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Title: Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This work examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.
Authors:
ORCiD logo [1] ; ORCiD logo [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [5] ;  [6] ;  [7] ;  [8] ;  [1]
  1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  2. Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom). School of Geographical Sciences
  3. National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan)
  4. ETH Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science (IAC)
  5. Norwegian Meteorological Inst. (MET Norway), Oslo (Norway). Development Center for Weather Forecasting
  6. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Victoria, BC (Canada)
  7. German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)
  8. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231; 261821
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Earth System Dynamics (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Earth System Dynamics (Online); Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 1; Related Information: © Author(s) 2018.; Journal ID: ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Research Org:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23); Research Council of Norway; Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Bergen (Norway); Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) (Japan); German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
OSTI Identifier:
1465455

Wehner, Michael, Stone, Dáithí, Mitchell, Dann, Shiogama, Hideo, Fischer, Erich, Graff, Lise S., Kharin, Viatcheslav V., Lierhammer, Ludwig, Sanderson, Benjamin, and Krishnan, Harinarayan. Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble. United States: N. p., Web. doi:10.5194/esd-9-299-2018.
Wehner, Michael, Stone, Dáithí, Mitchell, Dann, Shiogama, Hideo, Fischer, Erich, Graff, Lise S., Kharin, Viatcheslav V., Lierhammer, Ludwig, Sanderson, Benjamin, & Krishnan, Harinarayan. Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble. United States. doi:10.5194/esd-9-299-2018.
Wehner, Michael, Stone, Dáithí, Mitchell, Dann, Shiogama, Hideo, Fischer, Erich, Graff, Lise S., Kharin, Viatcheslav V., Lierhammer, Ludwig, Sanderson, Benjamin, and Krishnan, Harinarayan. 2018. "Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble". United States. doi:10.5194/esd-9-299-2018. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1465455.
@article{osti_1465455,
title = {Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble},
author = {Wehner, Michael and Stone, Dáithí and Mitchell, Dann and Shiogama, Hideo and Fischer, Erich and Graff, Lise S. and Kharin, Viatcheslav V. and Lierhammer, Ludwig and Sanderson, Benjamin and Krishnan, Harinarayan},
abstractNote = {The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This work examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-9-299-2018},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics (Online)},
number = 1,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {3}
}