Co-occurrence of extremes in surface ozone, particulate matter, and temperature over eastern North America
Abstract
Heat waves and air pollution episodes pose a serious threat to human health and may worsen under future climate change. In this paper, we use 15 years (1999–2013) of commensurately gridded (1° x 1°) surface observations of extended summer (April–September) surface ozone (O3), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and maximum temperature (TX) over the eastern United States and Canada to construct a climatology of the coincidence, overlap, and lag in space and time of their extremes. Extremes of each quantity are defined climatologically at each grid cell as the 50 d with the highest values in three 5-y windows (~95th percentile). Any two extremes occur on the same day in the same grid cell more than 50% of the time in the northeastern United States, but on a domain average, co-occurrence is approximately 30%. Although not exactly co-occurring, many of these extremes show connectedness with consistent offsets in space and in time, which often defy traditional mechanistic explanations. All three extremes occur primarily in large-scale, multiday, spatially connected episodes with scales of >1,000 km and clearly coincide with large-scale meteorological features. The largest, longest-lived episodes have the highest incidence of co-occurrence and contain extreme values well above their local 95th percentilemore »
- Authors:
-
- Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1345072
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1465179
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0012536
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Journal Volume: 114 Journal Issue: 11; Journal ID: ISSN 0027-8424
- Publisher:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; extremes; ozone; particulate matter; heat waves
Citation Formats
Schnell, Jordan L., and Prather, Michael J. Co-occurrence of extremes in surface ozone, particulate matter, and temperature over eastern North America. United States: N. p., 2017.
Web. doi:10.1073/pnas.1614453114.
Schnell, Jordan L., & Prather, Michael J. Co-occurrence of extremes in surface ozone, particulate matter, and temperature over eastern North America. United States. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1614453114
Schnell, Jordan L., and Prather, Michael J. Mon .
"Co-occurrence of extremes in surface ozone, particulate matter, and temperature over eastern North America". United States. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1614453114.
@article{osti_1345072,
title = {Co-occurrence of extremes in surface ozone, particulate matter, and temperature over eastern North America},
author = {Schnell, Jordan L. and Prather, Michael J.},
abstractNote = {Heat waves and air pollution episodes pose a serious threat to human health and may worsen under future climate change. In this paper, we use 15 years (1999–2013) of commensurately gridded (1° x 1°) surface observations of extended summer (April–September) surface ozone (O3), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and maximum temperature (TX) over the eastern United States and Canada to construct a climatology of the coincidence, overlap, and lag in space and time of their extremes. Extremes of each quantity are defined climatologically at each grid cell as the 50 d with the highest values in three 5-y windows (~95th percentile). Any two extremes occur on the same day in the same grid cell more than 50% of the time in the northeastern United States, but on a domain average, co-occurrence is approximately 30%. Although not exactly co-occurring, many of these extremes show connectedness with consistent offsets in space and in time, which often defy traditional mechanistic explanations. All three extremes occur primarily in large-scale, multiday, spatially connected episodes with scales of >1,000 km and clearly coincide with large-scale meteorological features. The largest, longest-lived episodes have the highest incidence of co-occurrence and contain extreme values well above their local 95th percentile threshold, by +7 ppb for O3, +6 µg m–3 for PM2.5, and +1.7 °C for TX. Lastly, our results demonstrate the need to evaluate these extremes as synergistic costressors to accurately quantify their impacts on human health.},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1614453114},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
number = 11,
volume = 114,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Feb 27 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Mon Feb 27 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1614453114
Web of Science
Works referenced in this record:
Ozone in rural areas of the United States
journal, June 1989
- Logan, Jennifer A.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 94, Issue D6
More Frequent, Longer, and Hotter Heat Waves for Australia in the Twenty-First Century
journal, August 2014
- Cowan, Tim; Purich, Ariaan; Perkins, Sarah
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 15
Global air quality and climate
journal, January 2012
- Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Spracklen, Dominick V.
