Spring Onset Predictability in the North American Multimodel Ensemble

doi:10.1029/2018JD028597

Title: Spring Onset Predictability in the North American Multimodel Ensemble

Authors:

^[1]; Ault, Toby R. ^[1]; Wilks, Daniel S. ^[1]

Department of Earth and Atmospheric SciencesCornell University Ithaca NY USA

Publication Date:: 2018-06-12

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE

OSTI Identifier:: 1441242

Alternate Identifier(s):: OSTI ID: 1441243

Resource Type:: Published Article

Journal Name:: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Journal Volume: 123 Journal Issue: 11; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Formats


                    Carrillo, Carlos M., Ault, Toby R., and Wilks, Daniel S. Spring Onset Predictability in the North American Multimodel Ensemble.  United States: N. p., 2018. 
        Web.  doi:10.1029/2018JD028597.

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                    Carrillo, Carlos M., Ault, Toby R., & Wilks, Daniel S. Spring Onset Predictability in the North American Multimodel Ensemble.  United States.  doi:10.1029/2018JD028597.

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                    Carrillo, Carlos M., Ault, Toby R., and Wilks, Daniel S. Tue .  
        "Spring Onset Predictability in the North American Multimodel Ensemble".  United States.  doi:10.1029/2018JD028597.

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@article{osti_1441242,

  title        = {Spring Onset Predictability in the North American Multimodel Ensemble},

  author       = {Carrillo, Carlos M. and Ault, Toby R. and Wilks, Daniel S.},

  abstractNote = {},

  doi          = {10.1029/2018JD028597},

  journal      = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},

  number       = 11,

  volume       = 123,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {2018},

  month        = {6}

}

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DOI: 10.1029/2018JD028597

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Title: Spring Onset Predictability in the North American Multimodel Ensemble

Citation Formats

Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation journal, March 2007

Predictability and Forecast Skill in NMME journal, August 2014

A Matlab© toolbox for calculating spring indices from daily meteorological data journal, October 2015

Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere journal, February 2006

Northern Hemisphere Modes of Variability and the Timing of Spring in Western North America journal, August 2011

“The Stippling Shows Statistically Significant Grid Points”: How Research Results are Routinely Overstated and Overinterpreted, and What to Do about It journal, December 2016

The False Spring of 2012, Earliest in North American Record journal, May 2013

Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions journal, June 1976

The Impact of the Annual Cycle on the North Pacific/North American Response to Remote Low-Frequency Forcing journal, April 1998

Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity journal, August 2006

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation journal, May 2005

Climate change is advancing spring onset across the U.S. national park system journal, October 2016

Ensemble post-processing using member-by-member approaches: theoretical aspects: Ensemble Post-processing using Member-by-Member Approaches journal, June 2014

A Modeling Study of the Causes and Predictability of the Spring 2011 Extreme U.S. Weather Activity journal, November 2016

On the effect of ensemble size on the discrete and continuous ranked probability scores journal, January 2008

Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping journal, January 2012

An Approach to Examining Regional Atmosphere-Plant Interactions with Phenological Data journal, November 1986

The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction journal, April 2014

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 journal, March 2014

Joint bias correction of temperature and precipitation in climate model simulations journal, December 2014

Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices: SPRING ONSET VARIATIONS AND TRENDS IN THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES journal, November 2012

Changes in the Onset of Spring in the Western United States journal, March 2001

Hydrologic Prediction over the Conterminous United States Using the National Multi-Model Ensemble journal, August 2014

Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
journal, March 2007

Predictability and Forecast Skill in NMME
journal, August 2014

A Matlab© toolbox for calculating spring indices from daily meteorological data
journal, October 2015

Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere
journal, February 2006

Northern Hemisphere Modes of Variability and the Timing of Spring in Western North America
journal, August 2011

“The Stippling Shows Statistically Significant Grid Points”: How Research Results are Routinely Overstated and Overinterpreted, and What to Do about It
journal, December 2016

The False Spring of 2012, Earliest in North American Record
journal, May 2013

Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions
journal, June 1976

The Impact of the Annual Cycle on the North Pacific/North American Response to Remote Low-Frequency Forcing
journal, April 1998

Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity
journal, August 2006

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation
journal, May 2005

Climate change is advancing spring onset across the U.S. national park system
journal, October 2016

Ensemble post-processing using member-by-member approaches: theoretical aspects: Ensemble Post-processing using Member-by-Member Approaches
journal, June 2014

A Modeling Study of the Causes and Predictability of the Spring 2011 Extreme U.S. Weather Activity
journal, November 2016

On the effect of ensemble size on the discrete and continuous ranked probability scores
journal, January 2008

Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping
journal, January 2012

An Approach to Examining Regional Atmosphere-Plant Interactions with Phenological Data
journal, November 1986

The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction
journal, April 2014

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2
journal, March 2014

Joint bias correction of temperature and precipitation in climate model simulations
journal, December 2014

Spring onset variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature-based indices: SPRING ONSET VARIATIONS AND TRENDS IN THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
journal, November 2012

Changes in the Onset of Spring in the Western United States
journal, March 2001

Hydrologic Prediction over the Conterminous United States Using the National Multi-Model Ensemble
journal, August 2014