Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios
Abstract
Severe winter storms in combination with precipitation extremes pose a serious threat to Europe. Located at the southeastern exit of the North Atlantic's storm track, European coastlines are directly exposed to impacts by high wind speeds, storm floods and coastal erosion. In this study we analyze potential changes in simulated winter storminess and extreme precipitation, which may occur under 1.5 or 2°C warming scenarios. Here we focus on a first simulation suite of the atmospheric model CAM5 performed within the HAPPI project and evaluate how changes of the horizontal model resolution impact the results regarding atmospheric pressure, storm tracks, wind speed and precipitation extremes. The comparison of CAM5 simulations with different resolutions indicates that an increased horizontal resolution to 0.25° not only refines regional-scale information but also improves large-scale atmospheric circulation features over the Euro-Atlantic region. The zonal bias in monthly pressure at mean sea level and wind fields, which is typically found in low-resolution models, is considerably reduced. This allows us to analyze potential changes in regional- to local-scale extreme wind speeds and precipitation in a more realistic way. Our analysis of the future response for the 2°C warming scenario generally confirms previous model simulations suggesting a poleward shift and intensificationmore »
- Authors:
-
[3];
[5];
[7];
- Environmental Defense Fund, New York City, NY (United States)
- Environmental Defense Fund, Washington, D.C. (United States)
- Helmholtz Centre Geesthacht, Geesthacht (Germany)
- European Commission, Ispra (Italy)
- Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Global Climate Adaptation Partnership, Oxford (United Kingdom)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1462981
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Earth System Dynamics (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Earth System Dynamics (Online); Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 2; Related Information: © 2018 Author(s).; Journal ID: ISSN 2190-4987
- Publisher:
- European Geosciences Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Barcikowska, Monika J., Weaver, Scott J., Feser, Frauke, Russo, Simone, Schenk, Frederik, Stone, Daithi A., Wehner, Michael F., and Zahn, Matthias. Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.5194/esd-9-679-2018.
Barcikowska, Monika J., Weaver, Scott J., Feser, Frauke, Russo, Simone, Schenk, Frederik, Stone, Daithi A., Wehner, Michael F., & Zahn, Matthias. Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios. United States. doi:10.5194/esd-9-679-2018.
Barcikowska, Monika J., Weaver, Scott J., Feser, Frauke, Russo, Simone, Schenk, Frederik, Stone, Daithi A., Wehner, Michael F., and Zahn, Matthias. Tue .
"Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios". United States. doi:10.5194/esd-9-679-2018. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1462981.
@article{osti_1462981,
title = {Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios},
author = {Barcikowska, Monika J. and Weaver, Scott J. and Feser, Frauke and Russo, Simone and Schenk, Frederik and Stone, Daithi A. and Wehner, Michael F. and Zahn, Matthias},
abstractNote = {Severe winter storms in combination with precipitation extremes pose a serious threat to Europe. Located at the southeastern exit of the North Atlantic's storm track, European coastlines are directly exposed to impacts by high wind speeds, storm floods and coastal erosion. In this study we analyze potential changes in simulated winter storminess and extreme precipitation, which may occur under 1.5 or 2°C warming scenarios. Here we focus on a first simulation suite of the atmospheric model CAM5 performed within the HAPPI project and evaluate how changes of the horizontal model resolution impact the results regarding atmospheric pressure, storm tracks, wind speed and precipitation extremes. The comparison of CAM5 simulations with different resolutions indicates that an increased horizontal resolution to 0.25° not only refines regional-scale information but also improves large-scale atmospheric circulation features over the Euro-Atlantic region. The zonal bias in monthly pressure at mean sea level and wind fields, which is typically found in low-resolution models, is considerably reduced. This allows us to analyze potential changes in regional- to local-scale extreme wind speeds and precipitation in a more realistic way. Our analysis of the future response for the 2°C warming scenario generally confirms previous model simulations suggesting a poleward shift and intensification of the meridional circulation in the Euro-Atlantic region. Additional analysis suggests that this shift occurs mainly after exceeding the 1.5°C global warming level, when the midlatitude jet stream manifests a strengthening northeastward. At the same time, this northeastern shift of the storm tracks allows an intensification and northeastern expansion of the Azores high, leading to a tendency of less precipitation across the Bay of Biscay and North Sea. Here, regions impacted by the strengthening of the midlatitude jet, such as the northwestern coasts of the British Isles, Scandinavia and the Norwegian Sea, and over the North Atlantic east of Newfoundland, experience an increase in the mean as well as daily and sub-daily precipitation, wind extremes and storminess, suggesting an important influence of increasing storm activity in these regions in response to global warming.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-9-679-2018},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics (Online)},
number = 2,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {6}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Cited by: 6 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
Changes in storm tracks and energy transports in a warmer climate simulated by the GFDL CM2.1 model
journal, March 2010
- Wu, Yutian; Ting, Mingfang; Seager, Richard
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 37, Issue 1-2
Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region
journal, September 2008
- Giorgi, Filippo; Lionello, Piero
- Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 63, Issue 2-3
Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming
journal, July 2015
- Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim; Frieler, Katja
- Climatic Change, Vol. 132, Issue 4
Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble
journal, January 2012
- Stahl, K.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Hannaford, J.
