Characteristics of Bay of Bengal Monsoon Depressions in the 21st Century

Rastogi, Deeksha; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Leung, L. Ruby; Ghosh, Subimal; Saha, Anamitra; Hodges, Kevin; Evans, Katherine J.

doi:10.1029/2018GL078756

Title: Characteristics of Bay of Bengal Monsoon Depressions in the 21st Century

Abstract

Abstract We show that 21st century increase in radiative forcing does not significantly impact the frequency of South Asian summer monsoon depressions (MDs) or their trajectories in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 general circulation models (GCMs). A significant relationship exists between the climatological occurrences of MDs and the strength of the background upper (lower) tropospheric meridional (zonal) winds and tropospheric moisture in the core genesis region of MDs. Likewise, there is a strong relationship between the strength of the meridional tropospheric temperature gradient in the GCMs and the trajectories of MDs over land. While monsoon dynamics progressively weakens in the future, atmospheric moisture exhibits a strong increase, limiting the impact of changes in dynamics on the frequency of MDs. Moreover, the weakening of meridional tropospheric temperature gradient in the future is substantially weaker than its inherent underestimation in the GCMs. Our results also indicate that future increases in the extreme wet events are dominated by nondepression day occurrences, which may render the monsoon extremes less predictable in the future.

Authors:

^[1];

^[2];

^[3]; Saha, Anamitra ^[3]; Hodges, Kevin ^[4];

^[1]

Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai (India)
Univ. of Reading, Reading (United Kingdom)

Publication Date:: Thu Jun 21 00:00:00 EDT 2018

Research Org.:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

OSTI Identifier:: 1474867

Alternate Identifier(s):: OSTI ID: 1459445

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725; DE‐AC05‐76RL01830; DE‐AC05‐00OR22725

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Geophysical Research Letters

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 45; Journal Issue: 13; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; monsoon depression; climate change; South Asian monsoon

Citation Formats


                    Rastogi, Deeksha, Ashfaq, Moetasim, Leung, L. Ruby, Ghosh, Subimal, Saha, Anamitra, Hodges, Kevin, and Evans, Katherine J. Characteristics of Bay of Bengal Monsoon Depressions in the 21st Century.  United States: N. p., 2018. 
Web.  doi:10.1029/2018GL078756.

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                    Rastogi, Deeksha, Ashfaq, Moetasim, Leung, L. Ruby, Ghosh, Subimal, Saha, Anamitra, Hodges, Kevin, & Evans, Katherine J. Characteristics of Bay of Bengal Monsoon Depressions in the 21st Century.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078756

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                    Rastogi, Deeksha, Ashfaq, Moetasim, Leung, L. Ruby, Ghosh, Subimal, Saha, Anamitra, Hodges, Kevin, and Evans, Katherine J. Thu .  
"Characteristics of Bay of Bengal Monsoon Depressions in the 21st Century".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078756.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1474867.

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@article{osti_1474867,

  title        = {Characteristics of Bay of Bengal Monsoon Depressions in the 21st Century},

  author       = {Rastogi, Deeksha and Ashfaq, Moetasim and Leung, L. Ruby and Ghosh, Subimal and Saha, Anamitra and Hodges, Kevin and Evans, Katherine J.},

  abstractNote = {Abstract We show that 21st century increase in radiative forcing does not significantly impact the frequency of South Asian summer monsoon depressions (MDs) or their trajectories in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 general circulation models (GCMs). A significant relationship exists between the climatological occurrences of MDs and the strength of the background upper (lower) tropospheric meridional (zonal) winds and tropospheric moisture in the core genesis region of MDs. Likewise, there is a strong relationship between the strength of the meridional tropospheric temperature gradient in the GCMs and the trajectories of MDs over land. While monsoon dynamics progressively weakens in the future, atmospheric moisture exhibits a strong increase, limiting the impact of changes in dynamics on the frequency of MDs. Moreover, the weakening of meridional tropospheric temperature gradient in the future is substantially weaker than its inherent underestimation in the GCMs. Our results also indicate that future increases in the extreme wet events are dominated by nondepression day occurrences, which may render the monsoon extremes less predictable in the future.},

  doi          = {10.1029/2018GL078756},

  journal      = {Geophysical Research Letters},

  number       = 13,

  volume       = 45,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Thu Jun 21 00:00:00 EDT 2018},

  month        = {Thu Jun 21 00:00:00 EDT 2018}

}

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https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078756

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Figure 1: Characteristics of monsoon depressions (MDs) in the historical period. (a) Individual trajectories of MDs in National Centers for Environmental Prediction R1, (b) ERA-Interim, and (c) Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications 2. The green stars represent the starting point of each MD, and the colored circles representmore »

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Works referencing / citing this record:

Regional Climate Response of Middle Eastern, African, and South Asian Monsoon Regions to Explosive Volcanism and ENSO Forcing
journal, July 2019

Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Sato, Tomonori
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 124, Issue 14
DOI: 10.1029/2019jd030358

Tropical Lows in Southern Africa: Tracks, Rainfall Contributions, and the Role of ENSO
journal, November 2019

Howard, Emma; Washington, Richard; Hodges, Kevin I.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 124, Issue 21
DOI: 10.1029/2019jd030803

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Title: Characteristics of Bay of Bengal Monsoon Depressions in the 21st Century

Abstract

Citation Formats

Figures / Tables:

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