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Title: Emergent anthropogenic trends in California Current upwelling

Upwelling in the California Current System (CCS) sustains a productive ecosystem and is mediated by alongshore, equatorward wind stress. A decades-old hypothesis proposes that global warming will accelerate these upwelling favorable winds. Recent analyses provide empirical support for upwelling intensification in the poleward portion of the CCS. However, these studies rely on proxies for upwelling and are limited in their ability to distinguish anthropogenic forcing from internal climate variability. Here in this paper we estimate simulated changes in CCS upwelling from 1920 to 2100 using monthly output from a single climate model ensemble, where divergences among simulations can be attributed entirely to internal climate variability. Our projections suggest that CCS upwelling will become more intense in the spring and less intense in the summer as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Anthropogenic changes in upwelling will emerge primarily in the second half of the century.
ORCiD logo [1] ;  [2] ; ORCiD logo [1] ; ORCiD logo [3]
  1. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research
  2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). Earth System Research Lab., Physical Sciences Division
  3. Univ. of South Carolina, Columbia, SC (United States). Dept. of Biological Sciences and Marine Science Program
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
FG02-97ER25308; OCE-1434530; OCE-1558225
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 44; Journal Issue: 10; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
American Geophysical Union
Research Org:
Krell Inst., Ames, IA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
Country of Publication:
United States
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; coastal upwelling; internal variability; California Current; Earth System Model; model ensemble
OSTI Identifier:
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1377935