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 16, Issue 7
Statistical uncertainty of changes in winter storms over the North Atlantic and Europe in an ensemble of transient climate simulations
journal, January 2009
- Della-Marta, Paul M.; Pinto, Joaquim G.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 14
Assessment of three wind reanalyses in the North Atlantic Ocean
journal, November 2016
- Campos, Ricardo Martins; Guedes Soares, Carlos
- Journal of Operational Oceanography, Vol. 10, Issue 1
Impact of large-scale circulation changes in the North Atlantic sector on the current and future Mediterranean winter hydroclimate
journal, June 2017
- Barcikowska, Monika J.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Feser, Frauke
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 50, Issue 5-6
Detailed assessment of climate variability in the Baltic Sea area for the period 1958 to 2009
journal, March 2011
- Lehmann, A.; Getzlaff, K.; Harlaß, J.
- Climate Research, Vol. 46, Issue 2
Analysis of frequency and intensity of European winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales
journal, June 2006
- Leckebusch, Gc; Koffi, B.; Ulbrich, U.
- Climate Research, Vol. 31
Assessment of winter cyclone activity in a transient ECHAM4-OPYC3 GHG experiment [Assessment of winter cyclone activity in a transient ECHAM4-OPYC3 GHG experiment]
journal, July 2006
- Pinto, Joaquim G.; Spangehl, Thomas; Ulbrich, Uwe
- Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 15, Issue 3
Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes
journal, December 2014
- Fischer, E. M.; Sedláček, J.; Hawkins, E.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 23
Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths in transient enhanced greenhouse warming simulations using two coupled climate models
journal, September 2004
- Lambert, Steven J.
- Atmosphere-Ocean, Vol. 42, Issue 3
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
journal, April 2012
- Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4
Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change
journal, August 2016
- Shaw, T. A.; Baldwin, M.; Barnes, E. A.
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 9, Issue 9
A consistent picture of the hydroclimatic response to global warming from multiple indices: Models and observations: hydroclimatic response to global warming
journal, October 2014
- Giorgi, F.; Coppola, E.; Raffaele, F.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 119, Issue 20
Projections of extreme precipitation events in regional climate simulations for Europe and the Alpine Region: PROJECTIONS OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION
journal, May 2013
- Rajczak, J.; Pall, P.; Schär, C.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 9
A Spatial Two-Dimensional Discrete Filter for Limited-Area-Model Evaluation Purposes
journal, June 2005
- Feser, Frauke; von Storch, Hans
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 133, Issue 6
When will trends in European mean and heavy daily precipitation emerge?
journal, January 2013
- Maraun, Douglas
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 8, Issue 1
extRemes 2.0: An Extreme Value Analysis Package in R
journal, January 2016
- Gilleland, Eric; Katz, Richard W.
- Journal of Statistical Software, Vol. 72, Issue 8
Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States
journal, January 2017
- Karmalkar, Ambarish V.; Bradley, Raymond S.
- PLOS ONE, Vol. 12, Issue 1
Resolution Dependence of Future Tropical Cyclone Projections of CAM5.1 in the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group Idealized Configurations
journal, May 2015
- Wehner, Michael; Reed, Kevin A.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 10
Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: a review
journal, January 2009
- Ulbrich, U.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Pinto, J. G.
- Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 96, Issue 1-2
Tropical and Extratropical Responses of the North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation to a Sustained Weakening of the MOC
journal, June 2009
- Brayshaw, David J.; Woollings, Tim; Vellinga, Michael
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 11
Attribution of European precipitation and temperature trends to changes in synoptic circulation
journal, January 2015
- Fleig, A. K.; Tallaksen, L. M.; James, P.
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 19, Issue 7
Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model
journal, June 2014
- Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Roberts, Nigel M.; Fowler, Hayley J.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 7
Future changes in European winter storm losses and extreme wind speeds inferred from GCM and RCM multi-model simulations
journal, January 2011
- Donat, M. G.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Wild, S.
- Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol. 11, Issue 5
Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design
journal, January 2017
- Mitchell, Daniel; AchutaRao, Krishna; Allen, Myles
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 2
Streamflow trends in Europe: evidence from a dataset of near-natural catchments
journal, January 2010
- Stahl, K.; Hisdal, H.; Hannaford, J.
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 14, Issue 12
Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols
journal, January 2018
- Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 1
Factors contributing to the development of extreme North Atlantic cyclones and their relationship with the NAO
journal, April 2008
- Pinto, Joaquim G.; Zacharias, Stefan; Fink, Andreas H.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 32, Issue 5
A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate: POLEWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACKS
journal, September 2005
- Yin, Jeffrey H.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, Issue 18
The Resolution Sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere Blocking in Four 25-km Atmospheric Global Circulation Models
journal, January 2017
- Schiemann, Reinhard; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Shaffrey, Len C.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 1
Validation of a thirty year wave hindcast using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis winds
journal, October 2013
- Chawla, Arun; Spindler, Deanna M.; Tolman, Hendrik L.
- Ocean Modelling, Vol. 70
A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target
journal, December 2015
- Knutti, Reto; Rogelj, Joeri; Sedláček, Jan
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 9, Issue 1
NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2)
journal, November 2002
- Kanamitsu, Masao; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Woollen, Jack
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 83, Issue 11
Detection of external influence on trends of atmospheric storminess and northern oceans wave heights
journal, July 2008
- Wang, Xiaolan L.; Swail, Val R.; Zwiers, Francis W.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 32, Issue 2-3
Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise
journal, January 2006
- Lambert, Steven J.; Fyfe, John C.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 26, Issue 7-8
A Multimodel Assessment of Future Projections of North Atlantic and European Extratropical Cyclones in the CMIP5 Climate Models
journal, August 2013
- Zappa, Giuseppe; Shaffrey, Len C.; Hodges, Kevin I.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 16
European climate-change oscillation (ECO)
journal, January 2007
- Giorgi, Filippo; Coppola, Erika
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 21
Variability of extreme precipitation over Europe and its relationships with teleconnection patterns
journal, January 2014
- Casanueva, A.; Rodríguez-Puebla, C.; Frías, M. D.
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 18, Issue 2
Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective
journal, September 2014
- Herring, Stephanie C.; Hoerling, Martin P.; Peterson, Thomas C.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 95, Issue 9
Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset: HADEX2-GLOBAL GRIDDED CLIMATE EXTREMES
journal, March 2013
- Donat, M. G.; Alexander, L. V.; Yang, H.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 5
The role of cyclone clustering during the stormy winter of 2013/2014
journal, July 2017
- Priestley, Matthew D. K.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Dacre, Helen F.
- Weather, Vol. 72, Issue 7
Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean–atmosphere coupling
journal, April 2012
- Woollings, T.; Gregory, J. M.; Pinto, J. G.
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 5, Issue 5
The relative contributions of radiative forcing and internal climate variability to the late 20th Century winter drying of the Mediterranean region
journal, October 2011
- Kelley, Colin; Ting, Mingfang; Seager, Richard
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 38, Issue 9-10
Hurricane Gonzalo and its Extratropical Transition to a Strong European Storm
journal, December 2015
- Feser, Frauke; Schubert-Frisius, Martina; von Storch, Hans
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, Issue 12
Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts
journal, February 2016
- Schaller, Nathalie; Kay, Alison L.; Lamb, Rob
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 6
A Comparison of Extratropical Cyclones in Recent Reanalyses ERA-Interim, NASA MERRA, NCEP CFSR, and JRA-25
journal, September 2011
- Hodges, K. I.; Lee, R. W.; Bengtsson, L.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 18
Early 21st century anthropogenic changes in extremely hot days as simulated by the C20C+ detection and attribution multi-model ensemble
journal, June 2018
- Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Shiogama, Hideo
- Weather and Climate Extremes, Vol. 20
EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research
journal, July 2013
- Jacob, Daniela; Petersen, Juliane; Eggert, Bastian
- Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 14, Issue 2
Regional modelling of the western Pacific typhoon season 2004 [Regional modelling of the western Pacific typhoon season 2004]
journal, August 2008
- Feser, Frauke; von Storch, Hans
- Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Vol. 17, Issue 4
A basis set for exploration of sensitivity to prescribed ocean conditions for estimating human contributions to extreme weather in CAM5.1-1degree
journal, March 2018
- Stone, Dáithí A.; Risser, Mark D.; Angélil, Oliver M.
