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Title: Long-term implications of sustained wind power growth in the United States: Potential benefits and secondary impacts

Here, we model scenarios of the U.S. electric sector in which wind generation reaches 10% of end-use electricity demand in 2020, 20% in 2030, and 35% in 2050. As shown in a companion paper, achieving these penetration levels would have significant implications for the wind industry and the broader electric sector. Compared to a baseline that assumes no new wind deployment, under the primary scenario modeled, achieving these penetrations imposes an incremental cost to electricity consumers of less than 1% through 2030. These cost implications, however, should be balanced against the variety of environmental and social implications of such a scenario. Relative to a baseline that assumes no new wind deployment, our analysis shows that the high-penetration wind scenario yields potential greenhouse-gas benefits of 85–1,230 billion USD in present-value terms, with a central estimate of 400 billion USD. Air-pollution-related health benefits are estimated at 52–272 billion USD, while annual electric-sector water withdrawals and consumption are lower by 15% and 23% in 2050, respectively. We also find that a high-wind-energy future would have implications for the diversity and risk of energy supply, local economic development, and land use and related local impacts on communities and ecosystems; however, these additional impacts maymore » not greatly affect aggregate social welfare owing to their nature, in part, as resource transfers.« less
Authors:
 [1] ;  [1] ;  [2] ;  [2] ;  [2] ;  [2] ;  [2] ;  [1]
  1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  2. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Report Number(s):
NREL/JA-6A20-64321
Journal ID: ISSN 0306-2619; ark:/13030/qt41t0p81t
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231; AC36-08GO28308
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Applied Energy
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 179; Journal Issue: C; Related Information: © 2016 Elsevier Ltd; Journal ID: ISSN 0306-2619
Publisher:
Elsevier
Research Org:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Water Power Technologies Office (EE-4WP); USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Wind Energy Technologies Office (EE-4WE)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
17 WIND ENERGY; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; Wind energy; Co-benefits; Greenhouse gases; Air pollution; Water use
OSTI Identifier:
1459374
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1399816