- Chemical Society Reviews, Vol. 41, Issue 19
Effects of future climate change on regional air pollution episodes in the United States
journal, January 2004
- Mickley, L. J.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 31, Issue 24
Effect of climate change on surface ozone over North America, Europe, and East Asia
journal, April 2016
- Schnell, Jordan L.; Prather, Michael J.; Josse, Beatrice
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 7
Effect of climate change on air quality
journal, January 2009
- Jacob, Daniel J.; Winner, Darrell A.
- Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 43, Issue 1
Skill in forecasting extreme ozone pollution episodes with a global atmospheric chemistry model
journal, January 2014
- Schnell, J. L.; Holmes, C. D.; Jangam, A.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 14, Issue 15
PM2.5 episodes as observed in the speciation trends network
journal, October 2004
- Chu, Shao-Hang
- Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 38, Issue 31
The Impact of Ambient Particle Pollution During Extreme-Temperature Days in Guangzhou City, China
journal, April 2014
- Li, Guoxing; Jiang, Lai; Zhang, Yajuan
- Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health, Vol. 26, Issue 6
More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century
journal, August 2004
- Meehl, G. A.
- Science, Vol. 305, Issue 5686
Impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations over the United States
journal, January 2007
- Tagaris, Efthimios; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Liao, Kuo-Jen
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 112, Issue D14
The impact of emission and climate change on ozone in the United States under representative concentration pathways (RCPs)
journal, January 2013
- Gao, Y.; Fu, J. S.; Drake, J. B.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 13, Issue 18
Soil Moisture–Atmosphere Interactions during the 2003 European Summer Heat Wave
journal, October 2007
- Fischer, E. M.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Vidale, P. L.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 20
Climate, Extreme Heat, and Electricity Demand in California
journal, June 2008
- Miller, Norman L.; Hayhoe, Katharine; Jin, Jiming
- Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 47, Issue 6
Impacts of the Bermuda High on Regional Climate and Ozone over the United States
journal, February 2013
- Zhu, Jinhong; Liang, Xin-Zhong
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 3
Influence of synoptic patterns on surface ozone variability over the eastern United States from 1980 to 2012
journal, January 2015
- Shen, L.; Mickley, L. J.; Tai, A. P. K.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 15, Issue 19
Sensitivity of US air quality to mid-latitude cyclone frequency and implications of 1980–2006 climate change
journal, January 2008
- Leibensperger, E. M.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 8, Issue 23
Use of North American and European air quality networks to evaluate global chemistry–climate modeling of surface ozone
journal, January 2015
- Schnell, J. L.; Prather, M. J.; Josse, B.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 15, Issue 18
Impact of increasing heat waves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multimodel analysis using extreme value theory: Predict Future Ozone Episodes
journal, April 2016
- Shen, L.; Mickley, L. J.; Gilleland, E.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 8
Excess mortality in England and Wales, and in Greater London, during the 1995 heatwave
journal, August 1998
- Rooney, C.; McMichael, A. J.; Kovats, R. S.
- Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, Vol. 52, Issue 8
An Estimate of the Global Burden of Anthropogenic Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter on Premature Human Mortality Using Atmospheric Modeling
journal, September 2010
- Anenberg, Susan C.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Tong, Daniel Q.
- Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 118, Issue 9
Ozone modifies associations between temperature and cardiovascular mortality: analysis of the NMMAPS data
journal, April 2008
- Ren, C.; Williams, G. M.; Morawska, L.
- Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Vol. 65, Issue 4
Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003
journal, February 2008
- Robine, Jean-Marie; Cheung, Siu Lan K.; Le Roy, Sophie
- Comptes Rendus Biologies, Vol. 331, Issue 2
Water Stress Reduces Ozone Injury via a Stomatal Mechanism
journal, April 1985
- Tingey, David T.; Hogsett, William E.
