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Title: Decision Support for Mitigation of Livestock Disease: Rinderpest as a Case Study

Abstract

A versatile, interactive model to predict geographically resolved epidemic progression after pathogen introduction into a population is presented. Deterministic simulations incorporating a compartmental disease model run rapidly, facilitating the analysis of mitigations such as vaccination and transmission reduction on epidemic spread and progression. We demonstrate the simulation model using rinderpest infection of cattle, a devastating livestock disease. Rinderpest has been extinguished in the wild, but it is still a threat due to stored virus in some laboratories. Comparison of simulations to historical outbreaks provides some validation of the model. Simulations of potential outbreaks demonstrate potential consequences of rinderpest virus release for a variety of possible disease parameters and mitigations. Our results indicate that a rinderpest outbreak could result in severe social and economic consequences.

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE; LANL Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) (United States); National Science Foundation (NSF)
OSTI Identifier:
1468364
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1475338
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-17-29923
Journal ID: ISSN 2297-1769
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC52-06NA25396; DTRA10027-13794; CHE-1314029
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Frontiers in Veterinary Science
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 2297-1769
Publisher:
Frontiers
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES; Biological Science; decision support, mathematical epidemiology, rinderpest, mitigation, geography

Citation Formats

Mourant, Judith R., Fenimore, Paul W., Manore, Carrie A., and McMahon, Benjamin H. Decision Support for Mitigation of Livestock Disease: Rinderpest as a Case Study. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.3389/fvets.2018.00182.
Mourant, Judith R., Fenimore, Paul W., Manore, Carrie A., & McMahon, Benjamin H. Decision Support for Mitigation of Livestock Disease: Rinderpest as a Case Study. United States. doi:10.3389/fvets.2018.00182.
Mourant, Judith R., Fenimore, Paul W., Manore, Carrie A., and McMahon, Benjamin H. Mon . "Decision Support for Mitigation of Livestock Disease: Rinderpest as a Case Study". United States. doi:10.3389/fvets.2018.00182.
@article{osti_1468364,
title = {Decision Support for Mitigation of Livestock Disease: Rinderpest as a Case Study},
author = {Mourant, Judith R. and Fenimore, Paul W. and Manore, Carrie A. and McMahon, Benjamin H.},
abstractNote = {A versatile, interactive model to predict geographically resolved epidemic progression after pathogen introduction into a population is presented. Deterministic simulations incorporating a compartmental disease model run rapidly, facilitating the analysis of mitigations such as vaccination and transmission reduction on epidemic spread and progression. We demonstrate the simulation model using rinderpest infection of cattle, a devastating livestock disease. Rinderpest has been extinguished in the wild, but it is still a threat due to stored virus in some laboratories. Comparison of simulations to historical outbreaks provides some validation of the model. Simulations of potential outbreaks demonstrate potential consequences of rinderpest virus release for a variety of possible disease parameters and mitigations. Our results indicate that a rinderpest outbreak could result in severe social and economic consequences.},
doi = {10.3389/fvets.2018.00182},
journal = {Frontiers in Veterinary Science},
number = ,
volume = 5,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {9}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2018.00182

Figures / Tables:

FIGURE 1 FIGURE 1: Disease progression for a single well-mixed geographical region. S, susceptible; E, exposed; I, infectious; H, seriously ill; D, dead; R, recovered; Vg, vaccine given; Vm, immune by vaccination. Culling is not shown, but can move cattle from states S, E, I, and H to D.

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