skip to main content
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: CLMcrop yields and water requirements: avoided impacts by choosing RCP 4.5 over 8.5

Abstract

Here, we perform CLMcrop simulations of the 20th and 21st centuries to assess potential avoided impacts in (a) crop yield losses and (b) water demand increases if humanity were to choose the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 instead of 8.5. RCP 8.5 imposes more extreme climatic changes on CLMcrop, while simultaneously exposing the crops to higher CO2 fertilization than RCP 4.5. As a result CLMcrop simulates global to regional scale changes in yield and water requirements for RCP 8.5 that exceed and sometimes more than double the RCP 4.5 changes relative to today. Under RCP 4.5 then, human societies may confront easier adaptation to changes in crop yields and water requirements. Under both RCPs, CLMcrop projects declining global yields for C3 crops (e.g., wheat, soybean, rice) without CO2 fertilization and C4 crops (corn, sugarcane) without irrigation. Yield declines of 3 t ha-1 stand out in parts of tropical and subtropical Africa and South America (presently areas of rapid agricultural expansion) and are due to increasing plant respiration and decreasing soil moisture, both due to rising temperatures. Irrigation and CO2 fertilization mitigate yield losses and in some cases lead to gains, so irrigation may help maintain or increase current yields throughmore » the 21st century. However, simulated global irrigation requirements increase: as much as 23 % for C4 crops without CO2 fertilization under RCP 8.5 and as little as 3 % for C4 crops with CO2 fertilization under RCP4.5. Nitrogen fertilized crops display greater vulnerability to climate and environmental change than unfertilized crops in our simulations; still relative to unfertilized crops, they deliver significantly higher yields and remain indispensable in supporting a more populous and affluent humanity. These CLMcrop results broadly agree with previously published outcomes for the 21st century. We describe in this article a new version of CLMcrop that represents prognostic crop behavior not only in the mid-latitudes but also the tropics.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5]
  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Climate Corporation, San Francisco, CA (United States)
  2. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO (United States)
  3. Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
  4. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research
  5. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES) (SC-22)
OSTI Identifier:
1465138
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-06CH11357
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Climatic Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 146; Journal Issue: 3-4; Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009
Publisher:
Springer
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Levis, Samuel, Badger, Andrew, Drewniak, Beth, Nevison, Cynthia, and Ren, Xiaolin. CLMcrop yields and water requirements: avoided impacts by choosing RCP 4.5 over 8.5. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1654-9.
Levis, Samuel, Badger, Andrew, Drewniak, Beth, Nevison, Cynthia, & Ren, Xiaolin. CLMcrop yields and water requirements: avoided impacts by choosing RCP 4.5 over 8.5. United States. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1654-9.
Levis, Samuel, Badger, Andrew, Drewniak, Beth, Nevison, Cynthia, and Ren, Xiaolin. Thu . "CLMcrop yields and water requirements: avoided impacts by choosing RCP 4.5 over 8.5". United States. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1654-9. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1465138.
@article{osti_1465138,
title = {CLMcrop yields and water requirements: avoided impacts by choosing RCP 4.5 over 8.5},
author = {Levis, Samuel and Badger, Andrew and Drewniak, Beth and Nevison, Cynthia and Ren, Xiaolin},
abstractNote = {Here, we perform CLMcrop simulations of the 20th and 21st centuries to assess potential avoided impacts in (a) crop yield losses and (b) water demand increases if humanity were to choose the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 instead of 8.5. RCP 8.5 imposes more extreme climatic changes on CLMcrop, while simultaneously exposing the crops to higher CO2 fertilization than RCP 4.5. As a result CLMcrop simulates global to regional scale changes in yield and water requirements for RCP 8.5 that exceed and sometimes more than double the RCP 4.5 changes relative to today. Under RCP 4.5 then, human societies may confront easier adaptation to changes in crop yields and water requirements. Under both RCPs, CLMcrop projects declining global yields for C3 crops (e.g., wheat, soybean, rice) without CO2 fertilization and C4 crops (corn, sugarcane) without irrigation. Yield declines of 3 t ha-1 stand out in parts of tropical and subtropical Africa and South America (presently areas of rapid agricultural expansion) and are due to increasing plant respiration and decreasing soil moisture, both due to rising temperatures. Irrigation and CO2 fertilization mitigate yield losses and in some cases lead to gains, so irrigation may help maintain or increase current yields through the 21st century. However, simulated global irrigation requirements increase: as much as 23 % for C4 crops without CO2 fertilization under RCP 8.5 and as little as 3 % for C4 crops with CO2 fertilization under RCP4.5. Nitrogen fertilized crops display greater vulnerability to climate and environmental change than unfertilized crops in our simulations; still relative to unfertilized crops, they deliver significantly higher yields and remain indispensable in supporting a more populous and affluent humanity. These CLMcrop results broadly agree with previously published outcomes for the 21st century. We describe in this article a new version of CLMcrop that represents prognostic crop behavior not only in the mid-latitudes but also the tropics.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1654-9},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = 3-4,
volume = 146,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {3}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 13 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research
journal, September 2013

  • Hurrell, James W.; Holland, M. M.; Gent, P. R.
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 94, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1

Interactive Crop Management in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1): Seasonal Influences on Land–Atmosphere Fluxes
journal, July 2012


Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison
journal, December 2013

  • Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222463110

How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?
journal, April 2014

  • Bassu, Simona; Brisson, Nadine; Durand, Jean-Louis
  • Global Change Biology, Vol. 20, Issue 7
  • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12520

