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Title: The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition

Abstract

Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km2, that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accountingmore » for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [1];  [1]
  1. Earth and Environmental Science Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos New Mexico
  2. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Utah State University, Logan Utah
  3. Department of Entomology, University of Minnesota, St Paul Minnesota
  4. Alberta Agriculture and Forestry, Forestry Division, Edmonton Alberta
  5. Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria British Columbia
  6. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); LANL Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; PNNL Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program
OSTI Identifier:
1439362
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1439363; OSTI ID: 1441314; OSTI ID: 1457766
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-17-30013; PNNL-SA-133988
Journal ID: ISSN 1354-1013
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC52-06NA25396; AC05-76RL01830; XWPB00 CPF8GMAN
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Global Change Biology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Global Change Biology; Journal ID: ISSN 1354-1013
Publisher:
Wiley
Country of Publication:
United Kingdom
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Earth Sciences; Insect, outbreak, carbon, tree mortality; bark beetle; climate change; density dependence; dynamics; insect; outbreak; population ecology

Citation Formats

Goodsman, Devin W., Grosklos, Guenchik, Aukema, Brian H., Whitehouse, Caroline, Bleiker, Katherine P., McDowell, Nate G., Middleton, Richard S., and Xu, Chonggang. The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition. United Kingdom: N. p., 2018. Web. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14284.
Goodsman, Devin W., Grosklos, Guenchik, Aukema, Brian H., Whitehouse, Caroline, Bleiker, Katherine P., McDowell, Nate G., Middleton, Richard S., & Xu, Chonggang. The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition. United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14284
Goodsman, Devin W., Grosklos, Guenchik, Aukema, Brian H., Whitehouse, Caroline, Bleiker, Katherine P., McDowell, Nate G., Middleton, Richard S., and Xu, Chonggang. Tue . "The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition". United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14284.
@article{osti_1439362,
title = {The effect of warmer winters on the demography of an outbreak insect is hidden by intraspecific competition},
author = {Goodsman, Devin W. and Grosklos, Guenchik and Aukema, Brian H. and Whitehouse, Caroline and Bleiker, Katherine P. and McDowell, Nate G. and Middleton, Richard S. and Xu, Chonggang},
abstractNote = {Warmer climates are predicted to increase bark beetle outbreak frequency, severity, and range. Even in favorable climates, however, outbreaks can decelerate due to resource limitation, which necessitates the inclusion of competition for limited resources in analyses of climatic effects on populations. We evaluated several hypotheses of how climate impacts mountain pine beetle reproduction using an extensive 9-year dataset, in which nearly 10,000 trees were sampled across a region of approximately 90,000 km2, that was recently invaded by the mountain pine beetle in Alberta, Canada. Our analysis supports the hypothesis of a positive effect of warmer winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle overwinter survival and provides evidence that the increasing trend in minimum winter temperatures over time in North America is an important driver of increased mountain pine beetle reproduction across the region. Although we demonstrate a consistent effect of warmer minimum winter temperatures on mountain pine beetle reproductive rates that is evident at the landscape and regional scales, this effect is overwhelmed by the effect of competition for resources within trees at the site level. Our results suggest that detection of the effects of a warming climate on bark beetle populations at small spatial scales may be difficult without accounting for negative density dependence due to competition for resources.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.14284},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {2018},
month = {5}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14284

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 2 works
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Figures / Tables:

Figure 1 Figure 1: Four hypotheses for how climate may impact density dependent mountain pine beetle reproduction as represented by the generalized Ricker model: (a) Hypothesis 1 (H1) represents a multiplicative effect in which climatic variation raises or lowers the natural logarithm of per capita productivity. (b) Hypothesis 2 (H2) represents amore » compensatory dynamic in which climatic variation leads to a teeter-totter effect. (c) In hypothesis 3 (H3) climatic variability impacts the carrying capacity, which results in a change in the slope of the line. (d) Hypothesis 4 (H4) represents a combination of multiplicative and carrying capacity effects.« less

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