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Title: A modeling framework for evaluating the drought resilience of a surface water supply system under non-stationarity

Here, the future resilience of water supply systems is unprecedentedly challenged by non-stationary processes, such as fast population growth and a changing climate. A thorough understanding of how these non-stationarities impact water supply resilience is vital to support sustainable decision making, particularly for large cities in arid and/or semi-arid regions. In this study, a novel modeling framework, which integrates hydrological processes and water management, was established over a representative water limited metropolitan area to evaluate the impacts of water availability and water demand on reservoir storage and water supply reliability. In this framework, climate change induced drought events were selected from statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 outputs under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, while future water demand was estimated by the product of projected future population and per capita water use. Compared with the first half of the 21st century (2000–2049), reservoir storage and water supply reliability during the second half century (2050–2099) are projected to reduce by 16.1% and 14.2%, respectively. While both future multi-year droughts and population growth will lower water supply resilience, the uncertainty associated with future climate projection is larger than that associated with urbanization. To reduce the drought risks, a combinationmore » of mitigation strategies (e.g., additional conservation, integrating new water sources, and water use redistribution) was found to be the most efficient approach and can significantly improve water supply reliability by as much as 15.9%.« less
ORCiD logo [1] ; ORCiD logo [1] ; ORCiD logo [2] ; ORCiD logo [3] ;  [4]
  1. Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)
  2. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  3. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  4. Forschungszentrum Julich, Julich (Germany)
Publication Date:
Report Number(s):
Journal ID: ISSN 0022-1694
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725; CBET-1454297; AC05-76RL01830
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Hydrology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 563; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0022-1694
Research Org:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
Country of Publication:
United States
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Water supply resilience; Non-stationarity; Droughts; Climate change; Demand growth
OSTI Identifier:
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1454775