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Title: Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to altered precipitation simulated by ecosystem models across three long-term grassland sites

Abstract

Field measurements of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in temperate grasslands suggest that both positive and negative asymmetric responses to changes in precipitation (P) may occur. Under normal range of precipitation variability, wet years typically result in ANPP gains being larger than ANPP declines in dry years (positive asymmetry), whereas increases in ANPP are lower in magnitude in extreme wet years compared to reductions during extreme drought (negative asymmetry). Whether the current generation of ecosystem models with a coupled carbon–water system in grasslands are capable of simulating these asymmetric ANPP responses is an unresolved question. For this study, we evaluated the simulated responses of temperate grassland primary productivity to scenarios of altered precipitation with 14 ecosystem models at three sites: Shortgrass steppe (SGS), Konza Prairie (KNZ) and Stubai Valley meadow (STU), spanning a rainfall gradient from dry to moist. We found that (1) the spatial slopes derived from modeled primary productivity and precipitation across sites were steeper than the temporal slopes obtained from inter-annual variations, which was consistent with empirical data; (2) the asymmetry of the responses of modeled primary productivity under normal inter-annual precipitation variability differed among models, and the mean of the model ensemble suggested a negative asymmetrymore » across the three sites, which was contrary to empirical evidence based on filed observations; (3) the mean sensitivity of modeled productivity to rainfall suggested greater negative response with reduced precipitation than positive response to an increased precipitation under extreme conditions at the three sites; and (4) gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) all showed concave-down nonlinear responses to altered precipitation in all the models, but with different curvatures and mean values. Our results indicated that most models overestimate the negative drought effects and/or underestimate the positive effects of increased precipitation on primary productivity under normal climate conditions, highlighting the need for improving eco-hydrological processes in those models in the future.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [3]; ORCiD logo [6];  [7]; ORCiD logo [8];  [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [9];  [10]; ORCiD logo [11]; ORCiD logo [12];  [13];  [14];  [15]; ORCiD logo [16] more »;  [5]; ORCiD logo [17]; ORCiD logo [17];  [18]; ORCiD logo [16];  [5]; ORCiD logo [19];  [19]; ORCiD logo [19];  [10];  [5];  [20];  [21];  [5];  [22];  [23];  [24]; ORCiD logo [16];  [25];  [26];  [1];  [1] « less
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Peking Univ., Beijing (China). Sino-French Inst. for Earth System Science and College of Urban and Environmental Sciences
  2. Pierre Simon Laplace Inst., CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. of Climate Sciences and Environment (LSCE)
  3. Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States). Dept. of Biology and Graduate Degree program in Ecology
  4. Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States). Dept. of Microbiology and Plant Biology
  5. Univ. of Innsbruck (Austria). Inst. of Ecology
  6. Univ. of Antwerp (Belgium). Dept. of Biology
  7. ETH Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. of Environmental Engineering
  8. ETH Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. of Atmospheric and Climate Science
  9. National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan)
  10. Karlsruhe Inst. of Technology (KIT) Garmisch-Partenkirchen (Germany)
  11. Univ. of Exeter (United Kingdom). College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences
  12. Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia). ARC Center of Excellence for Climate System Science
  13. Imperial College, London (United Kingdom). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
  14. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
  15. Univ. of Quebec, Montreal, QC (Canada). Inst. of Environment Sciences and Biology Science Dept.; Northwest A&F Univ., Yangling (China). State Key Lab. of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau
  16. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Inst.
  17. Auburn Univ., AL (United States). International Center for Climate and Global Change Research and School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences
  18. Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Inst. of Arctic Biology
  19. Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
  20. Univ. of Edinburgh, Scotland (United Kingdom). School of Geosciences; Australian National Univ., Canberra, ACT (Australia). Research School of Biology
  21. Northwest A&F Univ., Yangling (China). State Key Lab. of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau
  22. Norwegian Inst. of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO), As (Norway)
  23. Auburn Univ., AL (United States). International Center for Climate and Global Change Research and School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences; Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States)
  24. Univ. of Exeter (United Kingdom). College of Life and Environmental Sciences
  25. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Aspendale, VIC (Australia). Oceans and Atmosphere (O&A)
  26. Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States). Dept. of Microbiology and Plant Biology; Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States). Center for Ecosystem Sciences and Society and Dept. of Biological Sciences
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
Sponsoring Org.:
Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth and Environmental Systems Science Division; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC); European Research Council (ERC); European Union (EU); Austrian Science Fund (FWF); Austrian Academy of Sciences (OAW)
Contributing Org.:
Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam (Germany); Vienna Univ. of Technology (TU Wien), Vienna (Austria)
OSTI Identifier:
1462829
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725; 41530528; SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P; ES1308; 603542
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Biogeosciences (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Biogeosciences (Online); Journal Volume: 15; Journal Issue: 11; Journal ID: ISSN 1726-4189
