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Title: Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

Abstract

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5°C above preindustrial average temperatures. In this paper, we present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5°C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

Authors:
ORCiD logo; ORCiD logo; ; ORCiD logo;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1440369
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1434026
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231; SC0016605
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Earth System Dynamics (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Earth System Dynamics (Online) Journal Volume: 9 Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
Germany
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Citation Formats

Wehner, Michael F., Reed, Kevin A., Loring, Burlen, Stone, Dáithí, and Krishnan, Harinarayan. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols. Germany: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.5194/esd-9-187-2018.
Wehner, Michael F., Reed, Kevin A., Loring, Burlen, Stone, Dáithí, & Krishnan, Harinarayan. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols. Germany. doi:10.5194/esd-9-187-2018.
Wehner, Michael F., Reed, Kevin A., Loring, Burlen, Stone, Dáithí, and Krishnan, Harinarayan. Wed . "Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols". Germany. doi:10.5194/esd-9-187-2018.
@article{osti_1440369,
title = {Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols},
author = {Wehner, Michael F. and Reed, Kevin A. and Loring, Burlen and Stone, Dáithí and Krishnan, Harinarayan},
abstractNote = {The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5°C above preindustrial average temperatures. In this paper, we present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5°C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-9-187-2018},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics (Online)},
number = 1,
volume = 9,
place = {Germany},
year = {2018},
month = {2}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
DOI: 10.5194/esd-9-187-2018

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 4 works
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