- Weather and Climate Extremes, Vol. 19
IMILAST: A Community Effort to Intercompare Extratropical Cyclone Detection and Tracking Algorithms
journal, April 2013
- Neu, Urs; Akperov, Mirseid G.; Bellenbaum, Nina
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 94, Issue 4
Changes in precipitation extremes projected by a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model
journal, March 2016
- Kitoh, Akio; Endo, Hirokazu
- Weather and Climate Extremes, Vol. 11
Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster?
journal, February 2015
- Ban, Nikolina; Schmidli, Juerg; Schär, Christoph
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 4
The Ability of CMIP5 Models to Simulate North Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones
journal, August 2013
- Zappa, Giuseppe; Shaffrey, Len C.; Hodges, Kevin I.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 15
Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming
journal, January 2007
- Lu, Jian; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Reichler, Thomas
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 6
Attribution of floods in the Okavango basin, Southern Africa
journal, April 2014
- Wolski, Piotr; Stone, Dáithí; Tadross, Mark
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 511
Storminess over the North Atlantic and northwestern Europe-A review
journal, May 2014
- Feser, F.; Barcikowska, M.; Krueger, O.
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 141, Issue 687
Climatology, variability and extrema of ocean waves: the Web-based KNMI/ERA-40 wave atlas
journal, January 2005
- Sterl, Andreas; Caires, Sofia
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 25, Issue 7
Extremes of near-surface wind speed over Europe and their future changes as estimated from an ensemble of RCM simulations
journal, March 2007
- Rockel, Burkhardt; Woth, Katja
- Climatic Change, Vol. 81, Issue S1
Intercomparison of wind and wave data from the ECMWF Reanalysis Interim and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis
journal, March 2014
- Stopa, Justin E.; Cheung, Kwok Fai
- Ocean Modelling, Vol. 75
Inconsistencies between Long-Term Trends in Storminess Derived from the 20CR Reanalysis and Observations
journal, February 2013
- Krueger, Oliver; Schenk, Frederik; Feser, Frauke
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 3
Possible Change of Extratropical Cyclone Activity due to Enhanced Greenhouse Gases and Sulfate Aerosols—Study with a High-Resolution AGCM
journal, July 2003
- Geng, Quanzhen; Sugi, Masato
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 16, Issue 13
Storm Tracks and Climate Change
journal, August 2006
- Bengtsson, Lennart; Hodges, Kevin I.; Roeckner, Erich
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 15
What is the role of the observational dataset in the evaluation and scoring of climate models?
journal, December 2012
- Gómez‐Navarro, J. J.; Montávez, J. P.; Jerez, S.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 24
A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950–2006
journal, January 2008
- Haylock, M. R.; Hofstra, N.; Klein Tank, A. M. G.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, Issue D20
Seasonal Predictability of Extratropical Storm Tracks in GFDL’s High-Resolution Climate Prediction Model
journal, May 2015
- Yang, Xiaosong; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Gudgel, Rich G.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 9
Works referencing / citing this record:
Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk
journal, January 2019
- Russo, Simone; Sillmann, Jana; Sippel, Sebastian
- Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1
Half a degree and rapid socioeconomic development matter for heatwave risk
journal, January 2019
- Russo, Simone; Sillmann, Jana; Sippel, Sebastian
- Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1
Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C
journal, November 2018
- Smith, D. M.; Scaife, A. A.; Hawkins, E.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 21
On the potential impact of a half-degree warming on cold and warm temperature extremes in mid-latitude North America
journal, December 2019
- Barcikowska, Monika J.; Muñoz, Ángel G.; Weaver, Scott J.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 12
It's in your glass: a history of sea level and storminess from the Laphroaig bog, Islay (southwestern Scotland)
journal, July 2019
- Kylander, Malin E.; Söderlindh, Jenny; Schenk, Frederik
- Boreas, Vol. 49, Issue 1
Does Increasing Natural Gas Demand in the Power Sector Pose a Threat of Congestion to the German Gas Grid? A Model-Coupling Approach
journal, June 2019
- Hauser, Philipp; Heidari, Sina; Weber, Christoph
- Energies, Vol. 12, Issue 11
Combining Numerical Simulations and Normalized Scalar Product Strategy: A New Tool for Predicting Beach Inundation
journal, September 2019
- Postacchini, Matteo; Ludeno, Giovanni
- Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol. 7, Issue 9
Arctic amplification under global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C in NorESM1-Happi
journal, January 2019
- Graff, Lise S.; Iversen, Trond; Bethke, Ingo
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 10, Issue 3