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Wu, Donghai, Ciais, Philippe, Viovy, Nicolas, Knapp, Alan K., Wilcox, Kevin, Bahn, Michael, Smith, Melinda D., Vicca, Sara, Fatichi, Simone, Zscheischler, Jakob, He, Yue, Li, Xiangyi, Ito, Akihiko, Arneth, Almut, Harper, Anna, Ukkola, Anna, Paschalis, Athanasios, Poulter, Benjamin, Peng, Changhui, Ricciuto, Daniel, Reinthaler, David, Chen, Guangsheng, Tian, Hanqin, Genet, Helene, Mao, Jiafu, Ingrisch, Johannes, Nabel, Julia E. S. M., Pongratz, Julia, Boysen, Lena R., Kautz, Markus, Schmitt, Michael, Meir, Patrick, Zhu, Qiuan, Hasibeder, Roland, Sippel, Sebastian, Dangal, Shree R. S., Sitch, Stephen, Shi, Xiaoying, Wang, Yingping, Luo, Yiqi, Liu, Yongwen, and Piao, Shilong. Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to altered precipitation simulated by ecosystem models across three long-term grassland sites. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018.
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Wu, Donghai, Ciais, Philippe, Viovy, Nicolas, Knapp, Alan K., Wilcox, Kevin, Bahn, Michael, Smith, Melinda D., Vicca, Sara, Fatichi, Simone, Zscheischler, Jakob, He, Yue, Li, Xiangyi, Ito, Akihiko, Arneth, Almut, Harper, Anna, Ukkola, Anna, Paschalis, Athanasios, Poulter, Benjamin, Peng, Changhui, Ricciuto, Daniel, Reinthaler, David, Chen, Guangsheng, Tian, Hanqin, Genet, Helene, Mao, Jiafu, Ingrisch, Johannes, Nabel, Julia E. S. M., Pongratz, Julia, Boysen, Lena R., Kautz, Markus, Schmitt, Michael, Meir, Patrick, Zhu, Qiuan, Hasibeder, Roland, Sippel, Sebastian, Dangal, Shree R. S., Sitch, Stephen, Shi, Xiaoying, Wang, Yingping, Luo, Yiqi, Liu, Yongwen, & Piao, Shilong. Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to altered precipitation simulated by ecosystem models across three long-term grassland sites. United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018
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Wu, Donghai, Ciais, Philippe, Viovy, Nicolas, Knapp, Alan K., Wilcox, Kevin, Bahn, Michael, Smith, Melinda D., Vicca, Sara, Fatichi, Simone, Zscheischler, Jakob, He, Yue, Li, Xiangyi, Ito, Akihiko, Arneth, Almut, Harper, Anna, Ukkola, Anna, Paschalis, Athanasios, Poulter, Benjamin, Peng, Changhui, Ricciuto, Daniel, Reinthaler, David, Chen, Guangsheng, Tian, Hanqin, Genet, Helene, Mao, Jiafu, Ingrisch, Johannes, Nabel, Julia E. S. M., Pongratz, Julia, Boysen, Lena R., Kautz, Markus, Schmitt, Michael, Meir, Patrick, Zhu, Qiuan, Hasibeder, Roland, Sippel, Sebastian, Dangal, Shree R. S., Sitch, Stephen, Shi, Xiaoying, Wang, Yingping, Luo, Yiqi, Liu, Yongwen, and Piao, Shilong. Mon . "Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to altered precipitation simulated by ecosystem models across three long-term grassland sites". United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1462829.
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@article{osti_1462829,
title = {Asymmetric responses of primary productivity to altered precipitation simulated by ecosystem models across three long-term grassland sites},
author = {Wu, Donghai and Ciais, Philippe and Viovy, Nicolas and Knapp, Alan K. and Wilcox, Kevin and Bahn, Michael and Smith, Melinda D. and Vicca, Sara and Fatichi, Simone and Zscheischler, Jakob and He, Yue and Li, Xiangyi and Ito, Akihiko and Arneth, Almut and Harper, Anna and Ukkola, Anna and Paschalis, Athanasios and Poulter, Benjamin and Peng, Changhui and Ricciuto, Daniel and Reinthaler, David and Chen, Guangsheng and Tian, Hanqin and Genet, Helene and Mao, Jiafu and Ingrisch, Johannes and Nabel, Julia E. S. M. and Pongratz, Julia and Boysen, Lena R. and Kautz, Markus and Schmitt, Michael and Meir, Patrick and Zhu, Qiuan and Hasibeder, Roland and Sippel, Sebastian and Dangal, Shree R. S. and Sitch, Stephen and Shi, Xiaoying and Wang, Yingping and Luo, Yiqi and Liu, Yongwen and Piao, Shilong},
abstractNote = {Field measurements of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in temperate grasslands suggest that both positive and negative asymmetric responses to changes in precipitation (P) may occur. Under normal range of precipitation variability, wet years typically result in ANPP gains being larger than ANPP declines in dry years (positive asymmetry), whereas increases in ANPP are lower in magnitude in extreme wet years compared to reductions during extreme drought (negative asymmetry). Whether the current generation of ecosystem models with a coupled carbon–water system in grasslands are capable of simulating these asymmetric ANPP responses is an unresolved question. For this study, we evaluated the simulated responses of temperate grassland primary productivity to scenarios of altered precipitation with 14 ecosystem models at three sites: Shortgrass steppe (SGS), Konza Prairie (KNZ) and Stubai Valley meadow (STU), spanning a rainfall gradient from dry to moist. We found that (1) the spatial slopes derived from modeled primary productivity and precipitation across sites were steeper than the temporal slopes obtained from inter-annual variations, which was consistent with empirical data; (2) the asymmetry of the responses of modeled primary productivity under normal inter-annual precipitation variability differed among models, and the mean of the model ensemble suggested a negative asymmetry across the three sites, which was contrary to empirical evidence based on filed observations; (3) the mean sensitivity of modeled productivity to rainfall suggested greater negative response with reduced precipitation than positive response to an increased precipitation under extreme conditions at the three sites; and (4) gross primary productivity (GPP), net primary productivity (NPP), aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) all showed concave-down nonlinear responses to altered precipitation in all the models, but with different curvatures and mean values. Our results indicated that most models overestimate the negative drought effects and/or underestimate the positive effects of increased precipitation on primary productivity under normal climate conditions, highlighting the need for improving eco-hydrological processes in those models in the future.},
doi = {10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018},
journal = {Biogeosciences (Online)},
number = 11,
volume = 15,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Jun 11 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Mon Jun 11 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
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  • Huxman, Travis E.; Smith, Melinda D.; Fay, Philip A.
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  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1712381114

