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Title: Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts

Abstract

Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. In this study, we present results from a common garden, climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine, a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low-elevation provenance had more than three-fold greater recruitment to their third year than seeds from a high-elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range and across climate manipulations. Heating halved recruitment to the third year of both low- and high-elevation seed sources across the elevation gradient, while watering more than doubled recruitment, alleviating some of the negative effects of heating. Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long-term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid postfire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low-elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiplemore » centuries. In conclusion, our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species’ range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [4];  [2];  [5]
  1. Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy and Resources Group
  2. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division; University of California, Merced, CA (United States). Sierra Nevada Research Institute
  3. Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Boise, ID (United States). US Geological Survey
  4. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Department of Geography
  5. Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy and Resources Group; Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division; University of California, Merced, CA (United States). Sierra Nevada Research Institute
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1437975
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1394673
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231; FG02-07ER64457
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Global Change Biology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 24; Journal Issue: 1; Related Information: © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd; Journal ID: ISSN 1354-1013
Publisher:
Wiley
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; treeline; climate change; seed provenance; range shift; time lag; demographic model; Pinus contorta

Citation Formats

Conlisk, Erin, Castanha, Cristina, Germino, Matthew J., Veblen, Thomas T., Smith, Jeremy M., Moyes, Andrew B., and Kueppers, Lara M. Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1111/gcb.13840.
Conlisk, Erin, Castanha, Cristina, Germino, Matthew J., Veblen, Thomas T., Smith, Jeremy M., Moyes, Andrew B., & Kueppers, Lara M. Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts. United States. doi:10.1111/gcb.13840.
Conlisk, Erin, Castanha, Cristina, Germino, Matthew J., Veblen, Thomas T., Smith, Jeremy M., Moyes, Andrew B., and Kueppers, Lara M. Wed . "Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts". United States. doi:10.1111/gcb.13840. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1437975.
@article{osti_1437975,
title = {Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts},
author = {Conlisk, Erin and Castanha, Cristina and Germino, Matthew J. and Veblen, Thomas T. and Smith, Jeremy M. and Moyes, Andrew B. and Kueppers, Lara M.},
abstractNote = {Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. In this study, we present results from a common garden, climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine, a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low-elevation provenance had more than three-fold greater recruitment to their third year than seeds from a high-elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range and across climate manipulations. Heating halved recruitment to the third year of both low- and high-elevation seed sources across the elevation gradient, while watering more than doubled recruitment, alleviating some of the negative effects of heating. Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long-term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid postfire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low-elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiple centuries. In conclusion, our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species’ range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13840},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
number = 1,
volume = 24,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {7}
}

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Cited by: 5 works
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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Gene flow in Limber Pine: Evidence from Pollination Phenology and Genetic Differentiation Along an Elevational Transect
    journal, September 1989


    Tree range expansion in eastern North America fails to keep pace with climate warming at northern range limits
    journal, February 2017

    • Sittaro, Fabian; Paquette, Alain; Messier, Christian
    • Global Change Biology, Vol. 23, Issue 8
    • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13622

    Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations: Climate change outcomes for tree populations
    journal, January 2008


    An experimental approach to explain the southern Andes elevational treeline
    journal, May 2014

    • Fajardo, Alex; Piper, Frida I.
    • American Journal of Botany, Vol. 101, Issue 5
    • DOI: 10.3732/ajb.1400166

    Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts
    journal, October 2010


    A review of precipitation and temperature control on seedling emergence and establishment for ponderosa and lodgepole pine forest regeneration
    journal, February 2016


    Genetic Responses to Climate in Pinus contorta: Niche Breadth, Climate Change, and Reforestation
    journal, August 1999

    • Rehfeldt, Gerald E.; Ying, Cheng C.; Spittlehouse, David L.
    • Ecological Monographs, Vol. 69, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.2307/2657162

    Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming
    journal, March 2017

    • Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.
    • Journal of Ecology, Vol. 105, Issue 5
    • DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.12750

    Infrared heater arrays for warming ecosystem field plots: INFRARED HEATER ARRAYS
    journal, November 2007


    Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America
    journal, May 2007


    Potential effects of climate change on the growth of lodgepole pine across diameter size classes and ecological regions
    journal, November 2008


    Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models
    journal, August 2012


    Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under twenty-first-century climate change
    journal, May 2012

    • Dullinger, Stefan; Gattringer, Andreas; Thuiller, Wilfried
    • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 8
    • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1514

    Uncertainty in assessing the impacts of global change with coupled dynamic species distribution and population models
    journal, December 2012

    • Conlisk, Erin; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Franklin, Janet
    • Global Change Biology, Vol. 19, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12090

    Modelling the effect of habitat fragmentation on climate-driven migration of European forest understorey plants
    journal, August 2015

