Synthesis and Review: an inter-method comparison of climate change impacts on agriculture
Abstract
The agricultural sector is one of the most sensitive to climate change, with potentially significant implications for food security and welfare. Alternative methodological approaches—such as process models, statistical models and integrated assessment models—have been used to estimate climate impacts on agriculture, not always with consistent results. This focus issue intends to shed light on the sign and order of magnitude of agricultural impacts under 2 °C and higher warming levels. This letter synthesizes the set of articles in the focus issue that have been tasked with providing a systematic assessment of how results from these different methodological approaches compare and why they are different. From this synthesis, we offer thoughts on research priorities going forward to fill key voids in the literature on this important topic.
- Authors:
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Stanford Univ., CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1457199
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1509885
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0005171
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Volume: 13 Journal Issue: 7; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
- Publisher:
- IOP Publishing
- Country of Publication:
- United Kingdom
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; agriculture climate impacts; process models; statistical models; integrated assessment models; carbon fertilization; climate adaptation; inter-method comparison
Citation Formats
Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, Fisher-Vanden, Karen, and Lobell, David B. Synthesis and Review: an inter-method comparison of climate change impacts on agriculture. United Kingdom: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aac7cb.
Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, Fisher-Vanden, Karen, & Lobell, David B. Synthesis and Review: an inter-method comparison of climate change impacts on agriculture. United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac7cb
Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, Fisher-Vanden, Karen, and Lobell, David B. Tue .
"Synthesis and Review: an inter-method comparison of climate change impacts on agriculture". United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac7cb.
@article{osti_1457199,
title = {Synthesis and Review: an inter-method comparison of climate change impacts on agriculture},
author = {Ciscar, Juan-Carlos and Fisher-Vanden, Karen and Lobell, David B.},
abstractNote = {The agricultural sector is one of the most sensitive to climate change, with potentially significant implications for food security and welfare. Alternative methodological approaches—such as process models, statistical models and integrated assessment models—have been used to estimate climate impacts on agriculture, not always with consistent results. This focus issue intends to shed light on the sign and order of magnitude of agricultural impacts under 2 °C and higher warming levels. This letter synthesizes the set of articles in the focus issue that have been tasked with providing a systematic assessment of how results from these different methodological approaches compare and why they are different. From this synthesis, we offer thoughts on research priorities going forward to fill key voids in the literature on this important topic.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aac7cb},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 7,
volume = 13,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {Tue Jun 26 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Tue Jun 26 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac7cb
Web of Science
Figures / Tables:
Works referenced in this record:
An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models
journal, November 2017
- Ruane, Alex C.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Asseng, Senthold
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 12
Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: a comparison of process-based and statistical yield models
journal, May 2017
- Moore, Frances C.; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Hertel, Thomas
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 6
Comparing and combining process-based crop models and statistical models with some implications for climate change
journal, September 2017
- Roberts, Michael J.; Braun, Noah O.; Sinclair, Thomas R.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 9
Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison
journal, December 2013
- Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies
journal, March 2013
- Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.
- Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 170
Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks
journal, December 2013
- Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change
journal, August 2009
- Schlenker, Wolfram; Roberts, Michael J.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 37
Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison
journal, October 2017
- Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 11
Simulated vs. empirical weather responsiveness of crop yields: US evidence and implications for the agricultural impacts of climate change
journal, July 2017
- Mistry, Malcolm N.; Sue Wing, Ian; De Cian, Enrica
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 7
The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030
journal, October 2010
- Hertel, Thomas W.; Burke, Marshall B.; Lobell, David B.
- Global Environmental Change, Vol. 20, Issue 4
Works referencing / citing this record:
Effects of elevated carbon dioxide on metal transport in soil-crop system: results from a field rice and wheat experiment
journal, April 2019
- Luo, Xiao-San; Zhang, Dan; Hu, Zhenghua
- Journal of Soils and Sediments, Vol. 19, Issue 11
Climate impacts on long-term silage maize yield in Germany
journal, May 2019
- Peichl, Michael; Thober, Stephan; Samaniego, Luis
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, Issue 1