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journal, December 2017

  • Karlowsky, Stefan; Augusti, Angela; Ingrisch, Johannes
  • Journal of Ecology, Vol. 106, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.12910

Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: recommendations for simulating wet and dry years
journal, November 2016

  • Knapp, Alan K.; Avolio, Meghan L.; Beier, Claus
  • Global Change Biology, Vol. 23, Issue 5
  • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13504

Urgent need for a common metric to make precipitation manipulation experiments comparable: Letters
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Terrestrial Gross Carbon Dioxide Uptake: Global Distribution and Covariation with Climate
journal, July 2010

The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 2: Carbon fluxes and vegetation dynamics
journal, January 2011

  • Clark, D. B.; Mercado, L. M.; Sitch, S.
  • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 4, Issue 3
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The North American Carbon Program Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project – Part 2: Environmental driver data
journal, January 2013

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  • Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, Vol. 6, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.5194/gmdd-6-5375-2013
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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Semiarid ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes: weak evidence for vegetation constraints
    journal, January 2019

    • Felton, Andrew J.; Zavislan‐Pullaro, Sam; Smith, Melinda D.
    • Ecology, Vol. 100, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1002/ecy.2572

    Asymmetric responses of plant community structure and composition to precipitation variabilities in a semi-arid steppe
    journal, October 2019

    Drought, Heat, and the Carbon Cycle: a Review
    journal, June 2018

    • Sippel, Sebastian; Reichstein, Markus; Ma, Xuanlong
    • Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 4, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.1007/s40641-018-0103-4

    More green and less blue water in the Alps during warmer summers
    journal, January 2020

    • Mastrotheodoros, Theodoros; Pappas, Christoforos; Molnar, Peter
    • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 10, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0676-5

    Global divergent responses of primary productivity to water, energy, and CO 2
    journal, December 2019

    • Liu, Zhiyong; Chen, Lei; Smith, Nicholas G.
    • Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 12
    • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab57c5

    Spatiotemporal Variability in Extreme Precipitation in China from Observations and Projections
    journal, August 2018

    • Peng, Yifeng; Zhao, Xiang; Wu, Donghai
    • Water, Vol. 10, Issue 8
    • DOI: 10.3390/w10081089

    Leaf area index identified as a major source of variability in modeled CO2 fertilization
    journal, January 2018

    Drought, Heat, and the Carbon Cycle: a Review
    text, January 2018

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