Long term load forecasting accuracy in electric utility integrated resource planning

Journal Article · 22 May 2018 · Energy Policy

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.060 · OSTI ID:1457015

Carvallo, Juan Pablo ^[1]; Larsen, Peter H. ^[1]; Sanstad, Alan H. ^[1]; Goldman, Charles A. ^[1]

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1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Forecasts of electricity consumption and peak demand over time horizons of one or two decades are a key element in electric utilities’ meeting their core objective and obligation to ensure reliable and affordable electricity supplies for their customers while complying with a range of energy and environmental regulations and policies. These forecasts are an important input to integrated resource planning (IRP) processes involving utilities, regulators, and other stake-holders. Despite their importance, however, there has been little analysis of long term utility load forecasting accuracy. We conduct a retrospective analysis of long term load forecasts on twelve Western U. S. electric utilities in the mid-2000s to find that most overestimated both energy consumption and peak demand growth. A key reason for this was the use of assumptions that led to an overestimation of economic growth. We find that the complexity of forecast methods and the accuracy of these forecasts are mildly correlated. In addition, sensitivity and risk analysis of load growth and its implications for capacity expansion were not well integrated with subsequent implementation. As a result, we review changes in the utilities load forecasting methods over the subsequent decade, and discuss the policy implications of long term load forecast inaccuracy and its underlying causes.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Electricity (OE); USDOE Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE)
• Grant/Contract Number: AC02-05CH11231
• OSTI ID: 1457015
• Journal Information: Energy Policy, Journal Name: Energy Policy Journal Issue: C Vol. 119; ISSN 0301-4215
• Publisher: ElsevierCopyright Statement
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
Electric utility
Forecast accuracy
Load
Resource expansion
Resource planning
Retrospective analysis