Decision Support for Mitigation of Livestock Disease: Rinderpest as a Case Study
Abstract
A versatile, interactive model to predict geographically resolved epidemic progression after pathogen introduction into a population is presented. Deterministic simulations incorporating a compartmental disease model run rapidly, facilitating the analysis of mitigations such as vaccination and transmission reduction on epidemic spread and progression. We demonstrate the simulation model using rinderpest infection of cattle, a devastating livestock disease. Rinderpest has been extinguished in the wild, but it is still a threat due to stored virus in some laboratories. Comparison of simulations to historical outbreaks provides some validation of the model. Simulations of potential outbreaks demonstrate potential consequences of rinderpest virus release for a variety of possible disease parameters and mitigations. Our results indicate that a rinderpest outbreak could result in severe social and economic consequences.
- Authors:
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE; LANL Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) (United States); National Science Foundation (NSF)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1468364
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1475338
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-17-29923
Journal ID: ISSN 2297-1769; 182
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-06NA25396; DTRA10027-13794; CHE-1314029
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Frontiers in Veterinary Science
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Frontiers in Veterinary Science Journal Volume: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 2297-1769
- Publisher:
- Frontiers Media SA
- Country of Publication:
- Switzerland
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES; Biological Science; decision support, mathematical epidemiology, rinderpest, mitigation, geography
Citation Formats
Mourant, Judith R., Fenimore, Paul W., Manore, Carrie A., and McMahon, Benjamin H. Decision Support for Mitigation of Livestock Disease: Rinderpest as a Case Study. Switzerland: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.3389/fvets.2018.00182.
Mourant, Judith R., Fenimore, Paul W., Manore, Carrie A., & McMahon, Benjamin H. Decision Support for Mitigation of Livestock Disease: Rinderpest as a Case Study. Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2018.00182
Mourant, Judith R., Fenimore, Paul W., Manore, Carrie A., and McMahon, Benjamin H. Mon .
"Decision Support for Mitigation of Livestock Disease: Rinderpest as a Case Study". Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2018.00182.
@article{osti_1468364,
title = {Decision Support for Mitigation of Livestock Disease: Rinderpest as a Case Study},
author = {Mourant, Judith R. and Fenimore, Paul W. and Manore, Carrie A. and McMahon, Benjamin H.},
abstractNote = {A versatile, interactive model to predict geographically resolved epidemic progression after pathogen introduction into a population is presented. Deterministic simulations incorporating a compartmental disease model run rapidly, facilitating the analysis of mitigations such as vaccination and transmission reduction on epidemic spread and progression. We demonstrate the simulation model using rinderpest infection of cattle, a devastating livestock disease. Rinderpest has been extinguished in the wild, but it is still a threat due to stored virus in some laboratories. Comparison of simulations to historical outbreaks provides some validation of the model. Simulations of potential outbreaks demonstrate potential consequences of rinderpest virus release for a variety of possible disease parameters and mitigations. Our results indicate that a rinderpest outbreak could result in severe social and economic consequences.},
doi = {10.3389/fvets.2018.00182},
journal = {Frontiers in Veterinary Science},
number = ,
volume = 5,
place = {Switzerland},
year = {Mon Sep 03 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Mon Sep 03 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2018.00182
Web of Science
Figures / Tables:
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