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Title: The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of seasonal western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) predictability. However, the spatial characteristics of ENSO have changed in recent decades, from warming more typically in the eastern equatorial Pacific during canonical or cold tongue El Niño to warming more typically in the central equatorial Pacific during noncanonical or warm pool El Niño. We investigated the response in basinwide WNP TC activity and spatial clustering of TC tracks to the location and magnitude of El Niño using observations, TC-permitting tropical channel model simulations, and a TC track clustering methodology. We found that simulated western North Pacific TC activity, including accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and the number of typhoons and intense typhoons, is more effectively enhanced by sea surface temperature warming of the central, compared to the eastern, equatorial Pacific. El Niño also considerably influenced simulated TC tracks regionally, with a decrease in TCs that were generated near the Asian continent and an increase in clusters that were dominated by TC genesis in the southeastern WNP. This response corresponds with the spatial pattern of reduced vertical wind shear and is most effectively driven by central Pacific SST warming. Finally, internal atmospheric variability generatedmore » a substantial range in the simulated season total ACE (±25% of the median). However, extremely active WNP seasons were linked with El Niño, rather than internal atmospheric variability, in both observations and climate model simulations.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5]
  1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  2. Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States)
  3. Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)
  4. Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)
  5. Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States); Ocean Univ. of China, Quingdao (China)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC); Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23); National Science Foundation (NSF)
OSTI Identifier:
1454343
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1544295; OSTI ID: 1563955
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231; NA15OAR43100095; NA16OAR4310079; AGS-1347808; AGS-1067937; 41222037; 41221063
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Journal of Climate
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 31; Journal Issue: 14; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; North Pacific Ocean; ENSO; Tropical cyclones; Climate prediction; Climate variability

Citation Formats

Patricola, Christina M., Camargo, Suzana J., Klotzbach, Philip J., Saravanan, R., and Chang, Ping. The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0678.1.
Patricola, Christina M., Camargo, Suzana J., Klotzbach, Philip J., Saravanan, R., & Chang, Ping. The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity. United States. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0678.1.
Patricola, Christina M., Camargo, Suzana J., Klotzbach, Philip J., Saravanan, R., and Chang, Ping. Wed . "The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity". United States. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0678.1.
@article{osti_1454343,
title = {The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity},
author = {Patricola, Christina M. and Camargo, Suzana J. and Klotzbach, Philip J. and Saravanan, R. and Chang, Ping},
abstractNote = {El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of seasonal western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) predictability. However, the spatial characteristics of ENSO have changed in recent decades, from warming more typically in the eastern equatorial Pacific during canonical or cold tongue El Niño to warming more typically in the central equatorial Pacific during noncanonical or warm pool El Niño. We investigated the response in basinwide WNP TC activity and spatial clustering of TC tracks to the location and magnitude of El Niño using observations, TC-permitting tropical channel model simulations, and a TC track clustering methodology. We found that simulated western North Pacific TC activity, including accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and the number of typhoons and intense typhoons, is more effectively enhanced by sea surface temperature warming of the central, compared to the eastern, equatorial Pacific. El Niño also considerably influenced simulated TC tracks regionally, with a decrease in TCs that were generated near the Asian continent and an increase in clusters that were dominated by TC genesis in the southeastern WNP. This response corresponds with the spatial pattern of reduced vertical wind shear and is most effectively driven by central Pacific SST warming. Finally, internal atmospheric variability generated a substantial range in the simulated season total ACE (±25% of the median). However, extremely active WNP seasons were linked with El Niño, rather than internal atmospheric variability, in both observations and climate model simulations.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0678.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = 14,
volume = 31,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {6}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0678.1

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 3 works
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