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Title: Decision Support for Mitigation of Livestock Disease: Rinderpest as a Case Study

Journal Article · · Frontiers in Veterinary Science
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
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A versatile, interactive model to predict geographically resolved epidemic progression after pathogen introduction into a population is presented. Deterministic simulations incorporating a compartmental disease model run rapidly, facilitating the analysis of mitigations such as vaccination and transmission reduction on epidemic spread and progression. We demonstrate the simulation model using rinderpest infection of cattle, a devastating livestock disease. Rinderpest has been extinguished in the wild, but it is still a threat due to stored virus in some laboratories. Comparison of simulations to historical outbreaks provides some validation of the model. Simulations of potential outbreaks demonstrate potential consequences of rinderpest virus release for a variety of possible disease parameters and mitigations. Our results indicate that a rinderpest outbreak could result in severe social and economic consequences.

Research Organization:
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE; LANL Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) (United States); National Science Foundation (NSF)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-06NA25396; DTRA10027-13794; CHE-1314029
OSTI ID:
1468364
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1475338
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-17-29923
Journal Information:
Frontiers in Veterinary Science, Vol. 5; ISSN 2297-1769
Publisher:
FrontiersCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 7 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Related Subjects

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES
Biological Science
decision support
mathematical epidemiology
rinderpest
mitigation
geography