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Title: Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts

Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. In this study, we present results from a common garden, climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine, a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low-elevation provenance had more than three-fold greater recruitment to their third year than seeds from a high-elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range and across climate manipulations. Heating halved recruitment to the third year of both low- and high-elevation seed sources across the elevation gradient, while watering more than doubled recruitment, alleviating some of the negative effects of heating. Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long-term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid postfire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low-elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiplemore » centuries. In conclusion, our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species’ range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change.« less
Authors:
ORCiD logo [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [4] ;  [2] ;  [5]
  1. Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy and Resources Group
  2. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division; University of California, Merced, CA (United States). Sierra Nevada Research Institute
  3. Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Boise, ID (United States). US Geological Survey
  4. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Department of Geography
  5. Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy and Resources Group; Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division; University of California, Merced, CA (United States). Sierra Nevada Research Institute
Publication Date:
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231; FG02-07ER64457
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Global Change Biology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 24; Journal Issue: 1; Related Information: © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd; Journal ID: ISSN 1354-1013
Publisher:
Wiley
Research Org:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; treeline; climate change; seed provenance; range shift; time lag; demographic model; Pinus contorta
OSTI Identifier:
1437975
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1394673

Conlisk, Erin, Castanha, Cristina, Germino, Matthew J., Veblen, Thomas T., Smith, Jeremy M., Moyes, Andrew B., and Kueppers, Lara M.. Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts. United States: N. p., Web. doi:10.1111/gcb.13840.
Conlisk, Erin, Castanha, Cristina, Germino, Matthew J., Veblen, Thomas T., Smith, Jeremy M., Moyes, Andrew B., & Kueppers, Lara M.. Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts. United States. doi:10.1111/gcb.13840.
Conlisk, Erin, Castanha, Cristina, Germino, Matthew J., Veblen, Thomas T., Smith, Jeremy M., Moyes, Andrew B., and Kueppers, Lara M.. 2017. "Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts". United States. doi:10.1111/gcb.13840. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1437975.
@article{osti_1437975,
title = {Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts},
author = {Conlisk, Erin and Castanha, Cristina and Germino, Matthew J. and Veblen, Thomas T. and Smith, Jeremy M. and Moyes, Andrew B. and Kueppers, Lara M.},
abstractNote = {Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. In this study, we present results from a common garden, climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine, a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low-elevation provenance had more than three-fold greater recruitment to their third year than seeds from a high-elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range and across climate manipulations. Heating halved recruitment to the third year of both low- and high-elevation seed sources across the elevation gradient, while watering more than doubled recruitment, alleviating some of the negative effects of heating. Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long-term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid postfire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low-elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiple centuries. In conclusion, our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species’ range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change.},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.13840},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
number = 1,
volume = 24,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {7}
}