    • Dullinger, Stefan; Dendoncker, Nicolas; Gattringer, Andreas
    • Diversity and Distributions, Vol. 21, Issue 12
    • DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12370

    The Influence of fire Interval and Serotiny on Postfire Lodgepole pine Density in Yellowstone National park
    journal, November 2003

    • Schoennagel, Tania; Turner, Monica G.; Romme, William H.
    • Ecology, Vol. 84, Issue 11
    • DOI: 10.1890/02-0277

    Climate Change and Bark Beetles of the Western United States and Canada: Direct and Indirect Effects
    journal, September 2010

    • Bentz, Barbara J.; Régnière, Jacques; Fettig, Christopher J.
    • BioScience, Vol. 60, Issue 8
    • DOI: 10.1525/bio.2010.60.8.6

    Fitting Linear Mixed-Effects Models Using lme4
    journal, January 2015

    • Bates, Douglas; Mächler, Martin; Bolker, Ben
    • Journal of Statistical Software, Vol. 67, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.18637/jss.v067.i01

    Gene Flow and Local Adaptation in Trees
    journal, December 2007


    Snowpack-climate manipulation using infrared heaters in subalpine forests of the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA
    journal, April 2015


    Widespread Increase of Tree Mortality Rates in the Western United States
    journal, January 2009


    Regeneration of montane forests 24 years after the 1988 Yellowstone fires: A fire-catalyzed shift in lower treelines?
    journal, August 2016

    • Donato, Daniel C.; Harvey, Brian J.; Turner, Monica G.
    • Ecosphere, Vol. 7, Issue 8
    • DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.1410

    Forest developmental trajectories in mountain pine beetle disturbed forests of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado
    journal, April 2011

    • Diskin, Matthew; Rocca, Monique E.; Nelson, Kellen N.
    • Canadian Journal of Forest Research, Vol. 41, Issue 4
    • DOI: 10.1139/x10-247

    Spatiotemporal patterns of mountain pine beetle activity in the southern Rocky Mountains
    journal, October 2012

    • Chapman, Teresa B.; Veblen, Thomas T.; Schoennagel, Tania
    • Ecology, Vol. 93, Issue 10
    • DOI: 10.1890/11-1055.1

    Conifer seedling recruitment across a gradient from forest to alpine tundra: effects of species, provenance, and site
    journal, December 2013


    The geographical and environmental determinants of genetic diversity for four alpine conifers of the European Alps
    journal, October 2012

    • Mosca, E.; Eckert, A. J.; Di Pierro, E. A.
    • Molecular Ecology, Vol. 21, Issue 22
    • DOI: 10.1111/mec.12043

    Conflicting selection from fire and seed predation drives fine-scaled phenotypic variation in a widespread North American conifer
    journal, June 2014

    • Talluto, Matthew V.; Benkman, Craig W.
    • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 26
    • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1400944111

    Geographic pattern of local optimality in natural populations of lodgepole pine
    journal, June 2004


    Age and Size Structure of Subalpine Forests in the Colorado Front Range
    journal, July 1986

    • Veblen, Thomas T.
    • Bulletin of the Torrey Botanical Club, Vol. 113, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.2307/2996361

    Physiological quality of lodgepole pine and interior spruce seedlings: effects of lift date and duration of freezer storage
    journal, August 1985

    • Ritchie, Gary A.; Roden, John R.; Kleyn, Nick
    • Canadian Journal of Forest Research, Vol. 15, Issue 4
    • DOI: 10.1139/x85-104

    A process-based approach to estimate lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl.) distribution in the Pacific Northwest under climate change
    journal, August 2010


    Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest
    journal, December 2016

    • Kueppers, Lara M.; Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina
    • Global Change Biology, Vol. 23, Issue 6
    • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13561

    Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in the southwestern United States
    journal, December 2010

    • Williams, A. P.; Allen, C. D.; Millar, C. I.
    • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 50
    • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0914211107

    Data from: Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts
    dataset, July 2017

    • Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.
    • Dryad Digital Repository-Supplementary information for journal article at DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13840, 1 ZIP file (1.918 Mb)
    • DOI: 10.5061/dryad.tk1v8

    Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions
    journal, September 2009

    • Jackson, S. T.; Betancourt, J. L.; Booth, R. K.
    • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue Supplement_2
    • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0901644106

    Are treelines advancing? A global meta-analysis of treeline response to climate warming
    journal, October 2009


    Time to get moving: assisted gene flow of forest trees
    journal, August 2015

    • Aitken, Sally N.; Bemmels, Jordan B.
    • Evolutionary Applications, Vol. 9, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1111/eva.12293

    Potential for evolutionary responses to climate change - evidence from tree populations
    journal, April 2013

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