The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition
Abstract
Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km2, that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accountingmore »
- Authors:
-
- Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Utah State University, Logan Utah
- Department of Entomology, University of Minnesota, St Paul Minnesota
- Alberta Agriculture and Forestry, Forestry Division, Edmonton Alberta
- Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria British Columbia
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); LANL Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; PNNL Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1439362
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1439363; OSTI ID: 1441314; OSTI ID: 1457766
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-17-30013; PNNL-SA-133988
Journal ID: ISSN 1354-1013
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-06NA25396; AC05-76RL01830; XWPB00 CPF8GMAN
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Global Change Biology
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Global Change Biology; Journal ID: ISSN 1354-1013
- Publisher:
- Wiley
- Country of Publication:
- United Kingdom
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Earth Sciences; Insect, outbreak, carbon, tree mortality; bark beetle; climate change; density dependence; dynamics; insect; outbreak; population ecology
Citation Formats
Goodsman, Devin W., Grosklos, Guenchik, Aukema, Brian H., Whitehouse, Caroline, Bleiker, Katherine P., McDowell, Nate G., Middleton, Richard S., and Xu, Chonggang. The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition. United Kingdom: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1111/gcb.14284.
Goodsman, Devin W., Grosklos, Guenchik, Aukema, Brian H., Whitehouse, Caroline, Bleiker, Katherine P., McDowell, Nate G., Middleton, Richard S., & Xu, Chonggang. The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition. United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14284
Goodsman, Devin W., Grosklos, Guenchik, Aukema, Brian H., Whitehouse, Caroline, Bleiker, Katherine P., McDowell, Nate G., Middleton, Richard S., and Xu, Chonggang. Tue .
"The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition". United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14284.
@article{osti_1439362,
title = {The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition},
author = {Goodsman, Devin W. and Grosklos, Guenchik and Aukema, Brian H. and Whitehouse, Caroline and Bleiker, Katherine P. and McDowell, Nate G. and Middleton, Richard S. and Xu, Chonggang},
abstractNote = {Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km2, that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.14284},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {Tue May 29 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Tue May 29 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14284
Web of Science
Figures / Tables:
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