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Title: Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios

Severe winter storms in combination with precipitation extremes pose a serious threat to Europe. Located at the southeastern exit of the North Atlantic's storm track, European coastlines are directly exposed to impacts by high wind speeds, storm floods and coastal erosion. In this study we analyze potential changes in simulated winter storminess and extreme precipitation, which may occur under 1.5 or 2°C warming scenarios. Here we focus on a first simulation suite of the atmospheric model CAM5 performed within the HAPPI project and evaluate how changes of the horizontal model resolution impact the results regarding atmospheric pressure, storm tracks, wind speed and precipitation extremes. The comparison of CAM5 simulations with different resolutions indicates that an increased horizontal resolution to 0.25° not only refines regional-scale information but also improves large-scale atmospheric circulation features over the Euro-Atlantic region. The zonal bias in monthly pressure at mean sea level and wind fields, which is typically found in low-resolution models, is considerably reduced. This allows us to analyze potential changes in regional- to local-scale extreme wind speeds and precipitation in a more realistic way. Our analysis of the future response for the 2°C warming scenario generally confirms previous model simulations suggesting a poleward shift and intensificationmore » of the meridional circulation in the Euro-Atlantic region. Additional analysis suggests that this shift occurs mainly after exceeding the 1.5°C global warming level, when the midlatitude jet stream manifests a strengthening northeastward. At the same time, this northeastern shift of the storm tracks allows an intensification and northeastern expansion of the Azores high, leading to a tendency of less precipitation across the Bay of Biscay and North Sea. Here, regions impacted by the strengthening of the midlatitude jet, such as the northwestern coasts of the British Isles, Scandinavia and the Norwegian Sea, and over the North Atlantic east of Newfoundland, experience an increase in the mean as well as daily and sub-daily precipitation, wind extremes and storminess, suggesting an important influence of increasing storm activity in these regions in response to global warming.« less
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2] ; ORCiD logo [3] ;  [4] ; ORCiD logo [5] ;  [6] ; ORCiD logo [7] ;  [3]
  1. Environmental Defense Fund, New York City, NY (United States)
  2. Environmental Defense Fund, Washington, D.C. (United States)
  3. Helmholtz Centre Geesthacht, Geesthacht (Germany)
  4. European Commission, Ispra (Italy)
  5. Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden)
  6. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Global Climate Adaptation Partnership, Oxford (United Kingdom)
  7. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Earth System Dynamics (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Earth System Dynamics (Online); Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 2; Related Information: © 2018 Author(s).; Journal ID: ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Research Org:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
OSTI Identifier:
1462981