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Title: Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

Abstract

Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections.We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions of local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. In conclusion, we illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [1];  [3]
  1. Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ (United States)
  2. Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ (United States)
  3. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Univ. Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1438454
Grant/Contract Number:  
FC02-97ER62402
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Climatic Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 137; Journal Issue: 3-4; Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009
Publisher:
Springer
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Flood Risk; Generalize Extreme Value; Flood Hazard; Generalize Pareto Distribution; Flood Risk Management

Citation Formats

Buchanan, Maya K., Kopp, Robert E., Oppenheimer, Michael, and Tebaldi, Claudia. Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7.
Buchanan, Maya K., Kopp, Robert E., Oppenheimer, Michael, & Tebaldi, Claudia. Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise. United States. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7.
Buchanan, Maya K., Kopp, Robert E., Oppenheimer, Michael, and Tebaldi, Claudia. Fri . "Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise". United States. doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1438454.
@article{osti_1438454,
title = {Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise},
author = {Buchanan, Maya K. and Kopp, Robert E. and Oppenheimer, Michael and Tebaldi, Claudia},
abstractNote = {Estimates of future flood hazards made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level are biased low due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inadequate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. SLR allowances—the height adjustment from historic flood levels that maintain under uncertainty the annual expected probability of flooding—are typically estimated independently of individual decision-makers’ preferences, such as time horizon, risk tolerance, and confidence in SLR projections.We provide a framework of SLR allowances that employs complete probability distributions of local SLR and a range of user-defined flood risk management preferences. Given non-stationary and uncertain sea-level rise, these metrics provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons in coastal areas. In conclusion, we illustrate the calculation of various allowance types for a set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-016-1664-7},
journal = {Climatic Change},
number = 3-4,
volume = 137,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {6}
}

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Cited by: 29 works
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Works referenced in this record:

Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise
journal, September 2008


An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets
journal, January 2013


Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world
journal, April 2013


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Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example
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Decision Criteria, Scientific Uncertainty, and the Globalwarming Controversy
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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions
    journal, February 2018


    Geographic Variability of Sea-Level Change
    journal, July 2015

    • Kopp, Robert E.; Hay, Carling C.; Little, Christopher M.
    • Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 1, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.1007/s40641-015-0015-5

    CoastAdapt: an adaptation decision support framework for Australia’s coastal managers
    journal, April 2018


    Addressing ‘deep’ uncertainty over long-term climate in major infrastructure projects: four innovations of the Thames Estuary 2100 Project
    journal, October 2013

    • Ranger, Nicola; Reeder, Tim; Lowe, Jason
    • EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Vol. 1, Issue 3-4
    • DOI: 10.1007/s40070-013-0014-5

    Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change
    journal, February 2012

    • Lin, Ning; Emanuel, Kerry; Oppenheimer, Michael
    • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 6
    • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1389

    Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change?
    journal, November 2008


    What are robust strategies in the face of uncertain climate threshold responses?: Robust climate strategies
    journal, January 2012


    Towards a global regionally varying allowance for sea-level rise
    journal, October 2013


    Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands: Adaptation tipping points
    journal, August 2010

    • Kwadijk, Jaap C. J.; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Mulder, Jan P. M.
    • Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 1, Issue 5
    • DOI: 10.1002/wcc.64

    Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms
    journal, November 1961

    • Ellsberg, Daniel
    • The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 75, Issue 4
    • DOI: 10.2307/1884324

    Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world
    journal, April 2013


    A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation
    journal, December 2010

    • Moser, S. C.; Ekstrom, J. A.
    • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 51
    • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1007887107

    Decision Criteria, Scientific Uncertainty, and the Globalwarming Controversy
    journal, April 2005

    • Froyn, Camilla Bretteville
    • Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 10, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1007/s11027-005-3782-9

    Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example
    journal, February 2011


    Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US cities
    journal, July 2015

    • Wahl, Thomas; Jain, Shaleen; Bender, Jens
    • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 12
    • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2736

    Past and future sea-level rise along the coast of North Carolina, USA
    journal, June 2015


    Toward a physically plausible upper bound of sea-level rise projections
    journal, October 2012


    Guiding Resource Allocations Based on Terrorism Risk
    journal, June 2007


    A simple technique for estimating an allowance for uncertain sea-level rise
    journal, November 2011


    Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise
    journal, September 2008


    Design Life Level: Quantifying risk in a changing climate: Design Life Level
    journal, September 2013

    • Rootzén, Holger; Katz, Richard W.
    • Water Resources Research, Vol. 49, Issue 9
    • DOI: 10.1002/wrcr.20425

    Assessing Sea-Level Rise Impacts: A GIS-Based Framework and Application to Coastal New Jersey
    journal, July 2010


    Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts
    journal, January 2012

    • Tebaldi, Claudia; Strauss, Benjamin H.; Zervas, Chris E.
    • Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 7, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014032

    An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets
    journal, January 2013


    Reflections: Uncertainty and Decision Making in Climate Change Economics
    journal, January 2014

    • Heal, G.; Millner, A.
    • Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol. 8, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1093/reep/ret023

    CoastAdapt: an adaptation decision support framework for Australia’s coastal managers
    journal, April 2018


    Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions
    journal, February 2018