Global modeling of irrigation water requirements: GLOBAL MODELING OF IRRIGATION WATER REQUIREMENTS
journal, April 2002

  • Döll, Petra; Siebert, Stefan
  • Water Resources Research, Vol. 38, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1029/2001WR000355

Modeling the impact of agricultural land use and management on US carbon budgets
journal, January 2014


Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change
journal, August 2009

  • Schlenker, Wolfram; Roberts, Michael J.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 37
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0906865106

Simulating crop phenology in the Community Land Model and its impact on energy and carbon fluxes: Evaluation of CLM crop simulations
journal, February 2015

  • Chen, Ming; Griffis, Tim J.; Baker, John
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 120, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1002/2014JG002780

Improving Photosynthesis
journal, June 2013


A Multidecadal Trend of Earlier Corn Planting in the Central USA
journal, January 2006


An Alternative Approach to the Actual Brazilian Maize Crop Zoning
journal, December 2014


Projected temperature changes indicate significant increase in interannual variability of U.S. maize yields: A Letter
journal, March 2012


Global scale climate–crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming
journal, March 2007


Global Agricultural Land Resources – A High Resolution Suitability Evaluation and Its Perspectives until 2100 under Climate Change Conditions
journal, September 2014


Impact of Climate Change and Variability on Irrigation Requirements: A Global Perspective
journal, August 2002


Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980
journal, May 2011


The Influence of Chronic Ozone Exposure on Global Carbon and Water Cycles
journal, January 2015


Climate System Response to External Forcings and Climate Change Projections in CCSM4
journal, June 2012

  • Meehl, Gerald A.; Washington, Warren M.; Arblaster, Julie M.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 11
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00240.1

Characterizing the Spatial Patterns of Global Fertilizer Application and Manure Production
journal, January 2010

  • Potter, Philip; Ramankutty, Navin; Bennett, Elena M.
  • Earth Interactions, Vol. 14, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1175/2009EI288.1

Modeling the potential change in yield and distribution of the earth's crops under a warmed climate
journal, January 1993


The global distribution of cultivable lands: current patterns and sensitivity to possible climate change
journal, September 2002


Effects of global irrigation on the near-surface climate
journal, July 2008

  • Sacks, William J.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Buenning, Nikolaus
  • Climate Dynamics, Vol. 33, Issue 2-3
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-008-0445-z

Getting caught with our plants down: the risks of a global crop yield slowdown from climate trends in the next two decades
journal, June 2014


Delivering food security without increasing pressure on land
journal, March 2013


Farming the planet: 2. Geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000: GLOBAL CROP AREAS AND YIELDS IN 2000
journal, March 2008

  • Monfreda, Chad; Ramankutty, Navin; Foley, Jonathan A.
  • Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 22, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1029/2007GB002947

Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios
journal, April 2004


Threat to future global food security from climate change and ozone air pollution
journal, July 2014

  • Tai, Amos P. K.; Martin, Maria Val; Heald, Colette L.
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2317

The representative concentration pathways: an overview
journal, August 2011


Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios
journal, April 2004


The effect of vertically resolved soil biogeochemistry and alternate soil C and N models on C dynamics of CLM4
journal, January 2013


Global hot-spots of heat stress on agricultural crops due to climate change
journal, March 2013


The Community Land Model underestimates land-use CO 2 emissions by neglecting soil disturbance from cultivation
journal, January 2014

  • Levis, S.; Hartman, M. D.; Bonan, G. B.
  • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 7, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-7-613-2014

A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation
journal, March 2014

  • Challinor, A. J.; Watson, J.; Lobell, D. B.
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2153

Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition
journal, May 2014

  • Myers, Samuel S.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Kloog, Itai
  • Nature, Vol. 510, Issue 7503
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature13179

Modeling agriculture in the Community Land Model
journal, January 2013

  • Drewniak, B.; Song, J.; Prell, J.
  • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 6, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-6-495-2013

Trends and Variability in U.S. Corn Yields Over the Twentieth Century
journal, March 2005

  • Kucharik, Christopher J.; Ramankutty, Navin
  • Earth Interactions, Vol. 9, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1175/EI098.1

Variations in the sensitivity of US maize yield to extreme temperatures by region and growth phase
journal, March 2015


Impact of soil moisture‐climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE‐CMIP5 experiment
journal, October 2013

  • Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wilhelm, Micah; Stanelle, Tanja
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 19
  • DOI: 10.1002/grl.50956

Regional disparities in the CO 2 fertilization effect and implications for crop yields
journal, March 2013


Climate response to Amazon forest replacement by heterogeneous crop cover
journal, January 2015

  • Badger, A. M.; Dirmeyer, P. A.
  • Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, Vol. 12, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.5194/hessd-12-879-2015

Future of the area equipped for irrigation
journal, April 2014


Elevated CO2 effects on plant carbon, nitrogen, and water relations: six important lessons from FACE
journal, April 2009

  • Leakey, Andrew D. B.; Ainsworth, Elizabeth A.; Bernacchi, Carl J.
  • Journal of Experimental Botany, Vol. 60, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1093/jxb/erp096

Contribution of Planting Date Trends to Increased Maize Yields in the Central United States
journal, January 2008


Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures
journal, March 2014


Appraisal and Assessment of World Water Resources
journal, March 2000


    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Avoided economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: integrating a land surface model (CLM) with a global economic model (iPETS)
    journal, September 2016


    Avoided economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: integrating a land surface model (CLM) with a global economic model (iPETS)
    journal, September 2016