Optimally configuring a measurement system to detect diversions from a nuclear fuel cycle
The civilian nuclear fuel cycle is an industrial process that produces electrical power from the nuclear fission of uranium. Using a measurement system to accurately account for nuclear material, such as uranium, in a fuel cycle is important because of the possible loss or diversion of this potentially dangerous material. A measurement system is defined by a set of measurement methods, or “devices,” used to account for material flows and inventory values at specific locations in the fuel cycle. Here, we develop a simulationoptimization algorithm and an integerprogramming model to find the best, or nearbest, resourcelimited measurement system with a high degree of confidence. The simulationoptimization algorithm minimizes a weighted sum of false positive and false negative diversiondetection probabilities while accounting for material quantities and measurement errors across a finite, discrete time horizon in hypothetical nondiversion and diversion contexts. In each time period, the estimated cumulative material unaccounted for is compared to a fixed or an optimized threshold value to assess if a “significant amount of material” is lost from a measurement system. The integerprogramming model minimizes the population variance of the estimated material loss, i.e., material unaccounted for, in a measurement system. We analyze three potential problems in nuclearmore »
 Authors:

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 Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States). Operations Research with Engineering Program
 Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States). Dept. of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
 Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States). Nuclear Engineering Program
 Publication Date:
 Grant/Contract Number:
 NA0001730
 Type:
 Accepted Manuscript
 Journal Name:
 Annals of Operations Research
 Additional Journal Information:
 Journal Name: Annals of Operations Research; Journal ID: ISSN 02545330
 Research Org:
 Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States)
 Sponsoring Org:
 USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
 Country of Publication:
 United States
 Language:
 English
 Subject:
 11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS; 98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION; Integer programming; Simulation optimization; Resource allocation; Nuclear safeguards
 OSTI Identifier:
 1461841
Johnson, Benjamin L., Porter, Aaron T., King, Jeffrey C., and Newman, Alexandra M.. Optimally configuring a measurement system to detect diversions from a nuclear fuel cycle. United States: N. p.,
Web. doi:10.1007/s104790182940x.
Johnson, Benjamin L., Porter, Aaron T., King, Jeffrey C., & Newman, Alexandra M.. Optimally configuring a measurement system to detect diversions from a nuclear fuel cycle. United States. doi:10.1007/s104790182940x.
Johnson, Benjamin L., Porter, Aaron T., King, Jeffrey C., and Newman, Alexandra M.. 2018.
"Optimally configuring a measurement system to detect diversions from a nuclear fuel cycle". United States.
doi:10.1007/s104790182940x.
@article{osti_1461841,
title = {Optimally configuring a measurement system to detect diversions from a nuclear fuel cycle},
author = {Johnson, Benjamin L. and Porter, Aaron T. and King, Jeffrey C. and Newman, Alexandra M.},
abstractNote = {The civilian nuclear fuel cycle is an industrial process that produces electrical power from the nuclear fission of uranium. Using a measurement system to accurately account for nuclear material, such as uranium, in a fuel cycle is important because of the possible loss or diversion of this potentially dangerous material. A measurement system is defined by a set of measurement methods, or “devices,” used to account for material flows and inventory values at specific locations in the fuel cycle. Here, we develop a simulationoptimization algorithm and an integerprogramming model to find the best, or nearbest, resourcelimited measurement system with a high degree of confidence. The simulationoptimization algorithm minimizes a weighted sum of false positive and false negative diversiondetection probabilities while accounting for material quantities and measurement errors across a finite, discrete time horizon in hypothetical nondiversion and diversion contexts. In each time period, the estimated cumulative material unaccounted for is compared to a fixed or an optimized threshold value to assess if a “significant amount of material” is lost from a measurement system. The integerprogramming model minimizes the population variance of the estimated material loss, i.e., material unaccounted for, in a measurement system. We analyze three potential problems in nuclear fuel cycle measurement systems: (i) given locationdependent device precisions, find the configuration of n devices at n locations (n = 3) that gives the lowest corresponding objective values using the simulationoptimization algorithm and integerprogramming model, (ii) find the location at which improving device precision reduces objective values the most using the simulationoptimization algorithm, and determine the effect of measurement frequency on measurement system configurations and objective values using the simulationoptimization algorithm. We obtain comparable results for each problem at least an order of magnitude faster than existing methods do. Using an optimized, rather than fixed, detection threshold in the simulationoptimization algorithm reduces the weighted sum of false positive and false negative probabilities.},
doi = {10.1007/s104790182940x},
journal = {Annals of Operations Research},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {6}
}