- Plant Physiology, Vol. 77, Issue 4
Occurrence and persistence of future atmospheric stagnation events
journal, June 2014
- Horton, Daniel E.; Skinner, Christopher B.; Singh, Deepti
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 8
Does Temperature Modify the Association between Air Pollution and Mortality? A Multicity Case-Crossover Analysis in Italy
journal, April 2008
- Stafoggia, M.; Schwartz, J.; Forastiere, F.
- American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 167, Issue 12
The 2003 heat wave in Europe: A shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations: THE 2003 HEAT WAVE IN EUROPE
journal, January 2004
- Beniston, Martin
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 31, Issue 2
Surface ozone variability and the jet position: Implications for projecting future air quality: OZONE VARIABILITY, JET, AND CLIMATE CHANGE
journal, June 2013
- Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Fiore, Arlene M.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 11
High ambient temperature and mortality: a review of epidemiologic studies from 2001 to 2008
journal, September 2009
- Basu, Rupa
- Environmental Health, Vol. 8, Issue 1
Heat Waves in the United States: Mortality Risk during Heat Waves and Effect Modification by Heat Wave Characteristics in 43 U.S. Communities
journal, February 2011
- Anderson, G. Brooke; Bell, Michelle L.
- Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 119, Issue 2
Heat-Related Deaths during the July 1995 Heat Wave in Chicago
journal, July 1996
- Semenza, Jan C.; Rubin, Carol H.; Falter, Kenneth H.
- New England Journal of Medicine, Vol. 335, Issue 2
Effects of Temperature and Ozone on Daily Mortality During the August 2003 Heat Wave in France
journal, July 2005
- Dear, Keith; Ranmuthugala, Geetha; Kjellström, Tord
- Archives of Environmental & Occupational Health, Vol. 60, Issue 4
How well do satellite AOD observations represent the spatial and temporal variability of PM 2.5 concentration for the United States?
journal, February 2015
- Li, Jing; Carlson, Barbara E.; Lacis, Andrew A.
- Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 102
Projecting policy-relevant metrics for high summertime ozone pollution events over the eastern United States due to climate and emission changes during the 21st century: Projected 21st C EUS high-ozone events
journal, January 2015
- Rieder, Harald E.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Horowitz, Larry W.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 120, Issue 2
Modeling the effects of meteorology on ozone in Houston using cluster analysis and generalized additive models
journal, August 1998
- Davis, J. M.; Eder, B. K.; Nychka, D.
- Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 32, Issue 14-15
Factors contributing to the summer 2003 European heatwave
journal, August 2004
- Black, Emily; Blackburn, Mike; Harrison, Giles
- Weather, Vol. 59, Issue 8
Response of air stagnation frequency to anthropogenically enhanced radiative forcing
journal, November 2012
- Horton, Daniel E.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 7, Issue 4
Observed relationships of ozone air pollution with temperature and emissions
journal, January 2009
- Bloomer, Bryan J.; Stehr, Jeffrey W.; Piety, Charles A.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 9
Air Quality and Climate Connections
journal, May 2015
- Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Leibensperger, Eric M.
- Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, Vol. 65, Issue 6
Correlations between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and meteorological variables in the United States: Implications for the sensitivity of PM2.5 to climate change
journal, October 2010
- Tai, Amos P. K.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Jacob, Daniel J.
- Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 44, Issue 32
Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003
journal, December 2004
- Stott, Peter A.; Stone, D. A.; Allen, M. R.
- Nature, Vol. 432, Issue 7017
Observed suppression of ozone formation at extremely high temperatures due to chemical and biophysical feedbacks
journal, November 2010
- Steiner, A. L.; Davis, A. J.; Sillman, S.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 46
High resolution exposure modelling of heat and air pollution and the impact on mortality
journal, April 2016
- Willers, Saskia M.; Jonker, Marcel F.; Klok, Lisette
- Environment International, Vol. 89-90