ER64599
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 120; Journal Issue: 12; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-8953
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; methane emissions; pan‐Arctic lakes; Arctic landscape evolution; permafrost carbon
Citation Formats
Tan, Zeli, and Zhuang, Qianlai. Methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes during the 21st century: An analysis with process-based models of lake evolution and biogeochemistry. United States: N. p., 2015.
Web. doi:10.1002/2015JG003184.
Tan, Zeli, & Zhuang, Qianlai. Methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes during the 21st century: An analysis with process-based models of lake evolution and biogeochemistry. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003184
Tan, Zeli, and Zhuang, Qianlai. Wed .
"Methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes during the 21st century: An analysis with process-based models of lake evolution and biogeochemistry". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003184. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1469113.
@article{osti_1469113,
title = {Methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes during the 21st century: An analysis with process-based models of lake evolution and biogeochemistry},
author = {Tan, Zeli and Zhuang, Qianlai},
abstractNote = {The importance of methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes in the global carbon cycle has been suggested by recent studies. These studies indicated that climate change influences this methane source mainly in two ways: the warming of lake sediments and the evolution of thermokarst lakes. Few studies have been conducted to quantify the two impacts together in a unified modeling framework. Here we adapt a region-specific lake evolution model to the pan-Arctic scale and couple it with a lake methane biogeochemical model to quantify the change of this freshwater methane source in the 21st century. Our simulations show that the extent of thaw lakes will increase throughout the 21st century in the northern lowlands of the pan-Arctic where the reworking of epigenetic ice in drained lake basins will continue. The projected methane emissions by 2100 are 28.3 ± 4.5 Tg CH4 yr-1 under a low warming scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6) and 32.7±5.2 Tg CH4 yr-1 under a high warming scenario (RCP 8.5), which are about 2.5 and 2.9 times the simulated present-day emissions. Most of the emitted methane originates from nonpermafrost carbon stock. For permafrost carbon, the methanogenesis will mineralize a cumulative amount of 3.4 ± 0.8 Pg C under RCP 2.6 and 3.9 ± 0.9 Pg C under RCP 8.5 from 2006 to 2099. The projected emissions could increase atmospheric methane concentrations by 55.0–69.3 ppb. In conclusion, this study further indicates that the warming of lake sediments dominates the increase of methane emissions from pan-Arctic lakes in the future.},
doi = {10.1002/2015JG003184},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences},
number = 12,
volume = 120,
place = {United States},
year = {2015},
month = {12}
}
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