Land Surface Cooling Induced by Sulfate Geoengineering Constrained by Major Volcanic Eruptions
Abstract
Abstract Solar radiation management by stratospheric aerosol injection (SRM‐SAI) has been proposed as a possible method to counteract anthropogenic global warming, with climate models suggesting it could reduce substantially global temperature and associated impacts. Its effectiveness as simulated by Earth system models exhibits, however, large uncertainties, implying high risks for natural and human ecosystems. Here we identify an emergent relationship linking the long‐term global land surface cooling due to SRM‐SAI and the short‐term cooling following the twentieth century major volcanic eruptions across an Earth system models ensemble. This emergent relationship, combined with observations and reanalysis data, is used to constrain the global land surface temperature (LT) response to reduced downward solar radiation. Based on these constraints, we find a mean decrease in land surface temperature of 0.44 K·W −1 ·m 2 , 20% smaller than the unconstrained multimodel mean. This new estimate may affect how trade‐offs between cost, risk, and effectiveness of SRM‐SAI might be considered.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[1];
[1];
[2];
[3]
- Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Toulouse France
- Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USA
- Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Center for Climate Research Bergen Norway
- Publication Date:
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1441093
- Grant/Contract Number:
- DE‐AC05‐76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Publisher's Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Volume: 45 Journal Issue: 11; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Citation Formats
Plazzotta, Maxime, Séférian, Roland, Douville, Hervé, Kravitz, Ben, and Tjiputra, Jerry. Land Surface Cooling Induced by Sulfate Geoengineering Constrained by Major Volcanic Eruptions. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1029/2018GL077583.
Plazzotta, Maxime, Séférian, Roland, Douville, Hervé, Kravitz, Ben, & Tjiputra, Jerry. Land Surface Cooling Induced by Sulfate Geoengineering Constrained by Major Volcanic Eruptions. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077583
Plazzotta, Maxime, Séférian, Roland, Douville, Hervé, Kravitz, Ben, and Tjiputra, Jerry. Sat .
"Land Surface Cooling Induced by Sulfate Geoengineering Constrained by Major Volcanic Eruptions". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077583.
@article{osti_1441093,
title = {Land Surface Cooling Induced by Sulfate Geoengineering Constrained by Major Volcanic Eruptions},
author = {Plazzotta, Maxime and Séférian, Roland and Douville, Hervé and Kravitz, Ben and Tjiputra, Jerry},
abstractNote = {Abstract Solar radiation management by stratospheric aerosol injection (SRM‐SAI) has been proposed as a possible method to counteract anthropogenic global warming, with climate models suggesting it could reduce substantially global temperature and associated impacts. Its effectiveness as simulated by Earth system models exhibits, however, large uncertainties, implying high risks for natural and human ecosystems. Here we identify an emergent relationship linking the long‐term global land surface cooling due to SRM‐SAI and the short‐term cooling following the twentieth century major volcanic eruptions across an Earth system models ensemble. This emergent relationship, combined with observations and reanalysis data, is used to constrain the global land surface temperature (LT) response to reduced downward solar radiation. Based on these constraints, we find a mean decrease in land surface temperature of 0.44 K·W −1 ·m 2 , 20% smaller than the unconstrained multimodel mean. This new estimate may affect how trade‐offs between cost, risk, and effectiveness of SRM‐SAI might be considered.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL077583},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 11,
volume = 45,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat Jun 09 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Sat Jun 09 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077583
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