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Title: Impacts of compound extreme weather events on ozone in the present and future

Abstract

The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) was used to study the effect of extreme weather events on ozone in the US for historical (2001–2010) and future (2046–2055) periods under the RCP8.5 scenario. During extreme weather events, including heat waves, atmospheric stagnation, and their compound events, ozone concentration is much higher compared to the non-extreme events period. A striking enhancement of effect during compound events is revealed when heat wave and stagnation occur simultaneously as both high temperature and low wind speed promote the production of high ozone concentrations. In regions with high emissions, compound extreme events can shift the high-end tails of the probability density functions (PDFs) of ozone to even higher values to generate extreme ozone episodes. In regions with low emissions, extreme events can still increase high-ozone frequency but the high-end tails of the PDFs are constrained by the low emissions. Despite the large anthropogenic emission reduction projected for the future, compound events increase ozone more than the single events by 10 to 13%, comparable to the present, and high-ozone episodes with a maximum daily 8h average (MDA8) ozone concentration over 70ppbv are not eliminated. Using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, the frequency of compoundmore » events is found to increase more dominantly compared to the increased frequency of single events in the future over the US, Europe, and China. High-ozone episodes will likely continue in the future due to increases in both frequency and intensity of extreme events, despite reductions in anthropogenic emissions of its precursors. However, the latter could reduce or eliminate extreme ozone episodes; thus improving projections of compound events and their impacts on extreme ozone may better constrain future projections of extreme ozone episodes that have detrimental effects on human health.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [1];  [3];  [4];  [4];  [1]
  1. Zhejiang Univ., Hangzhou (China). State Key Lab. of Clean Energy. Dept. of Energy Engineering
  2. Ocean Univ. of China, Qingdao (China). Key Lab. of Marine Environment and Ecology
  3. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division
  4. North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States). Dept. of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States); Zhejiang Univ., Hangzhou (China); Ocean Univ. of China, Qingdao (China)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE; USEPA; National Key Project of Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) (China); National Natural Science Foundation of China (NNSFC); Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (China)
OSTI Identifier:
1463340
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-135886
Journal ID: ISSN 1680-7324
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830; RD835871; 2017YFC0209801; 41705124
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online); Journal Volume: 18; Journal Issue: 13; Journal ID: ISSN 1680-7324
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Zhang, Junxi, Gao, Yang, Luo, Kun, Leung, L. Ruby, Zhang, Yang, Wang, Kai, and Fan, Jianren. Impacts of compound extreme weather events on ozone in the present and future. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.5194/ACP-18-9861-2018.
Zhang, Junxi, Gao, Yang, Luo, Kun, Leung, L. Ruby, Zhang, Yang, Wang, Kai, & Fan, Jianren. Impacts of compound extreme weather events on ozone in the present and future. United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/ACP-18-9861-2018
Zhang, Junxi, Gao, Yang, Luo, Kun, Leung, L. Ruby, Zhang, Yang, Wang, Kai, and Fan, Jianren. Fri . "Impacts of compound extreme weather events on ozone in the present and future". United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/ACP-18-9861-2018. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1463340.
@article{osti_1463340,
title = {Impacts of compound extreme weather events on ozone in the present and future},
author = {Zhang, Junxi and Gao, Yang and Luo, Kun and Leung, L. Ruby and Zhang, Yang and Wang, Kai and Fan, Jianren},
abstractNote = {The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) was used to study the effect of extreme weather events on ozone in the US for historical (2001–2010) and future (2046–2055) periods under the RCP8.5 scenario. During extreme weather events, including heat waves, atmospheric stagnation, and their compound events, ozone concentration is much higher compared to the non-extreme events period. A striking enhancement of effect during compound events is revealed when heat wave and stagnation occur simultaneously as both high temperature and low wind speed promote the production of high ozone concentrations. In regions with high emissions, compound extreme events can shift the high-end tails of the probability density functions (PDFs) of ozone to even higher values to generate extreme ozone episodes. In regions with low emissions, extreme events can still increase high-ozone frequency but the high-end tails of the PDFs are constrained by the low emissions. Despite the large anthropogenic emission reduction projected for the future, compound events increase ozone more than the single events by 10 to 13%, comparable to the present, and high-ozone episodes with a maximum daily 8h average (MDA8) ozone concentration over 70ppbv are not eliminated. Using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, the frequency of compound events is found to increase more dominantly compared to the increased frequency of single events in the future over the US, Europe, and China. High-ozone episodes will likely continue in the future due to increases in both frequency and intensity of extreme events, despite reductions in anthropogenic emissions of its precursors. However, the latter could reduce or eliminate extreme ozone episodes; thus improving projections of compound events and their impacts on extreme ozone may better constrain future projections of extreme ozone episodes that have detrimental effects on human health.},
doi = {10.5194/ACP-18-9861-2018},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)},
number = 13,
volume = 18,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {7}
}

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