Title: Projected intensification of subseasonal temperature variability and heat waves in the Great Plains

Abstract

In this paper, compared to changes in the climatological mean temperature, we have less confidence in how much and by what mechanisms temperature variability may be affected by anthropogenic climate change. Here based on a 30-member climate change projection from an earth system model, we find that summertime subseasonal temperature variability in the U.S. Great Plains is enhanced by approximately 20% in 2070–2100 relative to 1980–2010. In particular, daily temperature departures from the new climatologies during future heat waves are on average 0.6°C warmer than are the corresponding departures under present-day conditions. Although in both periods heat waves in the Great Plains tend to be associated with planetary wave events, the amplification of future heat waves does not appear to be induced by changes in planetary wave variability in the midlatitudes. Instead, in this experiment the strengthening appears to be primarily caused by enhanced local land-atmosphere feedbacks resulting from a warmer/drier future climate.

Authors:

Teng, Haiyan ^[1]; Branstator, Grant ^[1]; Meehl, Gerald A. ^[1]; Washington, Warren M. ^[1]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

Publication Date:

2016-02-04

Research Org.:

Univ. of California, Oakland, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)

OSTI Identifier:

1467659

Grant/Contract Number:  

FC02-97ER62402; AC02-05CH11231

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Geophysical Research Letters

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: 43; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:

American Geophysical Union

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; climate change; extremes; variability change; heat waves