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Title: Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs

Abstract

Wind energy supply has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, the long-term contribution of wind to future energy supply, and the degree to which policy support is necessary to motivate higher levels of deployment, depends - in part - on the future costs of both onshore and offshore wind. In this paper, we summarize the results of an expert elicitation survey of 163 of the world's foremost wind experts, aimed at better understanding future costs and technology advancement possibilities. Results suggest significant opportunities for cost reductions, but also underlying uncertainties. Under the median scenario, experts anticipate 24-30% reductions by 2030 and 35-41% reductions by 2050 across the three wind applications studied. Costs could be even lower: experts predict a 10% chance that reductions will be more than 40% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050. Insights gained through expert elicitation complement other tools for evaluating cost-reduction potential, and help inform policy and planning, R & D and industry strategy.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [1];  [3];  [4];  [4];  [4]
  1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  2. Insight Decisions, LLC, Denver, CO (United States)
  3. Univ. of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (United States)
  4. National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Wind Energy Technologies Office; International Energy Agency Wind (IEA Wind), Indianapolis, IN (United States); National Science Foundation (NSF)
OSTI Identifier:
1454489
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231; AC36-09GO28308; 1068864
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Nature Energy
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 1; Journal Issue: 10; Related Information: © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.; Journal ID: ISSN 2058-7546
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; 17 WIND ENERGY

Citation Formats

Wiser, Ryan, Jenni, Karen, Seel, Joachim, Baker, Erin, Hand, Maureen, Lantz, Eric, and Smith, Aaron. Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2016.135.
Wiser, Ryan, Jenni, Karen, Seel, Joachim, Baker, Erin, Hand, Maureen, Lantz, Eric, & Smith, Aaron. Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2016.135
Wiser, Ryan, Jenni, Karen, Seel, Joachim, Baker, Erin, Hand, Maureen, Lantz, Eric, and Smith, Aaron. Mon . "Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2016.135. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1454489.
@article{osti_1454489,
title = {Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs},
author = {Wiser, Ryan and Jenni, Karen and Seel, Joachim and Baker, Erin and Hand, Maureen and Lantz, Eric and Smith, Aaron},
abstractNote = {Wind energy supply has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, the long-term contribution of wind to future energy supply, and the degree to which policy support is necessary to motivate higher levels of deployment, depends - in part - on the future costs of both onshore and offshore wind. In this paper, we summarize the results of an expert elicitation survey of 163 of the world's foremost wind experts, aimed at better understanding future costs and technology advancement possibilities. Results suggest significant opportunities for cost reductions, but also underlying uncertainties. Under the median scenario, experts anticipate 24-30% reductions by 2030 and 35-41% reductions by 2050 across the three wind applications studied. Costs could be even lower: experts predict a 10% chance that reductions will be more than 40% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050. Insights gained through expert elicitation complement other tools for evaluating cost-reduction potential, and help inform policy and planning, R & D and industry strategy.},
doi = {10.1038/nenergy.2016.135},
journal = {Nature Energy},
number = 10,
volume = 1,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {9}
}

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