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Title: What drives the market for plug-in electric vehicles? - A review of international PEV market diffusion models

The market diffusion of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) is a research topic which is often addressed, yet PEV market diffusion models differ in their approaches, the factors they include and results. Here, 40 market diffusion models for PEVs are compared in their scope, approach and findings to point out similarities or differences and make recommendations for future improvements in modeling in this field. Important input factors for the US are the purchase price and operating costs, while for Germany energy prices and the charging infrastructure are mentioned more often. Furthermore, larger sales shares of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles than battery electric vehicles are often found in the short term results (until 2030) while the picture is not so clear for the medium-to long-term. Future market penetration models should include specific PEV features like the limited range of battery electric vehicles or access to charging infrastructure, which are currently not covered by many models. Furthermore, the integration of current policy regulations and, if possible, indirect policy incentives would enhance research in this field.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [1] ;  [3] ;  [4]
  1. Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Karlsruhe (Germany)
  2. Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Lemont, IL (United States)
  3. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  4. German Aerospace Center, Institute of Vehicle Concepts, Stuttgart (Germany)
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-06CH11357
Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 93; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 1364-0321
Publisher:
Elsevier
Research Org:
Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Vehicle Technologies Office (EE-3V)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS; Plug-in electric vehicle market diffusion; diffusion model; literature review
OSTI Identifier:
1438934
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1477451

Gnann, Till, Stephens, Thomas S., Lin, Zhenhong, Plötz, Patrick, Liu, Changzheng, and Brokate, Jens. What drives the market for plug-in electric vehicles? - A review of international PEV market diffusion models. United States: N. p., Web. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2018.03.055.
Gnann, Till, Stephens, Thomas S., Lin, Zhenhong, Plötz, Patrick, Liu, Changzheng, & Brokate, Jens. What drives the market for plug-in electric vehicles? - A review of international PEV market diffusion models. United States. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2018.03.055.
Gnann, Till, Stephens, Thomas S., Lin, Zhenhong, Plötz, Patrick, Liu, Changzheng, and Brokate, Jens. 2018. "What drives the market for plug-in electric vehicles? - A review of international PEV market diffusion models". United States. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2018.03.055.
@article{osti_1438934,
title = {What drives the market for plug-in electric vehicles? - A review of international PEV market diffusion models},
author = {Gnann, Till and Stephens, Thomas S. and Lin, Zhenhong and Plötz, Patrick and Liu, Changzheng and Brokate, Jens},
abstractNote = {The market diffusion of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) is a research topic which is often addressed, yet PEV market diffusion models differ in their approaches, the factors they include and results. Here, 40 market diffusion models for PEVs are compared in their scope, approach and findings to point out similarities or differences and make recommendations for future improvements in modeling in this field. Important input factors for the US are the purchase price and operating costs, while for Germany energy prices and the charging infrastructure are mentioned more often. Furthermore, larger sales shares of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles than battery electric vehicles are often found in the short term results (until 2030) while the picture is not so clear for the medium-to long-term. Future market penetration models should include specific PEV features like the limited range of battery electric vehicles or access to charging infrastructure, which are currently not covered by many models. Furthermore, the integration of current policy regulations and, if possible, indirect policy incentives would enhance research in this field.},
doi = {10.1016/j.rser.2018.03.055},
journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews},
number = C,
volume = 93,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {5}
}