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Title: The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract

© 2018 American Meteorological Society. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of seasonal western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) predictability. However, the spatial characteristics of ENSO have changed in recent decades, from warming more typically in the eastern equatorial Pacific during canonical or cold tongue El Niño to warming more typically in the central equatorial Pacific during noncanonical or warm pool El Niño. We investigated the response in basinwide WNP TC activity and spatial clustering of TC tracks to the location and magnitude of El Niño using observations, TC-permitting tropical channel model simulations, and a TC track clustering methodology. We found that simulated western North Pacific TC activity, including accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and the number of typhoons and intense typhoons, is more effectively enhanced by sea surface temperature warming of the central, compared to the eastern, equatorial Pacific. El Niño also considerably influenced simulated TC tracks regionally, with a decrease in TCs that were generated near the Asian continent and an increase in clusters that were dominated by TC genesis in the southeastern WNP. This response corresponds with the spatial pattern of reduced vertical wind shear and is most effectively driven by central Pacific SST warming.more » Finally, internal atmospheric variability generated a substantial range in the simulated season total ACE (±25% of the median). However, extremely active WNP seasons were linked with El Niño, rather than internal atmospheric variability, in both observations and climate model simulations.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5]
  1. Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California
  2. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
  3. Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
  4. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas
  5. Department of Oceanography and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, and Physical Oceanography Laboratory/Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF)
OSTI Identifier:
1454343
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1544295; OSTI ID: 1563955
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231; NA15OAR43100095; NA16OAR4310079; AGS-1347808; AGS-1067937; 41222037; 41221063
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Journal of Climate
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Journal of Climate Journal Volume: 31 Journal Issue: 14; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; North Pacific Ocean; ENSO; Tropical cyclones; Climate prediction; Climate variability

Citation Formats

Patricola, Christina M., Camargo, Suzana J., Klotzbach, Philip J., Saravanan, R., and Chang, Ping. The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0678.1.
Patricola, Christina M., Camargo, Suzana J., Klotzbach, Philip J., Saravanan, R., & Chang, Ping. The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity. United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0678.1
Patricola, Christina M., Camargo, Suzana J., Klotzbach, Philip J., Saravanan, R., and Chang, Ping. Sun . "The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity". United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0678.1.
@article{osti_1454343,
title = {The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity},
author = {Patricola, Christina M. and Camargo, Suzana J. and Klotzbach, Philip J. and Saravanan, R. and Chang, Ping},
abstractNote = {© 2018 American Meteorological Society. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of seasonal western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) predictability. However, the spatial characteristics of ENSO have changed in recent decades, from warming more typically in the eastern equatorial Pacific during canonical or cold tongue El Niño to warming more typically in the central equatorial Pacific during noncanonical or warm pool El Niño. We investigated the response in basinwide WNP TC activity and spatial clustering of TC tracks to the location and magnitude of El Niño using observations, TC-permitting tropical channel model simulations, and a TC track clustering methodology. We found that simulated western North Pacific TC activity, including accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and the number of typhoons and intense typhoons, is more effectively enhanced by sea surface temperature warming of the central, compared to the eastern, equatorial Pacific. El Niño also considerably influenced simulated TC tracks regionally, with a decrease in TCs that were generated near the Asian continent and an increase in clusters that were dominated by TC genesis in the southeastern WNP. This response corresponds with the spatial pattern of reduced vertical wind shear and is most effectively driven by central Pacific SST warming. Finally, internal atmospheric variability generated a substantial range in the simulated season total ACE (±25% of the median). However, extremely active WNP seasons were linked with El Niño, rather than internal atmospheric variability, in both observations and climate model simulations.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0678.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = 14,
volume = 31,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {7}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0678.1

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 3 works
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Figures / Tables:

TABLE 1 TABLE 1: List of WNP typhoon seasons over the 1950–2011 period classified as CT El Niño, WP El Niño, neutral ENSO, and La Niña, based on August–October averaged Niño-3, Niño-3.4, and Niño-4 indices as described in section 3a.

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Works referencing / citing this record:

The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity
text, January 2018

  • Patricola, Christina M.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Klotzbach, Philip J.
  • Columbia University
  • DOI: 10.7916/d8-1245-t276

Simulated ENSO's impact on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific in CMIP5 models and its changes under global warming
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  • Tan, Kexin; Huang, Ping; Liu, Fei
  • International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 39, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.1002/joc.6031

Interannual and interdecadal impact of Western North Pacific Subtropical High on tropical cyclone activity
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Projected changes in ENSO-driven regional tropical cyclone tracks
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  • Wang, Hong; Xu, Min; Onyejuruwa, Anselem
  • Environment, Development and Sustainability, Vol. 21, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10668-019-00481-7

Diversity of ENSO Events Unified by Convective Threshold Sea Surface Temperature: A Nonlinear ENSO Index
journal, September 2018

  • Williams, Ian N.; Patricola, Christina M.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 17
  • DOI: 10.1029/2018gl079203

High‐Resolution Ensemble Simulations of Intense Tropical Cyclones and Their Internal Variability During the El Niños of 1997 and 2015
journal, July 2019

  • Yamada, Y.; Kodama, C.; Satoh, M.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 13
  • DOI: 10.1029/2019gl082086

On the Mechanisms of the Active 2018 Tropical Cyclone Season in the North Pacific
journal, November 2019

  • Qian, Y.; Murakami, H.; Nakano, M.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 21
  • DOI: 10.1029/2019gl084566