Observational constraint on cloud susceptibility weakened by aerosol retrieval limitations
Abstract
Model estimates of aerosol impacts on climate frequently exceed observational estimates. Conventional evaluation procedures generally neglect sampling and retrieval differences that confound interpretation of discrepancies. Here we show that satellite simulators can reconcile differences between modeled and retrieved estimates of aerosol climate impacts. A-train satellite simulators overflying the model atmosphere matching satellite retrieval procedures moderately underestimate the model’s total aerosol direct radiative effect and significantly underestimate anthropogenic aerosol indirect effects (by a factor of 3). Model cloud droplet size and precipitation probability retrieved from simulators indicate significantly less sensitivity to aerosols than the real model sensitivity, exhibiting much better agreement with satellite estimates. While climate models are still likely to have substantial deficiencies in representing aerosolclimate interactions, inconsistent comparisons between modeled and observed estimates can lead to inappropriate model calibration, development, and interpretation. Simulators are a necessary tool for comparing models and satellite estimates of aerosol climate effects.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[1];
[3];
[1]
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sorbonne Univ., Paris (France); Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau (France)
- NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1463346
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1513205
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-118058
Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723; PII: 5028
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Ma, Po -Lun, Rasch, Philip J., Chepfer, Helene, Winker, David M., and Ghan, Steven J. Observational constraint on cloud susceptibility weakened by aerosol retrieval limitations. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1038/S41467-018-05028-4.
Ma, Po -Lun, Rasch, Philip J., Chepfer, Helene, Winker, David M., & Ghan, Steven J. Observational constraint on cloud susceptibility weakened by aerosol retrieval limitations. United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/S41467-018-05028-4
Ma, Po -Lun, Rasch, Philip J., Chepfer, Helene, Winker, David M., and Ghan, Steven J. Fri .
"Observational constraint on cloud susceptibility weakened by aerosol retrieval limitations". United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/S41467-018-05028-4. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1463346.
@article{osti_1463346,
title = {Observational constraint on cloud susceptibility weakened by aerosol retrieval limitations},
author = {Ma, Po -Lun and Rasch, Philip J. and Chepfer, Helene and Winker, David M. and Ghan, Steven J.},
abstractNote = {Model estimates of aerosol impacts on climate frequently exceed observational estimates. Conventional evaluation procedures generally neglect sampling and retrieval differences that confound interpretation of discrepancies. Here we show that satellite simulators can reconcile differences between modeled and retrieved estimates of aerosol climate impacts. A-train satellite simulators overflying the model atmosphere matching satellite retrieval procedures moderately underestimate the model’s total aerosol direct radiative effect and significantly underestimate anthropogenic aerosol indirect effects (by a factor of 3). Model cloud droplet size and precipitation probability retrieved from simulators indicate significantly less sensitivity to aerosols than the real model sensitivity, exhibiting much better agreement with satellite estimates. While climate models are still likely to have substantial deficiencies in representing aerosolclimate interactions, inconsistent comparisons between modeled and observed estimates can lead to inappropriate model calibration, development, and interpretation. Simulators are a necessary tool for comparing models and satellite estimates of aerosol climate effects.},
doi = {10.1038/S41467-018-05028-4},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = 1,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {7}
}
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Figures / Tables:
Fig. 1 : Global mean susceptibility of cloud droplet size, susceptibility of precipitation probability, and effective radiative forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions. Estimates of SRe = −∂ln(Re)/∂ln(CCN)18, SPOP=−∂ln(POP)/ ∂ln(CCN)6, and the inferred ERFaci are derived from satellite retrievals and CAM5 model simulation when accounting for sampling and retrieval limitations. Observationalmore »
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Droplet nucleation: Physically-based parameterizations and comparative evaluation: DROPLET NUCLEATION
journal, April 2011
- Ghan, Steven J.; Abdul-Razzak, Hayder; Nenes, Athanasios
- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 3, Issue 4
Strong constraints on aerosol–cloud interactions from volcanic eruptions
journal, June 2017
- Malavelle, Florent F.; Haywood, Jim M.; Jones, Andy
- Nature, Vol. 546, Issue 7659
Evaluation of tropical cloud and precipitation statistics of Community Atmosphere Model version 3 using CloudSat and CALIPSO data
journal, January 2010
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- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 115, Issue D12
Improvements of top-of-atmosphere and surface irradiance computations with CALIPSO-, CloudSat-, and MODIS-derived cloud and aerosol properties
