skip to main content

DOE PAGESDOE PAGES

This content will become publicly available on July 11, 2019

Title: Optimizing Nuclear Material Accounting and Measurement Systems

The ability to create nuclear weapons from 235U and 239Pu makes it imperative to closely account for these materials as they progress through a nuclear fuel cycle. Improved measurement systems provide more accurate estimates of material quantities and material unaccounted for (MUF). This work provides examples of how two safeguards computational toolboxes can optimize and analyze hypothetical nuclear fuel cycle scenarios. The NUclear Measurement System Optimization (NUMSO) toolbox uses operations research techniques to find optimal solutions to safeguards measurement problems based on minimizing the variance of the estimated MUF. The SafeGuards Analysis (SGA) toolbox employs Monte Carlo techniques to analyze a given configuration of measurement methods and material flows to determine the probabilities of Type I (false detection) and Type II (missed detection) errors. Applying these toolboxes to a realistic fuel cycle scenario demonstrates the capability of NUMSO and SGA to address nuclear safeguards problems. Working in tandem, both toolboxes are able to determine how to quickly improve upon an existing safeguards measurement system and to calculate the resulting improvement in the error probabilities of the system. This information shows engineers not only how to develop new measurement systems but also how to improve existing systems in the most efficientmore » manner.« less
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2] ; ORCiD logo [1] ;  [2]
  1. Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States). Nuclear Science and Engineering Program
  2. Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States). Operations Research with Engineering Program
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
NA0001730
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Nuclear Technology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 0; Journal Issue: 0; Journal ID: ISSN 0029-5450
Publisher:
Taylor & Francis - formerly American Nuclear Society (ANS)
Research Org:
Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Office of Nonproliferation and Verification Research and Development (NA-22)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS; 98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION; Safeguards; uncertainty analysis; measurement optimization
OSTI Identifier:
1461843

Shugart, Nicolas, Johnson, Benjamin, King, Jeffrey, and Newman, Alexandra. Optimizing Nuclear Material Accounting and Measurement Systems. United States: N. p., Web. doi:10.1080/00295450.2018.1478056.
Shugart, Nicolas, Johnson, Benjamin, King, Jeffrey, & Newman, Alexandra. Optimizing Nuclear Material Accounting and Measurement Systems. United States. doi:10.1080/00295450.2018.1478056.
Shugart, Nicolas, Johnson, Benjamin, King, Jeffrey, and Newman, Alexandra. 2018. "Optimizing Nuclear Material Accounting and Measurement Systems". United States. doi:10.1080/00295450.2018.1478056.
@article{osti_1461843,
title = {Optimizing Nuclear Material Accounting and Measurement Systems},
author = {Shugart, Nicolas and Johnson, Benjamin and King, Jeffrey and Newman, Alexandra},
abstractNote = {The ability to create nuclear weapons from 235U and 239Pu makes it imperative to closely account for these materials as they progress through a nuclear fuel cycle. Improved measurement systems provide more accurate estimates of material quantities and material unaccounted for (MUF). This work provides examples of how two safeguards computational toolboxes can optimize and analyze hypothetical nuclear fuel cycle scenarios. The NUclear Measurement System Optimization (NUMSO) toolbox uses operations research techniques to find optimal solutions to safeguards measurement problems based on minimizing the variance of the estimated MUF. The SafeGuards Analysis (SGA) toolbox employs Monte Carlo techniques to analyze a given configuration of measurement methods and material flows to determine the probabilities of Type I (false detection) and Type II (missed detection) errors. Applying these toolboxes to a realistic fuel cycle scenario demonstrates the capability of NUMSO and SGA to address nuclear safeguards problems. Working in tandem, both toolboxes are able to determine how to quickly improve upon an existing safeguards measurement system and to calculate the resulting improvement in the error probabilities of the system. This information shows engineers not only how to develop new measurement systems but also how to improve existing systems in the most efficient manner.},
doi = {10.1080/00295450.2018.1478056},
journal = {Nuclear Technology},
number = 0,
volume = 0,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {7}
}