Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall [Seasonally ice-free Arctic favors dry California]
Abstract
© 2017 The Author(s). From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California's precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.
- Authors:
-
[1];
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). Climate Modeling and Analysis
- Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Dept. of Geography and Berkeley Atmospheric Sciences Center
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). Center for Accelerator Mass Spectrometry
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23), Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (SC-23.1 )
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1466961
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1476579
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-JRNL-680635
Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723; 804858
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-07NA27344; AC02-05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 8; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Cvijanovic, Ivana, Santer, Benjamin D., Bonfils, Céline, Lucas, Donald D., Chiang, John C. H., and Zimmerman, Susan. Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall [Seasonally ice-free Arctic favors dry California]. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01907-4.
Cvijanovic, Ivana, Santer, Benjamin D., Bonfils, Céline, Lucas, Donald D., Chiang, John C. H., & Zimmerman, Susan. Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall [Seasonally ice-free Arctic favors dry California]. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01907-4
Cvijanovic, Ivana, Santer, Benjamin D., Bonfils, Céline, Lucas, Donald D., Chiang, John C. H., and Zimmerman, Susan. Fri .
"Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall [Seasonally ice-free Arctic favors dry California]". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01907-4. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1466961.
@article{osti_1466961,
title = {Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall [Seasonally ice-free Arctic favors dry California]},
author = {Cvijanovic, Ivana and Santer, Benjamin D. and Bonfils, Céline and Lucas, Donald D. and Chiang, John C. H. and Zimmerman, Susan},
abstractNote = {© 2017 The Author(s). From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California's precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-017-01907-4},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = 1,
volume = 8,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Fri Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}
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Fast Response of the Tropics to an Abrupt Loss of Arctic Sea Ice via Ocean Dynamics
journal, May 2018
- Wang, Kun; Deser, Clara; Sun, Lantao
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 9
Cascading regime shifts within and across scales
journal, December 2018
- Rocha, Juan C.; Peterson, Garry; Bodin, Örjan
- Science, Vol. 362, Issue 6421
Global Impacts of Arctic Sea Ice Loss Mediated by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
journal, January 2019
- Liu, Wei; Fedorov, Alexey V.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 2
The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification
text, January 2019
- Smith, Doug; Screen, James; Deser, Clara
- Zenodo
The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification
text, January 2019
- Smith, Doug; Screen, James; Deser, Clara
- Zenodo
Influence of Arctic sea-ice variability on Pacific trade winds
journal, January 2020
- Kennel, Charles F.; Yulaeva, Elena
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 117, Issue 6