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Title: Synthesis and Review: an inter-method comparison of climate change impacts on agriculture

Abstract

The agricultural sector is one of the most sensitive to climate change, with potentially significant implications for food security and welfare. Alternative methodological approaches—such as process models, statistical models and integrated assessment models—have been used to estimate climate impacts on agriculture, not always with consistent results. This focus issue intends to shed light on the sign and order of magnitude of agricultural impacts under 2 °C and higher warming levels. This letter synthesizes the set of articles in the focus issue that have been tasked with providing a systematic assessment of how results from these different methodological approaches compare and why they are different. From this synthesis, we offer thoughts on research priorities going forward to fill key voids in the literature on this important topic.

Authors:
ORCiD logo; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Stanford Univ., CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
OSTI Identifier:
1457199
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1509885
Grant/Contract Number:  
SC0005171
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Volume: 13 Journal Issue: 7; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Country of Publication:
United Kingdom
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; agriculture climate impacts; process models; statistical models; integrated assessment models; carbon fertilization; climate adaptation; inter-method comparison

Citation Formats

Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, Fisher-Vanden, Karen, and Lobell, David B. Synthesis and Review: an inter-method comparison of climate change impacts on agriculture. United Kingdom: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aac7cb.
Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, Fisher-Vanden, Karen, & Lobell, David B. Synthesis and Review: an inter-method comparison of climate change impacts on agriculture. United Kingdom. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aac7cb.
Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, Fisher-Vanden, Karen, and Lobell, David B. Tue . "Synthesis and Review: an inter-method comparison of climate change impacts on agriculture". United Kingdom. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aac7cb.
@article{osti_1457199,
title = {Synthesis and Review: an inter-method comparison of climate change impacts on agriculture},
author = {Ciscar, Juan-Carlos and Fisher-Vanden, Karen and Lobell, David B.},
abstractNote = {The agricultural sector is one of the most sensitive to climate change, with potentially significant implications for food security and welfare. Alternative methodological approaches—such as process models, statistical models and integrated assessment models—have been used to estimate climate impacts on agriculture, not always with consistent results. This focus issue intends to shed light on the sign and order of magnitude of agricultural impacts under 2 °C and higher warming levels. This letter synthesizes the set of articles in the focus issue that have been tasked with providing a systematic assessment of how results from these different methodological approaches compare and why they are different. From this synthesis, we offer thoughts on research priorities going forward to fill key voids in the literature on this important topic.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aac7cb},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 7,
volume = 13,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {2018},
month = {6}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aac7cb

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 2 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Figures / Tables:

Table 1. Table 1.: Overview of the focus issue articles.

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Works referenced in this record:

An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models
journal, November 2017

  • Ruane, Alex C.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Asseng, Senthold
  • Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 12
  • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa8da6

Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: a comparison of process-based and statistical yield models
journal, May 2017

  • Moore, Frances C.; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Hertel, Thomas
  • Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa6eb2

Comparing and combining process-based crop models and statistical models with some implications for climate change
journal, September 2017

  • Roberts, Michael J.; Braun, Noah O.; Sinclair, Thomas R.
  • Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7f33

Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison
journal, December 2013

  • Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222463110

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and pilot studies
journal, March 2013


Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks
journal, December 2013

  • Nelson, Gerald C.; Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald D.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222465110

Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change
journal, August 2009

  • Schlenker, Wolfram; Roberts, Michael J.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 37
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0906865106

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison
journal, October 2017


Simulated vs. empirical weather responsiveness of crop yields: US evidence and implications for the agricultural impacts of climate change
journal, July 2017

  • Mistry, Malcolm N.; Sue Wing, Ian; De Cian, Enrica
  • Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 7
  • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa788c

The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030
journal, October 2010


    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Effects of elevated carbon dioxide on metal transport in soil-crop system: results from a field rice and wheat experiment
    journal, April 2019


    Climate impacts on long-term silage maize yield in Germany
    journal, May 2019


      Figures / Tables found in this record:

        Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.