Observational constraint on cloud susceptibility weakened by aerosol retrieval limitations
Abstract
Model estimates of aerosol impacts on climate frequently exceed observational estimates. Conventional evaluation procedures generally neglect sampling and retrieval differences that confound interpretation of discrepancies. Here we show that satellite simulators can reconcile differences between modeled and retrieved estimates of aerosol climate impacts. A-train satellite simulators overflying the model atmosphere matching satellite retrieval procedures moderately underestimate the model’s total aerosol direct radiative effect and significantly underestimate anthropogenic aerosol indirect effects (by a factor of 3). Model cloud droplet size and precipitation probability retrieved from simulators indicate significantly less sensitivity to aerosols than the real model sensitivity, exhibiting much better agreement with satellite estimates. While climate models are still likely to have substantial deficiencies in representing aerosolclimate interactions, inconsistent comparisons between modeled and observed estimates can lead to inappropriate model calibration, development, and interpretation. Simulators are a necessary tool for comparing models and satellite estimates of aerosol climate effects.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[1];
[3];
[1]
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sorbonne Univ., Paris (France); Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau (France)
- NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1463346
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1513205
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-118058
Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723; PII: 5028
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Ma, Po -Lun, Rasch, Philip J., Chepfer, Helene, Winker, David M., and Ghan, Steven J. Observational constraint on cloud susceptibility weakened by aerosol retrieval limitations. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1038/S41467-018-05028-4.
Ma, Po -Lun, Rasch, Philip J., Chepfer, Helene, Winker, David M., & Ghan, Steven J. Observational constraint on cloud susceptibility weakened by aerosol retrieval limitations. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/S41467-018-05028-4
Ma, Po -Lun, Rasch, Philip J., Chepfer, Helene, Winker, David M., and Ghan, Steven J. Fri .
"Observational constraint on cloud susceptibility weakened by aerosol retrieval limitations". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/S41467-018-05028-4. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1463346.
@article{osti_1463346,
title = {Observational constraint on cloud susceptibility weakened by aerosol retrieval limitations},
author = {Ma, Po -Lun and Rasch, Philip J. and Chepfer, Helene and Winker, David M. and Ghan, Steven J.},
abstractNote = {Model estimates of aerosol impacts on climate frequently exceed observational estimates. Conventional evaluation procedures generally neglect sampling and retrieval differences that confound interpretation of discrepancies. Here we show that satellite simulators can reconcile differences between modeled and retrieved estimates of aerosol climate impacts. A-train satellite simulators overflying the model atmosphere matching satellite retrieval procedures moderately underestimate the model’s total aerosol direct radiative effect and significantly underestimate anthropogenic aerosol indirect effects (by a factor of 3). Model cloud droplet size and precipitation probability retrieved from simulators indicate significantly less sensitivity to aerosols than the real model sensitivity, exhibiting much better agreement with satellite estimates. While climate models are still likely to have substantial deficiencies in representing aerosolclimate interactions, inconsistent comparisons between modeled and observed estimates can lead to inappropriate model calibration, development, and interpretation. Simulators are a necessary tool for comparing models and satellite estimates of aerosol climate effects.},
doi = {10.1038/S41467-018-05028-4},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = 1,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {7}
}
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Figures / Tables:
Fig. 1 : Global mean susceptibility of cloud droplet size, susceptibility of precipitation probability, and effective radiative forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions. Estimates of SRe = −∂ln(Re)/∂ln(CCN)18, SPOP=−∂ln(POP)/ ∂ln(CCN)6, and the inferred ERFaci are derived from satellite retrievals and CAM5 model simulation when accounting for sampling and retrieval limitations. Observationalmore »
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