journal, January 2011
- Kato, Seiji; Rose, Fred G.; Sun-Mack, Sunny
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, Issue D19
Limitations of passive remote sensing to constrain global cloud condensation nuclei
journal, January 2016
- Stier, Philip
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 16, Issue 10
Aerosol indirect effects – general circulation model intercomparison and evaluation with satellite data
journal, January 2009
- Quaas, J.; Ming, Y.; Menon, S.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 9, Issue 22
A possible correlation between satellite-derived cloud and aerosol microphysical parameters
journal, April 2001
- Nakajima, Teruyuki; Higurashi, Akiko; Kawamoto, Kazuaki
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 28, Issue 7
Constraining the instantaneous aerosol influence on cloud albedo
journal, April 2017
- Gryspeerdt, Edward; Quaas, Johannes; Ferrachat, Sylvaine
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 19
Evaluating cloud tuning in a climate model with satellite observations: EVALUATION OF CLOUD TUNING
journal, August 2013
- Suzuki, Kentaroh; Golaz, Jean-Christophe; Stephens, Graeme L.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 16
Autoxidation as a major player in the fate of terrestrial particulate organic matter in seawater: ESTUARINE AUTOXIDATION OF TPOM
journal, May 2017
- Galeron, Marie-Aimée; Radakovitch, Olivier; Charrière, Bruno
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 122, Issue 5
Challenges in constraining anthropogenic aerosol effects on cloud radiative forcing using present-day spatiotemporal variability
journal, February 2016
- Ghan, Steven; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Shipeng
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, Issue 21
Constraining cloud lifetime effects of aerosols using A-Train satellite observations: CONSTRAINING CLOUD LIFETIME EFFECTS
journal, August 2012
- Wang, Minghuai; Ghan, Steven; Liu, Xiaohong
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 15
Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol–climate model intercomparison studies
journal, January 2014
- Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 14, Issue 16
The EarthCARE Satellite: The Next Step Forward in Global Measurements of Clouds, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Radiation
journal, August 2015
- Illingworth, A. J.; Barker, H. W.; Beljaars, A.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, Issue 8
The GCM-Oriented CALIPSO Cloud Product (CALIPSO-GOCCP)
journal, January 2010
- Chepfer, H.; Bony, S.; Winker, D.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 115
A comparison of simulated cloud radar output from the multiscale modeling framework global climate model with CloudSat cloud radar observations
journal, January 2009
- Marchand, Roger; Haynes, John; Mace, Gerald G.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 114
Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) global aerosol optical depth validation based on 2 years of coincident Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) observations
journal, January 2005
- Kahn, Ralph A.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 110, Issue D10
Satellite-based estimate of the direct and indirect aerosol climate forcing: SATELLITE-ESTIMATE OF AEROSOL FORCINGS
journal, March 2008
- Quaas, Johannes; Boucher, Olivier; Bellouin, Nicolas
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 113, Issue D5
MODIS observations of enhanced clear sky reflectance near clouds
journal, January 2009
- Várnai, Tamás; Marshak, Alexander
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 6
Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol−cloud interactions in the climate system
journal, May 2016
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- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, Issue 21
Reconciling Simulated and Observed Views of Clouds: MODIS, ISCCP, and the Limits of Instrument Simulators
journal, July 2012
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- Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 13
A New Two-Moment Bulk Stratiform Cloud Microphysics Scheme in the Community Atmosphere Model, Version 3 (CAM3). Part I: Description and Numerical Tests
journal, August 2008
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- Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 15
CERES Level 2 NEWS CCCM Aqua-FM3-MODIS-CAL-CS HDF File - Release B1
dataset, January 2008
- Loeb, Norman
- NASA Langley Atmospheric Science Data Center DAAC
Analysis of polarimetric satellite measurements suggests stronger cooling due to aerosol-cloud interactions
journal, November 2019
- Hasekamp, Otto P.; Gryspeerdt, Edward; Quaas, Johannes
- Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
journal, April 2011
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- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, Issue 656
Wet scavenging limits the detection of aerosol effects on precipitation
journal, January 2015
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- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 15, Issue 13
The role of circulation features on black carbon transport into the Arctic in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5): BC TRANSPORT IN OFF-LINE CAM5
journal, May 2013
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- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 10
Fully Automated Detection of Cloud and Aerosol Layers in the CALIPSO Lidar Measurements
journal, October 2009
- Vaughan, Mark A.; Powell, Kathleen A.; Winker, David M.
- Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 26, Issue 10
Constraining the influence of natural variability to improve estimates of global aerosol indirect effects in a nudged version of the Community Atmosphere Model 5: ESTIMATES OF AEROSOL INDIRECT EFFECTS
journal, December 2012
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- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, Issue D23
Comparison of aerosol chemistry transport model simulations with lidar and Sun photometer observations at a site near Paris: CHIMERE EVALUATION WITH OPTICAL DATA
journal, December 2004
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- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 109, Issue D23
Effects of cloud horizontal inhomogeneity and drizzle on remote sensing of cloud droplet effective radius: Case studies based on large-eddy simulations: HETEROGENEITY AND DRIZZLE EFFECT ON EFFECTIVE RADIUS RETRIEVAL
journal, October 2012
- Zhang, Zhibo; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Feingold, Graham
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, Issue D19
Use of the CALIOP vertical feature mask for evaluating global aerosol models
journal, January 2015
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- Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, Vol. 8, Issue 9
Comparing continental and oceanic cloud susceptibilities to aerosols: CLOUD SUSCEPTIBILITY TO AEROSOLS
journal, August 2003
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- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 30, Issue 15
Lidar signal simulation for the evaluation of aerosols in chemistry transport models
journal, January 2012
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- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 5, Issue 6
GCM Simulations of the Aerosol Indirect Effect: Sensitivity to Cloud Parameterization and Aerosol Burden
journal, February 2002
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- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 59, Issue 3
The Collection 6 MODIS aerosol products over land and ocean
journal, January 2013
- Levy, R. C.; Mattoo, S.; Munchak, L. A.
- Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, Vol. 6, Issue 11
First measurements of the Twomey indirect effect using ground-based remote sensors: SURFACE REMOTE SENSING OF THE INDIRECT EFFECT
journal, March 2003
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- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 30, Issue 6
A simple model for the cloud adjacency effect and the apparent bluing of aerosols near clouds
journal, January 2008
- Marshak, Alexander; Wen, Guoyong; Coakley, James A.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, Issue D14
Aerosol–cloud closure study on cloud optical properties using remotely piloted aircraft measurements during a BACCHUS field campaign in Cyprus
journal, January 2019
- Calmer, Radiance; Roberts, Gregory C.; Sanchez, Kevin J.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 22
Twentieth century climate model response and climate sensitivity
journal, January 2007
- Kiehl, Jeffrey T.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 22
The MODIS Aerosol Algorithm, Products, and Validation
journal, April 2005
- Remer, L. A.; Kaufman, Y. J.; Tanré, D.
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 62, Issue 4
Looking through the haze: evaluating the CALIPSO level 2 aerosol optical depth using airborne high spectral resolution lidar data
journal, January 2014
- Rogers, R. R.; Vaughan, M. A.; Hostetler, C. A.
- Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, Vol. 7, Issue 12
Will a perfect model agree with perfect observations? The impact of spatial sampling
journal, January 2016
- Schutgens, Nick A. J.; Gryspeerdt, Edward; Weigum, Natalie
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 16, Issue 10
The CALIPSO Automated Aerosol Classification and Lidar Ratio Selection Algorithm
journal, October 2009
- Omar, Ali H.; Winker, David M.; Vaughan, Mark A.
- Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 26, Issue 10
A New Cloud Physics Parameterization in a Large-Eddy Simulation Model of Marine Stratocumulus
journal, January 2000
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Figures / Tables found in this record:
Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.